Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 2/4/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• As usual, the post-Super Bowl exposure was meaningless to the lead-outs in their regular slots. But this might have been even more disappointing than usual, as New Girl (1.6) and the 9:30 debut of Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.4) were significantly down from their last originals. (Worth noting that those last 1.9's came against basically no competition; they were on par with the episodes before that.) The real winner on Fox was probably Dads (1.5), which held onto its recent against-no-competition 1.5 level despite the returns of NCIS (3.1) and Agents of SHIELD (2.2). This may well end up being better than what Glee does here later in the season.

• On a nearly all-original night, almost everything else was pretty steady. Perhaps Tuesday's weirdest result was a major spike for CBS' NCIS: Los Angeles, though it was tempered just a bit in finals. And NBC wrapped up The Biggest Loser's season (2.2) at 19% behind the 2013 finale number, though this was the first time since the new year that TBL has cracked the 2's.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/21/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• With the regular 2.0+ draws on CBS and ABC all taking the week off, pretty much everything was able to benefit or at least stay steady. The only truly striking growth came from Fox's comedy lineup, especially newbie Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.9). Though it faced repeats from both its major competitors, it was still the show's best rating since the pilot (and it hasn't even done better than 1.6 since week two).  Dads (1.5), New Girl (1.9) and the last pre-hiatus episode of The Mindy Project (1.5) also grew by double digits.

• The only shows on the week-to-week downside were ABC's comedies The Goldbergs (1.5) and Trophy Wife (0.9), largely because of the Agents of SHIELD repeat (0.9) at 8/7c. Goldbergs still did a tenth better than its last episode after repeat SHIELD (1.4 on 12/3/13), but Trophy Wife's 0.9 was a new series low that got even uglier after finals.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/14/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Almost everything was even to slightly down on an all-original Tuesday. 
• The only week-to-week grower was The Goldbergs (1.8), which beat New Girl again and hit its best rating since early October.
• The only multiple-tenth movers: Dads (1.2), which plummeted after its somewhat decent number last week; Chicago Fire (1.8), down a couple notches from its impressive without-Voice premiere; and week two of Killer Women (0.7), which is just hoping that the quick hook on The Assets means ABC will want to avoid a double-cancellation for the immediate future. After finals, The Mindy Project (1.1) joined the club, hitting a new season/series low.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/7/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It ain't easy to skew older than an NCIS, but CBS' premiere of Intelligence (2.4) pulled it off, hanging a typical NCIS: Los Angeles demo rating but with a million or two more total viewers (16.59m). Not great, not horrible, and not really telling either way about the show's prospects on Monday.

• As for the night's other series premiere, ABC's Killer Women (0.9) was predictably killed by the wretched timeslot situation. I thought it might be a little less disastrous because it seemed like something that could tap into the Dancing with the Stars/Castle crowd, and the skew somewhat suggests that (it grew slightly from Trophy Wife in total viewers), but unfortunately a lot of those people probably had no idea this show existed.

• The big four were all original all the time, and here are a few other quick notes:
• ABC's Agents of SHIELD adjusted up to a tick above the very mediocre number it took into hiatus.
• Fox hit a new low with increasingly troubling New Girl, which lost head-to-head to The Goldbergs for the first time since October 1 and didn't really even look all that different from the other Fox comedies. It'll be a more favorable story for New Girl in 18-34 numbers, as always, but this isn't a good result... especially since The Voice isn't even around as competition anymore.
• NBC's The Biggest Loser and Chicago Fire were both a bit lower than when they aired alongside The Voice in the fall, but not disappointingly so.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/3/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Tuesday presented an opportunity to see Fox's comedies under new situations. Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine benefited a bit from a very easy timeslot opposite repeats of both NCIS and Agents of SHIELD, while The Mindy Project suffered a bit after a repeat of New Girl.

• ABC's comedies also saw a situation change with lead-in SHIELD in repeats. Their first airing in this situation was arguably what got these shows their back nines, but the second one didn't go quite as well for The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife, though Goldbergs still built big from the SHIELD repeat. And the alphabet's latest stab at 10/9c, the premiere of Primetime: What Would You Do?, was notably weaker than when it aired on Friday last year.

• NBC was on the upswing vs. the smattering of repeats with The Biggest Loser, The Voice and Chicago Fire all hitting their best numbers in several weeks.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/15/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC had a passable but modest return from The Biggest Loser at 8/7c, and it skewed way older than last season; it actually had about the same number of total viewers as the 3.0 Sunday preview in January but was down a quarter in the demo. The Voice also weakened in its first one-hour episode.

• ABC's The Goldbergs continued the awesome tradition of comedies taking a huge dip the week after I say they're getting renewed. It was surrounded by the the barely-down Agents of SHIELD and Trophy Wife.

• Fox had the end of the ALCS game leading into their Tuesday comedy lineup, and after a finals uptick maybe that was a bit of a difference-maker for Dads. And New Girl had a weak night at 9:00.

• Free of The Voice competition at 8/7c, NCIS had a nice bounce-back at 8/7c, as did Person of Interest at 10/9c, but the middle hour was merely steady against the original return of The Voice.

• The CW had a second straight outstanding Tuesday as The Originals improbably perked up by a couple ticks in its second Tuesday airing. It actually did better than last week's episode of mothership The Vampire Diaries!

•  A note on the Ty2y stats: the big four simulcast a debate on this night a year ago.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/1/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• As it turned out, broadcast TV's resurgence on Tuesday night was very short-lived. The headliner has got to be ABC, where last week's historically huge premiere of Agents of SHIELD came down a disheartening 30% and took everything else with it. The Goldbergs actually had ABC's smallest percentage drop at "just" 29% (though it may go down in finals), but the bleeding accelerated in the second half of the evening with Trophy Wife (1.4, -39%) and Lucky 7 (adjusting down to a 0.7, down 46%!). Could L7 go off the sked this week? After the finals downtick, it looks even likelier.

• Though everyone will be talking about ABC, there were lots of big drops on the other networks too. Fox's 8:00 hour officially became a problem with Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, while CBS was down a tick with the NCIS mothership on Cote De Pablo's departure night, then a little more in the subsequent hours.

• Even after a two-tenth downward adjustment in finals, NBC's Chicago Fire still impressed, down just a tick in its second week on Tuesday.

• Despite all the carnage, the big four were still up a whooping 15% year-to-year vs. Tuesday #2 in 2012, though the main reason behind this (the extra hour of The Voice, which boosts NBC to +78%) will go away starting next week.

First Two Weeks, Dads

WEEK ONE
Dads was one of the season's worst-reviewed new shows, but that didn't stop a somewhat reasonable audience from showing up for the premiere. It averaged a 2.2 demo on pre-premiere Tuesday, though it faced virtually nothing: a rebroadcast of Iron Man 2 on ABC (1.0 in the 8:00 hour), CBS' NCIS repeat (1.4) and NBC's The Million Second Quiz (1.1). Though its newbie teammate Brooklyn Nine-Nine built by a few ticks at 8:30, Dads was not the weakest comedy of Fox's lineup. It did outrate weakling The Mindy Project (1.9).

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/24/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Welcome to television, Marvel. Agents of SHIELD began at a number that puts it in the pantheon of recent series premieres, especially once you adjust for the ratings environment. You can count on one hand the number of scripted shows in the last decade that have premiered at even double the big four's entertainment original average, and SHIELD looks like it could be at... 2.4x? 2.5x the league average? It could even out-Plus the 2008 premiere of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which scored a 7.7 in 2008 (2.35x the league average). And that was with a playoff football lead-in!

• Personally I say the SHIELD launch far outweighs any of ABC's bad news, but there was bad news to be sure. The erosion was steep throughout ABC's all-new Tuesday, from The Goldbergs to Trophy Wife to Lucky 7. It's abundantly obvious that Lucky 7 is not at all long for this world, but the comedies are not quite as clear just yet.

• NBC won its second straight night behind The Voice. It built huge in the much weaker 9:00 hour (averaging a prelim 5.0/5.3), which gave a significant boost to the season two premiere of Chicago Fire, four tenths above its previous series high.

• CBS remained respectable with the NCIS pair, with the mothership adjusting up in finals to erode the exact same amount year-to-year (-12%) against SHIELD as NCIS: Los Angeles (-12%) at 9:00. But the network had a thud at 10/9c for the second straight night with Person of Interest (2.3). It actually dropped more year-to-year in its move to Tuesday (-21%) than either of the NCIS twins, though it was down a little less in the timeslot (-8% vs. Vegas). It's disappointing for PoI, but it could look like an all-star once the network's other 10:00 results come in.

• I said last week that the key for the new Fox comedies was that they had to be able to withstand a one-third drop. And that's pretty much exactly what happened for Dads (-32%) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (-31%). Against a combined 12.0 rating from the Big Three, I don't consider those all that terrible, but they won't want to drop much/any more. Returnees New Girl (-28%) and The Mindy Project (-21%) also came back to reality, basically reverting to their typical spring numbers.

• For the second straight night, the Big Four were up year-to-year, this time by 9%, but this time it was a little more mixed by network. NBC (riding an additional Voice hour) was up 46%, SHIELD-fueled ABC was up 41%, CBS down 11%, Fox down 32% vs. a double-New Girl premiere night last year.

SpotVault - Dads (Fox) - 2013-14 Ratings

Dads

Tuesdays, 8/7c, Fox

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/17/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• It wasn't exactly Sleepy Hollow, but Fox's Tuesday comedy lineup got off to a pretty positive start. Newbie Dads did an acceptable lead-off number, Brooklyn Nine-Nine was (to me anyway) the biggest surprise in building noticeably at 8:30, and New Girl and The Mindy Project both went nearly 50% above their spring levels. I'm not really into the year-to-year comparisons here since there was so little competition compared to their premiere week premieres a year ago. The real question is how much these numbers "matter" with an absolute onslaught arriving next week, particuarly in the new shows' 8:00 hour. The way I looked at it, at least for the new shows, was if they posted numbers that could withstand a one-third drop and still not be considered dead shows, it's a positive. It appears they at least accomplished that much (though it might be kinda close with Dads).

• The performance finale of NBC's America's Got Talent went 17% behind last year's The Voice-assisted performance finale, but tonight's season finale may be set up for year-to-year growth (since The Voice pushed it to Thursday last year).

• On the last Tuesday before ABC gets into the Agents of SHIELD business, they warmed up by airing Iron Man 2, which did OK but unspectacular for a repeat theatrical. And CBS repeated all its Tuesday drama finales to much improved results.

The Question, Tuesday 9/17/13: Has Fox Tuesday Got Nine-Nine Problems?

Fox continues its early launch of scripted programs with tonight's new comedies Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The shows may have one of the largest discrepancies in critical reception ever for two shows paired together, with Dads riding a pathetic 19 Metascore compared to Nine-Nine's 72 at the time of this writing. Tonight is absolutely essential for these shows; unlike last night's Sleepy Hollow, they go up against basically nothing (Million Second Quiz and repeats of NCIS and Iron Man 2) and they will face an absolute onslaught from Agents of SHIELD, NCIS and The Voice next week. Whatever happens tonight, there's a good chance we're in for massive week two declines, so a bad start tonight means you can probably pretty much forget about these shows. Has Fox Tuesday got Nine-Nine problems? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 17, 2013.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Tuesday 8:00	9.3	11	-9%	10	33.2	11	28%	10

The 2012-13 season was brutal for Tuesday programming in general, but the 8:00 hour was the healthiest of the night, and Tuesday was one of just two nights of the week on which the 8:00 hour had the most broadcast viewing. This was mostly because NBC scheduled The Voice in the 8:00 hour for most of its two seasons, but CBS was also at its strongest with the mothership NCIS, and ABC did best in this hour in the fall with the Dancing with the Stars results.