Thursday, April 7, 2011

First Two Weeks, Body of Proof


Body of Proof started pretty well, pulling a 3.1 demo. That trails only Mr. Sunshine's 3.7 and No Ordinary Family's 3.2 among ABC shows this season. It did have a big lead-in, as the 4.3 for the DWTS results show was one of that show's stronger recent Tuesday efforts. But you certainly have to like it a lot better than the Detroit 1-8-7 premiere, which got a 2.3 out of a 4.4 for Dancing. Another pertinent comparison is to the premiere of similar procedural Castle, which got a 3.0 back on 3/9/09 out of a 6.1 premiere for Dancing. Compared to those, Body looks pretty good.

I wasn't sure at first whether I should make "week two" the second overall airing (on the next Sunday after Desperate Housewives) or the second airing in the Tuesday timeslot. I decided a few days back to go with the second timeslot airing, but it turns out neither comparison was hugely helpful in terms of raw numbers. The 2.4 for Body of Proof's second Tuesday episode dropped 23% from the premiere. That ain't good. But it's fairly misleading, too; the Dancing results also took a huge dive in their second week, down 28% to a mere 3.2.

Even with the huge lead-in drop, the week two result was nothing special. And we have a third data point (the 2.0 demo on Sunday leading out of a 2.9 for Desperate Housewives) to put in our pocket, and that one's also fairly underwhelming. But at this stage of the game, there's really no other ABC scripted newbie that has much of a case for renewal outside of, "Well, none of the other guys are renewable!" Body of Proof has certainly taken over as the leading candidate for renewal on a network where no other new drama is close to a 2.0, and it's honestly got a long way to drop before it would be out of a "pity renewal" territory. The indicators don't look great, but the "system" below seems a lost cause at this point anyway with the new shows collectively doing so poorly this season. I really don't feel I have any choice but to predict a renewal right now.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Body of Proof 3.1
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0 
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4

Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2 
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1 
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5% 
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%

Body of Proof -23%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Outsourced (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (4 points), Running Wilde, The Defenders, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law, Body of Proof (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Body of Proof had over 11 million at 10p. Detroit's second week had a 2.1 (and 8.7 million) out of a 3.8 for the DWTS results.

Same week last year V's second week had an identical 2.4 but it was out of a 3.9 from LOST. Also BOP had over 11 million viewers and V had just over 5 million.

Obviously time will tell and it's no gurantee that the show will work, but I cant remember the last time ABC pulled 11 million at 10p out of a 15 million lead in and considering DWTS dropped more than a FULL point in the demo, a .7 drop for BOP isn't horrible. IF it maintains in that area (yes a big if) ABC will be thrilled

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