Saturday, September 21, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 10/9c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 10:00 6.4 17 -20% 21 29.4 17 22% 17

This hour was down the most year-to-year of any! It seems CBS gets much of the blame, with its 1.25 slot average down over 30% from last year's 1.80. 48 Hours was down more than usual, but a large chunk of that probably comes down to its football games; LSU/Alabama scored a 4.0 (down from last year's 7.2). It also had a second game last year (2.8) but just the one this time.



The Shows:

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres August 31 1.30
Best Case: The premiere last Saturday was up a tenth year-to-year, and ABC's conferences are generally more interesting. Let's take it back up to just above its 2011 average at 2.30.

Worst Case:
The premiere would've been down if not for the game being so good. The increasingly fragmented world of college football TV takes a chunk out of the biggest stage. ABC is overrun with blowouts. Down 15% to a 1.82.

Likeliest:
I guess I'm cheating a bit here since the first rating of the season (the 3.1 for the premiere) is already out. But last year the show that had already premiered as of its post (America's Next Top Model) ended up being one of my biggest misses. So I'll try not to be too influenced. I'm saying this ends up close to even with a 2.14. I think the difference in quality of games with Fox will grow.
Slot Orig Avg
n/a
2.15Occupants

Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
-4% hit(Fri)2.15 2.46
True Sitch
2.46 -13%
Last Pick Miss
2.05 +5%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:30



Image 48 Hours Slot Average
Premieres September 28 1.25
Best Case: +4%. 1.05.

Worst Case:
-20%. 0.81.

Likeliest:
Is anyone reading this? Can't go but so wrong with a relatively normal drop for a newsmagazine: -8% to a 0.93.
Slot Orig Avg
1.02
1.01Occupants
48 Hours
y2y Label
-13% flop1.03 1.28
True Sitch
1.24 -19%
Last Pick Miss
1.10 -8%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 10:00



Image CFB on Fox Slot Average
Premieres September 7 n/a
Best Case: There just wasn't that much awareness that Fox was airing football last year! The games are constantly promoed on the new Fox Sports 1. A bunch of compelling stories pop up out of nowhere in the Big 12 and Pac 12. It grows 20% to a 1.27.

Worst Case:
The Big 12 has no great teams, and the Pac 12's great teams are decidedly un-sexy. There's just no real interest in these games compared to the SEC/ACC/Big 10 fare over on ABC. Dives to a measly 0.90.

Likeliest:
I'm going pretty close to the worst case here. Maybe I'm an east coast homer, but I just don't see the Big 12 and Pac 12 being as interesting going into the season unless USC surprises (and they were a big disappointment that may have hurt Fox last year). Down a tenth to a 0.96.
Slot Orig Avg
n/a
1.06Occupants

CFB on Fox
y2y Label

flop1.06 1.16
True Sitch
1.16 -9%
Last Pick Miss
1.20 -12%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:00



The Network to Watch: I guess Fox, since they're still kind of new to this primetime football thing?

The Picks: Whichever college football game I like best!

2 comments:

Spot said...

No comment.


My picks:
Sports, mostly NASCAR. Otherwise, taking a flyer and playing video games.

Spot said...

"Is anyone reading this?"

I got a nice chuckle! Shortest write-up yet!

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