Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 9/17/13: Has Fox Tuesday Got Nine-Nine Problems?


Fox continues its early launch of scripted programs with tonight's new comedies Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The shows may have one of the largest discrepancies in critical reception ever for two shows paired together, with Dads riding a pathetic 19 Metascore compared to Nine-Nine's 72 at the time of this writing. Tonight is absolutely essential for these shows; unlike last night's Sleepy Hollow, they go up against basically nothing (Million Second Quiz and repeats of NCIS and Iron Man 2) and they will face an absolute onslaught from Agents of SHIELD, NCIS and The Voice next week. Whatever happens tonight, there's a good chance we're in for massive week two declines, so a bad start tonight means you can probably pretty much forget about these shows. Has Fox Tuesday got Nine-Nine problems? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 17, 2013.



Recent Fox Comedy Premieres
3.1 (Raising Hope, 9/21/10, 5.6 Glee)
2.4 (Running Wilde, 9/21/10, 3.1 Raising Hope)
1.9 (Traffic Light, 2/8/11, 2.7 Raising Hope)
3.5 (Breaking In, 4/6/11, 7.8 American Idol)
4.8 (New Girl, 9/20/11, 4.0 Glee)
2.8 (I Hate My Teenage Daughter, 11/30/11, 4.1 X Factor)
2.1 (Ben and Kate, 9/25/12, 2.8 New Girl)
2.4 (The Mindy Project, 9/25/12, 2.8 New Girl)

Most of the Fox comedies have started decently enough, but then most of them had pretty good lead-in support. That won't be the case here, as this mis-matched duo has to self-start. Still, these shows have attracted enough attention that they could get close to the numbers for the relatively unappealing Ben and Kate against no competition.

Dads PLUS Brooklyn Nine-Nine Over/Under: 3.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.



28 comments:

Spot said...

Possibly the weakest competition for a premiere I've ever seen. And that Sleepy Hollow number suggests there were plenty of demo eyeballs that caught the trailers for tonight's comedy hour.

Over, but with Dads getting one of the biggest week two drops ever recorded in the Spotted database.

Spot said...

Over.


(Sorry to nitpick but thought I'd point out Glee should be down as a 4.0 on 9/20/11 - hopefully BNN grows tonight just like NG did to pick up the slack from Dads).

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Not a comedy

Spot said...

Over.


Dads- 2.2
Brooklyn 9-9- 2.5


TOTAL: 4.7

Spot said...

Didn't Sleepy Hollow go against pretty much nothing? Well, I guess DWTS which would seem to have low viewer overlap.

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

DWTS, American Ninja Warrior and the comedy repeats were all much stronger than what their respective networks will offer tonight. (Plus Monday Night Football.) I agree there wasn't much overlap, but you can say that of what Sleepy Hollow faces in the regular season too.

Spot said...

Three weeks ago I would have taken the under, but I'll bet on Fox continuing to ride a decent first-week wave and say over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Dads: 2.2
9-9: 2.4


Over, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. I have to admit that I boosted each number by three tenths after my big Sleepy Hollow miss.

Spot said...

Under. Dads will tank immediately, and even if Brooklyn 9-9 doesn't get dragged down to the same number (or worse!), I don't think it does well enough to cover the difference.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Dads will outrated Brooklyn Nine Nine 2.2 to 1.8. OVER.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. I think the insane level of negative Dads criticism should attract viewers looking to find out just how bad it is, along with Family Guy fans, and B99 should be enough to garner a decent sampling audience as long as Dads isn't so bad it loses its audience before the episode is over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Dads: 1.9
Nine-Nine: 2.0
Total of 2.9, so barely Over. I don't think either will really succeed (although I watched & like B99), but there's zero competition.

Spot said...

Dads was so good! The joke about the ways to kill Hitler was very politically incorrect, but one of the funniest things I have seen on TV in a long time.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'm picking over. This is your chance to break out.

Spot said...

Over!

Spot said...

A bit over. I could see both getting in the low-2 range. Promotion has been pretty good, and there's no competition.


Long-term, I think Dads fizzles fast because shows *this* bad basically never succeed. I think Brooklyn Nine-Nine will probably be the 30 Rock/Mindy Project of this season - low-rated from the start, but keeps getting renewed because of the networks' trust in the creative talent behind the show.

Spot said...

Unfortunately, I underestimated America's capacity for idiocy re: Dads. Ironically, I figured 2.5 would be about the upper limit for Brooklyn 99 regardless of the Dads rating.

Spot said...

I stuck with the Dads pilot because I like the actors. It was uneven, but there was enough there to give it a second look.

Spot said...

I like Seth Green as much as the next Robot Chicken fan, but if I really want to see/hear him on my TV, I'll just stick w/ that.

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