Friday, September 27, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Thursday 9/26/13

  • Through three days of the TV season, the only network without a truly great moment was CBS, and it was finally their turn to shine on Thursday. The Big Bang Theory returned in stellar fashion, growing year-to-year again, and it launched The Crazy Ones to the week's second-biggest series premiere number. It's a positive start for TCO, but a big drop in lead-in is coming next week. Free of the direct BBT lead-in, the relative softness of Two and a Half Men was on display as it shed another 25%+ from The Crazy Ones. And by 10/9c, Elementary was as "meh" as ever with a new lead-in.
  • NBC brought some new viewers to the table with the premiere of The Michael J. Fox Show (2.1/2.1), but a high percentage of them were out-of-demo, as the show skewed considerably older than has become the NBC Thursday tradition, including its very weak lead-in from Parks and Recreation. It looks like this show will be another The Office-sized demo player at best. Probably the least disappointing thing on NBC was the Thursday premiere of Parenthood, which was down some but not that much in its transition to Thursday despite not having a lot of lead-in help.

  • Fox at least initially shows little sign of a Beatles bounce or a Monteith bounce or any kind of bounce for week one of Glee, which was down huge from last year's pre-premiere week premiere and still double digits from the first in-season episode.

  • And ABC brought back Grey's Anatomy for season ten at pretty much as-expected levels, down by 23% from last year's massive 4.4 premiere.

  • So the Big Four went -3% vs. premiere Thursday 2012. NBC may have struggled, but they still built year-to-year for a fourth straight night (albeit vs. a lineup that included Up All Night and Rock Center). CBS was also up year-to-year, with the second The Big Bang Theory and minor 9:00 gains cancelling out the losses at 10/9c vs. the inflated Elementary premiere. ABC was down thanks to an Agents of SHIELD repeat at 8/7c, while Fox was down the most.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD (R) 1.2 33% +26% -47% 1.3
Grey's Anatomy 3.4 47% n/an/an/a 1/1 -23% +300% +5% 3.5
The Big Bang Theory 5.5 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 +10% +150% +10% 5.5
The Big Bang Theory 6.1 38% +0.6+11%n/a 1/2 +22% +281% +74% 5.2
The Crazy Ones 3.9 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +77% +34% 3.1
Two and a Half Men 2.9 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 -17% +61% +4% 2.4
Elementary 2.1 26% n/an/an/a 1/1 -32% +110% -32% 1.9
Parks and Recreation 1.3 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 -24% +18% -10% 1.4
The Michael J. Fox Show 2.2 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +52% +19% 2.4
Parenthood 1.6 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 -16% +113% +100% 1.5
The X Factor Thu 2.1 41% +0.1+5%n/a 2/3 -34% +5% -34% 2.3
Glee 2.0 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 -35% +82% -17% 2.1
The Vampire Diaries (R) 0.3 53% +20% +0% 0.3
America's Next Top Model (R) 0.2 44% +0% -33% 0.2

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I did overestimate MJF, but pending adjustments, I got The Crazy Ones to the tenth. Last night was probably the least surprising night of the week. There was not a number that made me look a few times to see if I was misreading something.

Spot said...

Sitcoms are good in that there is not always an overarching plot so important that you will be let down if the show is cancelled.

Spot said...

CBS: TBBT returns huge. The 8:30 episode may very well be into the 6's in finals (if it is divided). I think that we could see a series high (about a 6.7) in January, when it tends to uptick. You can never complain with a 4.0 start for a new show, even one that has a 6.0 (or so) lead in. Next week will be a good test, with The Millers (probably about a 3.5) as its lead-in. Two and a Half Men is clearly a show on its last legs, but it may stick around one more year if CBS wants to stick with 8 sitcoms. Elementary joins the muddled CBS 10 PM hour, which will feature a bunch of shows trying to stay off Friday/Sunday. I think that all of the 10 PM shows Tuesday-Thursday will be back next year, as CBS has a lot to get rid of on Friday and Sunday.

NBC: I am not at all surprised by the low premiere of P&R, but I am very disappointed in MJF's numbers. I think that it cannot drop a whole lot if it even wants a second season. What may help it is if WTTF and SSTW are DOA next week. NBC better hope that its post-Voice spring comedies do well. Parenthood returned in that same mid-to-upper-1's level that it has been at for years. It should be safe this year, but NBC's drama slate has been very impressive so far.

FOX: The X Factor is not going to go to the low 1's, as some of us hoped. I think that it will settle in the high 1's on Thursdays and low-to-mid 2's on Wednesdays. It will be interesting, though, to see if FOX wants to just focus on Idol next year. As for Glee, it seems as if its ratings were pretty consistent with last year. As for the hype about someone dying, I cannot really comment, as I have never seen an episode, and it is so far out of my wheelhouse, that I have no idea who that person even was. I bet it airs its two season renewal and then is never seen again.

ABC: Grey's had a solid return, even though it was substantially down year-to-year. You need to remember that it was one of the few positive surprises from premiere week a year ago and that it eroded throughout the season. It will be interesting to see if it grows next week, as, at least for one week, OUAT: Wonderland should be a stronger (and more compatible) lead-in than a SHIELD repeat.

Spot said...

I highly recommend Agents of Shield, I adored it! I have to check out the blacklist, haven't found the time yet

Spot said...

I agree that it was the least surprising night of the week, except for the crazy ones for me. But also, after adjustments, the big bang theory hitting a 6.1... I didn't expect that either, it's crazy. So well deserved though, I adored those episodes.

Spot said...

That's true, it costs far less than dramas, but I get attached to the characters, so I just hate to let it see go without closure

Spot said...

I think an interesting poll question could be:
#1 scripted show - Big Bang Theory vs. Walking Dead. BBT getting a 6 when it usu peaks in January, while WD has gone up each year and hit a 6 twice last year.

Spot said...

Don't worry, I still plan on getting around to it, probably tonight if I can get my roommates in one place for an hour.

Spot said...


Spot said...

Amazing! How does he do it, folks?

Spot said...

You're just jealous cause he's a rock star...

Spot said...

I saw both. They were just OK. As someone who grew up during the 90s, I can say that Wacky Robin is quite enjoyable in short spurts. If there's good stuff around him, I think it'll be fine.

Spot said...

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