Friday 9:00 was a middling hour on a year-to-year basis even as Shark Tank and Grimm emerged as strong players by Friday standards. Most of this blame lied with Fox, where season two of Touch couldn't even come within spitting distance of previous mediocre occupant Fringe, and especially the CW where they sent 2011-12 occupant Supernatural to greener pastures.
|Shark Tank||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 20||1.65|
|Best Case: Once a show that had to claw and scratch for its renewals, Shark Tank now has the full weight of the ABC promo machine behind it. See this week's "Shark Tank Week," among the most promoted repeats of the whole summer. So it's able to continue growing. It averages a 1.95, (barely) becoming the first Friday show in the A18-49+ era to beat the league average.|
Worst Case: It's almost inevitable nowadays that a reality hit will get overexposed. And it happens to Shark Tank, as ABC ends up having to use its repeats to plug its many trouble spots. By season's end, the burnout is obvious as it's in the low ones. It's down over 20% to a 1.46.
Likeliest: Though this is one of my favorite shows, and it ended the season very strongly, I just don't see it getting even bigger on Friday night. It'll go up a bit more in Plus, perhaps even edging the current A18-49+ record holders for Friday, but it's down just a bit in raw numbers to 1.80, beginning to tail off in the second half of the season.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Primetime: What Would You Do?|
|Fri 8:00, Fri 9:00|
|Hawaii Five-0||Slot Average|
|Premieres September 27||1.20|
|Best Case: Five-0 might actually be a stronger show than it appears; after all, it's had to tangle head-to-head with one of the few legit procedurals (Castle) on a network other than CBS. It's more compatible with Undercover Boss than it was with the Monday comedies. It drops just 28% in its Friday move to a 1.55, beating Grimm to become a very strong second place option.|
Worst Case: This action-oriented procedural skews a little younger than most crime dramas, which means it's not a good fit for Friday. Its ratings cut in half to 1.08.
Likeliest: This show was a bit weaker in Plus last season than CSI: NY in its final pre-Friday season. It may also be a slightly worse fit for Friday night, but my guess is it's close to the same. So I'll say it's just a little weaker than NY was on Friday with a 1.25 average, down the same 42% as NY in its move to Friday, and it's an underwhelming but ultimately acceptable level at least for this and one more season.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|Made in Jersey|
|Premieres October 25||1.36|
|Best Case: There's a lot to like going into this season. The show keeps improving, Fox has gotten out of the genre drama business in the hour, and NBC's plan for Friday is generally a lot better. Dateline won't be all that compatible, but it'll at least provide a steady low-1's base. Grows another 6% to a 1.73 and is in a virtual tie for first place in the hour.|
Worst Case: While Grimm was a pleasant surprise in season one, and again in season two, we've passed the point where genre dramas peak in interest. It misses out on the first month of the season when its ratings would be highest, and H5-0 has snatched up all the casual viewers by then. From here, it's all downhill. Down 25% to a third-place 1.22.
Likeliest: The timeslot is more favorable, so I don't think this is the year it falls apart. But it's also probably past the point of bringing in new fans. I'll say it's -5% from its Friday number on the right, averaging a 1.48.
|Slot Orig Avg|
|M 10:00, F 9:00, Tu 10:00|
Fox/CW notes: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, in this case Raising Hope, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass. I'm also not doing a BC/WC for the early fall plan, repeats of Sleepy Hollow, or for the CW's America's Next Top Model, which has already been running for a month and a half. Sorry, completists!
|Friday Night Smackdown!||Syfy||ongoing||0.74||-14%|
The Network to Watch: CBS. Will Hawaii Five-0 become another relatively long-term Friday option for the network?
The Picks: One of the only slots on TV where I have both my DVR tuners locked up for sure, and it's on Friday! I love me some Shark Tank and some Grimm. I'd like to try out Enlisted if it actually premieres in this hour, but it's not knocking off either of those.