Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Monday 9/23/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • In the last couple seasons, premiere Monday has done quite a solid job setting the tone for the season to come. This season, much of that 2012 tone (that is, NBC good/CBS bad) remains the same. The Voice remained the shining exception in an otherwise struggling talent show space with another sensational return, beating both of its 2013-14 premiere numbers (including 21% ahead of the pre-premiere week fall 2012 bow). And it launched NBC's next great drama hope The Blacklist pretty close to last year's Revolution numbers. Revolution launched last year in the pre-premiere week (and launched very well), so this is a great start.
  • The other big story of premiere Monday 2012 was the CBS softness, and it got even worse in 2013. Though How I Met Your Mother looked good, up a tenth year-to-year, it was pretty much an isolated incident; 2 Broke Girls (2.8) took a big dive at 9:00, Mom (2.5) lost a little more at 9:30 and Hostages (1.8) was basically dead on arrival at 10:00. There's a lot of schedule yet to premiere, but right now it looks like it will probably need a better-than-usual post-premiere hold just to make it through its 15 episodes on Monday.
  • The biggest change from Day One 2012? It looks like Fox's new drama is legit. Sleepy Hollow (3.1) lost just 11% week-to-week despite increased competition on NBC/CBS and remained well over double last year's occupant The Mob Doctor (1.3 on 9/24/12).
  • As in the spring, Dancing with the Stars' resurgence lasted only as long as The Voice's absence. In week two, it shed a quarter of its 3.1 demo audience from last week's premiere. But that was somewhat inevitable, and once you get past the week-to-week trend it may still be a positive when the dust settles. Last year's second week had just a 2.1. The network also upticked year-to-year at 10/9c with the premiere of Castle.
  • All of this adds up to the Big Four going +10% vs. premiere Monday 2012. ABC -5%, CBS -1%, NBC +15%, Fox +37%. There are some caveats that inflate this somewhat; NBC had a series premiere at 10 rather than a week two, CBS had a second How I Met Your Mother this year, etc. But overall, it's definitely a step up in tone from last year.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars Mon 2.3 22% -0.8-26%n/a 2/2 -8% -26% -9% 2.3
Castle 2.2 24% n/an/an/a 1/1 +5% +69% +5% 2.2
ABC:-9%-5%
How I Met Your Mother 3.7 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 +3% +155% +23% 3.4
2 Broke Girls 2.8 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 -24% +87% -24% 2.8
Mom 2.5 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +39% -19% 2.4
Hostages 1.8 31% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -36% -3% 1.9
CBS:+38%-1%
The Voice Mon 5.1 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 +21% +308% +17% 4.8
The Blacklist 3.8 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +533% +10% 3.4
NBC:+352%+15%
Bones 1.9 36% -0.4-17%n/a 2/2 -17% -17% -19% 1.8
Sleepy Hollow 3.1 46% -0.4-11%-40% 2/2 n/a -11% +138% 3.3
Fox:-14%+37%
Hart of Dixie (R) 0.2 48% +0% -20% 0.2
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.2 40% +0% +0% 0.2
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 48% +50% +50% 0.3
CW:+13%+0%
Big5:+44%+10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

9 comments:

Spot said...

Glad to see Sleepy Hollow hold on.



I don't like the show, but I do feel a little bad for 2 Broke Girls. They were thrown into the anchor position too early.

Spot said...

will you post the full table with preliminary ratings, or skip that and post finals only?
Cause I'm very curious what were the total viewers for HIMYM in each half, and find them anywhere :p (and the final halves won't be available until some longer time I guess?)

Spot said...

HIMYM prelims were 9.01m / 9.36m

Spot said...

A funeral march for Hostages. The bell will toll, and sooner rather than later.

Spot said...

Wow! Didn't see CBS flopping that hard! HIMYM couldn't even get to a 4 at 8:30 and 2.5 for a CBS comedy premiere is pretty bad. Thougth Hostages would come out weak, but not so weak.


Hoping The Blacklist can hold most of that audience for the next weeks.

Spot said...

Not so much thrown into the anchor position too early as given the wrong lead-in. Hard not to give the biggest new sitcom in years (at least in the relative landscape) an anchor role, although it was a temptation that still should have been resisted after the new sitcom strikeout led to standing pat at three hours in 2012.

Looks like CBS's drama development slate was as bad as last year's comedy slate. Under The Dome for a regular season slot if Intelligence falls hard midseason? Massive night for FOX, I thought they'd lose this season even with the SB and be headed for NBC territory in a couple of years, but Sleepy Hollow looks like a breakout. Bones is all but locked in for Friday now.

Spot said...

Wow. That is a horrible start for CBS Mondays. In hindsight, maybe 2BG should have followed Big Bang for a couple years. I'm surprised that it's so weak. The story of its first season was how it was always a tick stronger than Two and a Half Men once the hype died down.

Spot said...

Comments:
- While I am scared to be overly optimistic and think there are quite a few caveats ahead, there is no denying that this was generally a positive start for the season in most cases.
- Even though CBS came in second for the night, it almost feels like they are the ones that did worst, even though they didn't even fall that much if compared to ABC for instance. I think they are in real trouble here. Hostages is a goner, and even though I think Intelligence will fare better and likely score another season, it will not be a hit as CBS needs it to be. I think they made a mistake using this timeslot to launch their dramas. It is just not easy to be launched after a comedy block that is more incompatible than the other dramas, especially a weakened comedy block. I think there is something to be said for the fact that the previous dramas here were somehow lighter sunny dramas (H50, CSI Miami). I think Intelligence should have been launched after POI, it was screaming for that, but anyway. Add to that the competition in the timeslot and it was a bad move. On the comedy department, things aren't looking that much better. I expect slightly better from Mother but I still think it will end the year as the 2nd comedy on CBS and probably third overall and it was by far their best performer of the night. Two Broke Girls and Mom will fall even harder when We Are Men debuts (seriously, how can we all agree on this but CBS?!). I don't know what they should do to be honest other than hurry up in plugging friends with better lives after Mother come January.
- FOX did very well to, I am quite happy for Sleepy Hollow. I wasn't that excited for the show before but I am loving it. I wish Bones could have stayed higher than 2.0, but let's see how the x-factor does when it has to face competition. I think it will be very humiliating, particularly Thursday when it faces an entire hour of big bang. At this point, I think it is between bones moving to Friday and a complete schedule re-shuffle that sends x-factor to Fridays or reduces its hours. And I say again: sleepy hollow did remarkably well!
- ABC was stable and that is okay I guess, it could be much worse. I have hated on them so much for keeping Sundays and Mondays the same, but last night was actually a point for them for doing it, because new shows could have tanked way more than this. However, the fact that DWTS takes these colossal declines when faced with the voice still shows that it should not happen. Castle did good.
- NBC is the champion. The Voice beat all of our expectations. I adore the show but I did not anticipate this much buzz for this edition. It's almost as if there is a direct transfer of viewership from FOX singing show viewers to here. I am thrilled for it. The Blacklist launched very well. I don't know what people saying that it is due to the voice were expecting. Sure it is, but so what? That is an excellent vehicle to launch shows, I don't see what the problem is.


Excited for today's ratings! Bring it on!

Spot said...

2BG gained enough from a TBBT rerun lead-in that it can't be *just* the show.

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