Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 9/24/13: Will ABC Be S.H.I.E.L.Ded From Fall Disaster?


Premiere Tuesday has a lot going on (why couldn't some of it get pushed to shockingly dull premiere Wednesday?!) but there's nothing bigger than the premiere of the fall's highest-awareness drama. Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is finally here, and the expectations will be high now that two new broadcast dramas have already premiered very well. Unlike those, SHIELD has to self-start, but with the Marvel brand on its side, that shouldn't be a problem. The biggest obstacle to stratospheric numbers may be the competition, which includes The Voice and an NCIS premiere.

Over/Under: 3.75.

23 comments:

Spot said...

OVER at 3.9. If V and FlashForward can debut big back then, I think SHIELD also can despite the lower A18-49 levels compared to 2-3 yrs ago plus the heavier competition it'll face.

Spot said...

Over!

Spot said...

The exclamation point has convinced me. Over!

Spot said...

I'm on vacation, sitting on the roof porch and sipping a vodka lemonade by the beach. How could I possibly be in a pessimistic state of mind about anything? Over.

Spot said...

Ahah, I have been doing terribly on these lately so don't trust me too much. That being said, I am actually somehow confident about this one.

Spot said...

I say it drops a huge number, and that NCIS is pretty big, too.


SHIELD: 4.2
NCIS: 3.8
Voice: 4.5
Originals: 1.3

Spot said...

Over.


I want this to be huge.

Spot said...

At the risk of missing as big as last night, here are my full predictions:


SHIELD: 3.5
Goldbergs: 2.7
Trophy Wife: 2.4
Lucky 7: 1.5


NCIS: 3.6
NCIS:LA: 3.2
POI: 2.9


Voice: 4.7
Chicago Fire: 2.9


Dads: 1.7
B 9-9: 2.3
New Girl: 2.7
Mindy: 1.7


Who's Line: 0.7
Capture: 0.4

Spot said...

You certainly are bold in predicting an unexpected night as is today! My main disagreements are CBS 9-11, I don't see them doing that well, especially LA, I doubt it breaks a 3 facing the voice.

Spot said...

I'd like to change my guess to "over". 4ish.

Spot said...

I will miss huge on something. If Lucky 7 gets an 0.7, tomorrow's headlines would write themselves! Could I miss on SHIELD? Yes, but I think that it stays in the 3's. I do think that yesterday's +9% was at least somewhat organic and that we will see a roughly flat season this year.

Spot said...

I have three reservations concerning the flat season argument:
1) Networks have A LOT of midseason shows and an incredible majority of them seems bound to flop in a really bad way
2) Even though there aren't many sophmores, I think most of them were mistakes that will fall badly this year
3) Sundays


I think we are in for a decline that will not be that far off from the one from last year.

Spot said...

1. The networks may not air all of the midseason shows. Some also look decent (particularly CBS's ones).
2. Even if a lot of sophomores take decent declines, it will not affect the league average much, as they were so low last year.
3. Again, the big hits during the week impact the average much more than anything (except football) on Sundays.

Spot said...

Over. Hopefully i got it the right format this time. I really need to stop posting when I'm tired

Spot said...

I'm going under (at a still strong 3.7!)

Spot said...

Over. I'm hoping it reaches the low 4's.

Spot said...

I think it's got enough heat. Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

The premiere Monday 8/7c hour had The Voice in the mid-high 4s, HIMYM in the mid-3s, and Bones and DWTS hanging around a 2. That adds up to a total 12.5 at most. I don't know how much that big-four total was depressed by MNF, but I'm guessing not much.

This 8/7c hour had The Voice likely hanging around a 4, NCIS in the mid-high 3s, and the FOX comedies in the mid-1s. That comes to a low-9 total. Is there room for SHIELD to get a 3.8 against those? Based on Monday, no.

But I can't bring myself to go under on this. Which is ridiculous, because I did for Survivor! And this feels like the sort of premiere that will draw a lot of M18-34 who wouldn't have been watching broadcast TV on Monday - people who'd have been watching MNF, people who'd have been watching RAW, people who'd have been playing video games. So the big-four total should be higher for Tuesday.

Over. And I'm going to regret this.

Spot said...

Under

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