Friday, April 22, 2011

First Two Weeks, The Paul Reiser Show


THE PAUL REISER SHOW (NBC)



WEEK ONE
The Paul Reiser Show was totally dead on arrival. Its 1.1 demo might be the lowest non-Friday scripted premiere on the big 4 in the regular season ever. (Though several Friday shows have had a 1.1 or slightly lower.) It didn't get a lot of help from its 1.4 Community lead-in, but you can't really blame your lead-in but so much when you're losing 20%+ of it on premiere night. It didn't even compare favorably with previous failed occupant Perfect Couples, beating only the last two episodes of that (both of which were mixed in with repeats).

WEEK TWO
Then came the 18% drop in week two, taking it to a 0.9 demo. That left the show behind all Perfect Couples episodes. It dropped 36% from its already-weak Community lead-in.

PROGNOSIS
This is another "beat the cancellation announcement" posting. I'm pretty doubtful Paul Reiser will even air next week, as I can't imagine NBC wanting it leading into Steve Carell's The Office finale. We'll see, but definitely no renewal. At least it got some kind of shot, which didn't appear to be in the cards deep into the regular season, but it didn't make much of it.

Side note: I believe this ends the "First Two Weeks" experiment for this season. In this horrific year for new shows, quite possibly as many as five of the seven "excellent" shows are headed for cancellation. We'll re-evaluate over the summer, but thanks for reading!

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Breaking In 3.5
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)

Body of Proof 3.1
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Happy Endings 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4 
Off the Map 2.3

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Chaos (1.4)
Lone Star 1.3
THE PAUL REISER SHOW 1.1

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%

The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Chaos -18%
THE PAUL REISER SHOW -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22% 
Body of Proof -23%

Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Breaking In -26%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Happy Endings -32%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly, No Ordinary Family (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, Outsourced, Hellcats (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, The Defenders, Breaking In (4 points), Running Wilde, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Body of Proof (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law, Happy Endings (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples, Chaos, THE PAUL REISER SHOW (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

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