Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/24/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Welcome to television, Marvel. Agents of SHIELD began at a number that puts it in the pantheon of recent series premieres, especially once you adjust for the ratings environment. You can count on one hand the number of scripted shows in the last decade that have premiered at even double the big four's entertainment original average, and SHIELD looks like it could be at... 2.4x? 2.5x the league average? It could even out-Plus the 2008 premiere of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which scored a 7.7 in 2008 (2.35x the league average). And that was with a playoff football lead-in!
  • Personally I say the SHIELD launch far outweighs any of ABC's bad news, but there was bad news to be sure. The erosion was steep throughout ABC's all-new Tuesday, from The Goldbergs to Trophy Wife to Lucky 7. It's abundantly obvious that Lucky 7 is not at all long for this world, but the comedies are not quite as clear just yet.
  • NBC won its second straight night behind The Voice. It built huge in the much weaker 9:00 hour (averaging a prelim 5.0/5.3), which gave a significant boost to the season two premiere of Chicago Fire, four tenths above its previous series high.
  • CBS remained respectable with the NCIS pair, with the mothership adjusting up in finals to erode the exact same amount year-to-year (-12%) against SHIELD as NCIS: Los Angeles (-12%) at 9:00. But the network had a thud at 10/9c for the second straight night with Person of Interest (2.3). It actually dropped more year-to-year in its move to Tuesday (-21%) than either of the NCIS twins, though it was down a little less in the timeslot (-8% vs. Vegas). It's disappointing for PoI, but it could look like an all-star once the network's other 10:00 results come in.
  • I said last week that the key for the new Fox comedies was that they had to be able to withstand a one-third drop. And that's pretty much exactly what happened for Dads (-32%) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (-31%). Against a combined 12.0 rating from the Big Three, I don't consider those all that terrible, but they won't want to drop much/any more. Returnees New Girl (-28%) and The Mindy Project (-21%) also came back to reality, basically reverting to their typical spring numbers.
  • For the second straight night, the Big Four were up year-to-year, this time by 9%, but this time it was a little more mixed by network. NBC (riding an additional Voice hour) was up 46%, SHIELD-fueled ABC was up 41%, CBS down 11%, Fox down 32% vs. a double-New Girl premiere night last year.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 4.7 49% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +292% +169% 4.6
The Goldbergs 3.1 44% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +158% +29% 2.5
Trophy Wife 2.3 44% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +92% -12% 1.9
Lucky 7 1.3 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +8% -32% 1.2
ABC:+142%+41%
NCIS 3.6 23% n/an/an/a 1/1 -12% +157% -13% 3.6
NCIS: Los Angeles 3.0 23% n/an/an/a 1/1 -12% +173% -12% 2.5
Person of Interest 2.3 23% n/an/an/a 1/1 -21% +130% -8% 1.9
CBS:+154%-11%
The Voice Tue 4.7 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 +18% +169% +45% 4.5
Chicago Fire 2.7 39% n/an/an/a 1/1 +42% +13% +50% 2.0
NBC:+105%+46%
Dads 1.5 52% -0.7-32%n/a 2/2 n/a -32% -46% 1.5
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.8 57% -0.8-31%-70% 2/2 n/a -31% -14% 1.9
New Girl 2.1 66% -0.8-28%-80% 2/2 -25% -28% -25% 2.1
The Mindy Project 1.5 65% -0.4-21%-80% 2/2 -21% -21% -38% 1.5
Fox:-28%-32%
Whose Line Is It Anyway? 0.5 49% -0.4-44%n/a 2/2 n/a -44% +150% 0.5
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 42% -50% +100% 0.5
Capture 0.2 37% -0.2-50%-40% 3/3 n/a -50% +0% 0.2
CW:-48%+63%
Big5:+62%+10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

22 comments:

Spot said...

Sad for Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Maybe it will be able to get a tenth or two back if viewers drift away from SHIELD.


So what's going replace Lucky 7? I don't know if ABC will want to put another new show in that spot so quickly, and there's really nothing from midseason that fits well with the comedies. Shark Tank repeat?

Spot said...

The thing is that Betrayal will probably need replacement as well, so I really have no clue what they will do. I think they would have been better off renewing BOP to be honest, it could fill in for one of the slots.

Spot said...

How often do the big 3 have an hour with a combined 12.6 with regular entertainment programming nowadays (football aside)? I guess a 14 for the big four is more comparable, though Fox isn't impressing at all. What a big hour.

Spot said...

Second night in a row with astonishing positive year to year numbers. I am getting more and more optimistic now, but I still say there are a lot of negative signs in some places (particularly CBS) that are being overshadowed by premiere week festivities. Be back later for the longer comment!

Spot said...

I was unconvinced that SHIELD could get this kind of ratings at first. Glad I rethinked it. lol

This is so huge. ABC must be thrilled. OTOH, Lucky 7 is surely one of this season's first casualties. Primetime: What Would You Do? or 20/20 Special Edition would score more than that.

Spot said...

See, I think Betrayal is more likely to play out the string. ABC has stressed the limited-run aspect of the show (possibly because they know it's a failure, but anyway), and there's already another drama scheduled there after award season. Unless they'd just replace Betrayal with repeats, it seems like too much effort to cover for a show that already has a scheduled end date.

Spot said...

Really expecting more out of Person of Interest @ 10. I just don't know what it'll take for CBS to rebuild their edge in the hour.


Lucky 7 did about what I expected it would.


So did SHIELD.

Spot said...

Chicago Fire did better than I expected. Goldbergs too. Excited to see how both will rate next week.

Spot said...

Yeah I think you are right, it makes sense what you're saying. I also can see more upside with Betrayal than with Lucky 7 anyway (as in, there is a slightly better chance that revenge surprises and that betrayal is able to hold on to its number okayish)

Spot said...

SHIELD did better than I thought it would (beating The Voice in its shared hour!), and the hour will get easier next week with The Biggest Loser replacing The Voice. We could see an impressive week 2 hold if NCIS doesn't spike with Cote's finale episode. The Goldbergs at least appears respectable while Trophy Wife is borderline and Lucky 7 came up snake eyes.


If Person of Interest can maintain these numbers, it could still be a net positive as it improves on Vegas/Golden Boy last year. In a race against the other 10:00 shows, I think it'll be a solid second behind CSI. But right now it's difficult to not be disappointed.


Looks like moving Chicago Fire may have been the right move for the show's future (as opposed to the right move for NBC's Wednesdays).



Given how potent the Big 3 were in the 8:00 hour, I think Fox can be patient with those shows. The Mindy Project, though, did itself no favors by dropping to the same levels as Dad even in an easier slot and a compatible lead-in.

Spot said...

Doesn't TBL only premiere on Oct 8? SHIELD still gets potent competition next week. Let's see if it can hold on to a 4.0.


Re ChiFi, yup it's better for the show. I just hope that Revolution has enough juice in it to boost NBC Wednesdays by a bit, because I think Ironside will bomb.

Spot said...

CM at Tuesdays 10PM? That'll probably be a few years into the future at least.

Spot said...

Re B99, probably. But not too sure if it can do it after New Girl, the most logical place it's going to if Fox wants to save it. B99 looks to have a different skew (male?). Plus New Girl seems bound to the mid - high 1s soon. And that is the show they want to put on after the Super Bowl.

Spot said...

I think, just maybe, there is a curse on that slot. Not quite as potent as the infamous Mork and Mindy Curse, but that's the only way to explain why POI dudded out like that. And I don't think Criminal Minds would help, at any point.

Spot said...

My thoughts:


CBS- It has been the big loser so far this year, even if it does not have the worst ratings. NCIS was a minor disappointment, but I hold out hope that it could grow slightly throughout the fall. NCIS:LA was actually fairly impressive, doing about what I expected it to do, despite the mothership doing weaker. POI just might be this years Hawaii 5-0. It is a show that a year ago looked poised to eventually become the #1 drama on TV. Now, I expect it to end in 2015 after just 4 seasons.


NBC- The Voice did great and built after SHIELD left the picture. I expect it to adjust in finals, perhaps by two tenths, as it usually does. Chicago Fire also did well. You can never complain when a show premieres to a series high that is about 50% up on the year-ago episode.


FOX- There is no bright spot on FOX tonight, but the biggest disappointment is New Girl. The fact that it dropped in line with the new shows while not even having to face SHIELD is worrisome. Dads and Brooklyn 9-9 (especially Dads) really have to maintain their current levels, which is unlikely, as new shows often drop after Week 2. One will probably at least get a full season, though. Mindy actually may be the bright spot of the night, as it dropped by far the least. If it can maintain that 1.5, it may be OK. It was probably helped by being (by far?) the most female-skewing comedy on FOX last night. It may even be the most female-skewing comedy on the Big Four right now.


ABC- We need to acknowledge that a new hit is here! SHIELD vastly outperformed my expectations. It is the third new drama to have a premiere of at least a 3.5 this year, bring up questions about the return of the drama. I also think that it will adjust into the upper-4's. The Goldbergs also did well, being the #1 new comedy premiere of the season so far. Trophy Wife is not quite DOA, but close, considering the big drop it took from The Goldbergs. Those two did not seem to go well together anyway. Lucky 7 is looking like it may be the first cancellation of the season and, if it makes it to week three, be "Unlucky Oh-Seven". I kind of hope that The Goldbergs adjusts up or Trophy Wife and Lucky 7 down, so that ABC dropped by a full point or more from show to show.


CW- It was a big disappointment. WLIIA could be a regular season player at an 0.5, but it is not as big of a player for The CW as we once thought it might be. Capture, firmly on the bubble, may have sealed its fate by shredding half of its audience.

Spot said...

What is the biggest Plus premiere of the last decade besides Two Broke Girls?

Spot said...

That's the hilarious part. They could have the Season Two debut of The Following, a show that has proven its worth in the spring. Instead, they are going to go with one of the few female-focused shows they have left on the network.

Spot said...

As far as I can tell, Terminator, though I may be forgetting something.

Spot said...

Thank you

Spot said...

I have to hold myself accountable for what I said yesterday:

SHIELD: 3.5 --> 4.7 (-26%)
Goldbergs: 2.7 --> 3.1 (-13%)
Trophy Wife: 2.4--> 2.3 (+4%)
Lucky 7: 1.5--> 1.3 (+15%)

NCIS: 3.6 --> 3.6 (+0%)
NCIS:LA: 3.2 --> 3.0 (+7%)
POI: 2.9 --> 2.3 (+26%)

Voice: 4.7 --> 4.7 (+0%)
Chicago Fire: 2.9 --> 2.7 (+7%)

Dads: 1.7 --> 1.5 (+13%)
B 9-9: 2.3 --> 1.8 (+28%)
New Girl: 2.7 --> 2.1 (+29%)
Mindy: 1.7 --> 1.5 (+13%)

Who's Line: 0.7 --> 0.5 (+40%)
Capture: 0.4 --> 0.2 (+100%)

Spot said...

I did OK with my guesses


SHIELD: 4.2 --> 4.7 (-11%)
NCIS: 3.8 -->3.6 (+6%)
Voice: 4.5-->4.8 (-6%)

Spot said...

Ok, so my comments:
- ABC is a very mixed bag. However, they knew it was going to be a mixed bag and we all knew it. I think they regarded Lucky 7 as much as a placeholder as we did. Why they put it there instead of BOP and saved some promotional dollars is a mystery for me. Where it matters, Shield, they did extraordinary well. It will fall in weeks to come, sure, but for now it did all it could be expected to! Kuddos for it. I will watch it now. The comedies did okay too, especially the goldbergs. There is a lot of lead-in effect in there, I am sure, but it still quite positive. Whether it becomes legit or a go on type of fraud will remain to be seen. I don't think Trophy Wife did badly. We are now in a world where 2 Broke Girls has a 2.8 for its premiere and Mom launches to a 2.5. I think it's positive.
- CBS did well better than I expected, particularly LA. I was very aggressive with my LA prediction for the year and apparently I will be proven wrong but so far I am not 100% convinced yet - those spring drops when facing the voice were very alarming. But let's see. So far, kuddos to it. People that were expecting more out of POI are crazy. It was on par with its finale in a different timeslot, at 10pm, against another procedural show. It did well. The problem is that people convinced themselves that the show was going to be the next big thing so this will be a disappointment. I like the show a lot but I never saw all those signs. NCIS did better than I expected. I want to see how it does after Ziva's departure though, but I think part of that will be counterbalanced by the voice leaving the timeslot, so it should be better than i thought
- NBC did extraordinarily again. Not even Shield could stop the voice apparently. The show is on fire, literally. Happy for it. Speaking of fire, chicago fire did very good, as expected. But I think the half hours drop is a bit alarming. Anyway, to people saying it would flop on its own: it didn't last year, so why would it now?! Of course its numbers are higher than without lead-in, that is almost always the case when shows have a lead-in that's compatible, I don't get people's comments!
- FOX was a disaster. They need to do something ASAP and sending Bones to fridays is not the answer! I think they should send to dads to sundays or whatever it is they want to do it with it and put brooklyn after new girl. Brooklyn is still alive and kicking, I think its result is still impressive, growing out of that lead-in, on its second week, against the biggest shows on TV (and male skewing nonetheless). B99 and New Girl are the only two salvagable shows out of this block, they should act on it and not leave them on an island.
- CW wise, it was actually a good thing for Beauty and the Beast and HoD that Whose Line showed it is not of that much value during regular season. However, I still note that it was against a monstrous night, regular season is not like this 95% of the days!

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