Friday, September 13, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 9/8c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 9:00 5.6 18 -9% 12 29.5 16 19% 18

Friday 9:00 was a middling hour on a year-to-year basis even as Shark Tank and Grimm emerged as strong players by Friday standards. Most of this blame lied with Fox, where season two of Touch couldn't even come within spitting distance of previous mediocre occupant Fringe, and especially the CW where they sent 2011-12 occupant Supernatural to greener pastures.

The Shows:

Image Shark Tank Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.65
Best Case: Once a show that had to claw and scratch for its renewals, Shark Tank now has the full weight of the ABC promo machine behind it. See this week's "Shark Tank Week," among the most promoted repeats of the whole summer. So it's able to continue growing. It averages a 1.95, (barely) becoming the first Friday show in the A18-49+ era to beat the league average.

Worst Case:
It's almost inevitable nowadays that a reality hit will get overexposed. And it happens to Shark Tank, as ABC ends up having to use its repeats to plug its many trouble spots. By season's end, the burnout is obvious as it's in the low ones. It's down over 20% to a 1.46.

Though this is one of my favorite shows, and it ended the season very strongly, I just don't see it getting even bigger on Friday night. It'll go up a bit more in Plus, perhaps even edging the current A18-49+ record holders for Friday, but it's down just a bit in raw numbers to 1.80, beginning to tail off in the second half of the season.
Slot Orig Avg
Primetime: What Would You Do?
y2y Label
+15% hit(Fri)1.50 1.54
True SitchShark Tank
2.16 -15%
Last Pick Miss1.92 2.29
1.72 +8%
2012-13 Slot
Fri 8:00, Fri 9:00

Image Hawaii Five-0 Slot Average
Premieres September 27 1.20
Best Case: Five-0 might actually be a stronger show than it appears; after all, it's had to tangle head-to-head with one of the few legit procedurals (Castle) on a network other than CBS. It's more compatible with Undercover Boss than it was with the Monday comedies. It drops just 28% in its Friday move to a 1.55, beating Grimm to become a very strong second place option.

Worst Case:
This action-oriented procedural skews a little younger than most crime dramas, which means it's not a good fit for Friday. Its ratings cut in half to 1.08.

This show was a bit weaker in Plus last season than CSI: NY in its final pre-Friday season. It may also be a slightly worse fit for Friday night, but my guess is it's close to the same. So I'll say it's just a little weaker than NY was on Friday with a 1.25 average, down the same 42% as NY in its move to Friday, and it's an underwhelming but ultimately acceptable level at least for this and one more season.
Slot Orig Avg
Made in Jersey
y2y Label
-25% solid0.95 1.06
True SitchCSI: NY
2.01 +7%
Last Pick Miss1.43 1.57
2.63 -18%Vegas
2012-13 Slot
Monday 10:000.90 1.13

Image Grimm Slot Average
Premieres October 25 1.36
Best Case: There's a lot to like going into this season. The show keeps improving, Fox has gotten out of the genre drama business in the hour, and NBC's plan for Friday is generally a lot better. Dateline won't be all that compatible, but it'll at least provide a steady low-1's base. Grows another 6% to a 1.73 and is in a virtual tie for first place in the hour.

Worst Case:
While Grimm was a pleasant surprise in season one, and again in season two, we've passed the point where genre dramas peak in interest. It misses out on the first month of the season when its ratings would be highest, and H5-0 has snatched up all the casual viewers by then. From here, it's all downhill. Down 25% to a third-place 1.22.

The timeslot is more favorable, so I don't think this is the year it falls apart. But it's also probably past the point of bringing in new fans. I'll say it's -5% from its Friday number on the right, averaging a 1.48.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
+6% solid(Fri)1.56 1.85
True SitchDateline Fri
1.71 -5%
Last Pick Miss1.29 1.56
1.45 +12%
2012-13 Slot
M 10:00, F 9:00, Tu 10:00

Fox/CW notes: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, in this case Raising Hope, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass. I'm also not doing a BC/WC for the early fall plan, repeats of Sleepy Hollow, or for the CW's America's Next Top Model, which has already been running for a month and a half. Sorry, completists!

The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Friday Night Smackdown!Syfyongoing0.74-14%

The Network to Watch: CBS. Will Hawaii Five-0 become another relatively long-term Friday option for the network?

The Picks: One of the only slots on TV where I have both my DVR tuners locked up for sure, and it's on Friday! I love me some Shark Tank and some Grimm. I'd like to try out Enlisted if it actually premieres in this hour, but it's not knocking off either of those.


Spot said...

Another content-diverse hour for the "Big 4" here with reality, procedural, genre drama, and sitcoms if Fox follows through on its plan with Raising Hope. Enlisted being delayed until January for "additional promotion" is not promising for the overall plan, though...

If any show is going to necessitate the creation of a big hit(Fri) label, it'd be Shark Tank. I expect Grimm to launch high again with a Halloween-timed debut, while I'm unsure about Hawaii's ability to hang 10 on a new night. My guess is it's a cheaper show than CSI: NY, so that combined with a hope to pad the show out for syndication helps.

Spot said...

I believe that Grimm will benefit greatly from having an actual line-up around it. I haven't forgotten that the episode that aired right after the busted Mockingbird Lane pilot (which I'm still surprised wasn't picked up) hit 2.0. When networks really try on Friday (ABC, CBS), they get rewarded for the most part. I say it grows to the high-1s.

Hawaii Five-O is a show on the downswing, for sure, especially after its weak post-AFC outing. However, I can't help but think that most of the show's struggles last season were mainly the result of so many people sampling Revolution. It was the buzziest show year, and it performed much better than Playboy Club and Rock Center the year before. It wasn't hurt by Smash that much because their audiences weren't similar. Once people decided that they didn't care for the newbie that much, it grew somewhat, but the damage was done. I say the drop off isn't severe, down to mid-1s.

Shark Tank will continue to surprise and delight, up to high-1s, and it becomes the first Friday show in forever to be league average.

Seriously. Lane/Grimm/Hannibal at mid-season would have been something notable.

Spot said...

H50: I like the show but I don't see this ending well. It doesn't fit on Fridays at all and it was on a strong downards trajectory last year. NY fell 22% in 18-49 terms when it moved here after friday adjustment. I say H50 drops a tiny less because it is not as much of a tired show as NY was and because it is coming of a bad situation timeslot wise. But it still falls a lot. A 1.19 and a big question mark for renewal.

Grimm: I think the show will have a better situation lead-in and lead-out wise than it did last year but I think last year's Olympics exposure helped and that won't happen this year. Besides, it will air more episodes on spring than fall, so year to year comparisons will be deflated. A 1.36 average but still a very easy renewal.

Shark Tank: I agree with you. Stronger fall than spring, still the king of the night, but overall a tiny weaker.

CW: I am not predicting Ameria's Next Top Model!

FOX: It is too messed up for me to preview it at this point. Enlisted was delayed and I doubt they will really go with back to back RH episodes starting in November so I won't comment for now.

Network to Watch: CBS, because I am curious and worried about H50

My picks: Grimm and H50

Spot said...

Watching Hawaii Five-0 myself. Both its logistics and the show itself. I personally think it'll be between Likeliest and Best.

Spot said...

I think that was 100% the case with H50 on the fall and the winter numbers actually supported that to some extent but I think it had a poor spring. But I mantain that it wasn't a weaker show than any other 10pm CBS player except for maybe CSI and The Mentalist when we look at the whole picture. All the others had exceptionally more compatible lead-ins. Elementary in particular had a very good lead-in and up until the rise in Scandal, it had no competition whatsoever there. Even CSI, which did have a clear raw numbers advantage, had a very compatible lead-in in CM. Mike and Molly is far from that compatible of a lead-in and I think that matters. Regardless, I like the show, but I can't see it doing well here. I think Sundays would have been better for it.

Spot said...

At this point, I seriously doubt we see the planned hour of comedies on FOX.

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