Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/1/13

  • As it turned out, broadcast TV's resurgence on Tuesday night was very short-lived. The headliner has got to be ABC, where last week's historically huge premiere of Agents of SHIELD came down a disheartening 30% and took everything else with it. The Goldbergs actually had ABC's smallest percentage drop at "just" 29% (though it may go down in finals), but the bleeding accelerated in the second half of the evening with Trophy Wife (1.4, -39%) and Lucky 7 (adjusting down to a 0.7, down 46%!). Could L7 go off the sked this week? After the finals downtick, it looks even likelier.
  • Though everyone will be talking about ABC, there were lots of big drops on the other networks too. Fox's 8:00 hour officially became a problem with Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, while CBS was down a tick with the NCIS mothership on Cote De Pablo's departure night, then a little more in the subsequent hours.
  • Even after a two-tenth downward adjustment in finals, NBC's Chicago Fire still impressed, down just a tick in its second week on Tuesday.
  • Despite all the carnage, the big four were still up a whooping 15% year-to-year vs. Tuesday #2 in 2012, though the main reason behind this (the extra hour of The Voice, which boosts NBC to +78%) will go away starting next week.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 3.3 48% -30%-1.4n/a 2/2 n/a -29% +136% 3.3
The Goldbergs 2.2 46% -29%-0.9-1.4 2/2 n/a -29% +10% 1.7
Trophy Wife 1.4 41% -39%-0.9-0.9 2/2 n/a -39% -36% 1.3
Lucky 7 0.7 34% -46%-0.6-0.9 2/2 n/a -44% -56% 0.8
NCIS 3.5 22% -3%-0.1n/a 2/2 -5% -3% -5% 3.4
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.7 23% -10%-0.3-0.1 2/2 -13% -10% -11% 2.2
Person of Interest 2.1 22% -9%-0.2-0.3 2/2 -30% -9% +2% 1.8
The Voice Tue 4.5 39% -4%-0.2n/a 2/2 n/a -4% +84% 4.2
Chicago Fire 2.6 38% -4%-0.1-0.2 2/2 n/a -2% +63% 2.0
Dads 1.3 49% -13%-0.2n/a 3/3 n/a -13% -24% 1.3
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.4 52% -22%-0.4-0.2 3/3 n/a -22% -13% 1.5
New Girl 1.9 63% -10%-0.2-0.4 3/3 -32% -10% -32% 1.8
The Mindy Project 1.5 67% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/3 -21% +0% -21% 1.5
iHeartRadio Music Festival p2 0.4 47% n/a +14% -16% 0.4

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Tuesdays are back to being the Day O' Sadness.

Spot said...

NBC could not have written a better night than this. Could they win the season?

Spot said...

SNF, daylight, BBT, daylight, Voice, daylight, anything else. Get used to that, it's going to happen every week until December with a BBT in first-run.

Spot said...

I doubt it. Wednesdays and Thursdays are absolute disasters in waiting, and Sunday post football will likely get really ugly. I feel like people were saying the same 'NBC is BACK' things last season, and we know how that turned out.

Spot said...

They have two and a half dominant nights. Is that enough, when they also have two and a half terrible ones? If Friday goes well, and Sochi goes well, it might be. The latter isn't the given it would normally be for NBC, but I'm not convinced that the boycotts will make a heck of a difference.

Spot said...

I just feel like people were saying the same things last year with Revolution and Go On as they are with The Blacklist and a boosted Chicago Fire. NBC are looking good now, but CBS always look better as the season goes on as they're typically more stable, and FOX have the Superbowl. I'm not willing to call it for NBC just yet, only two of their 12+ new shows has premiered so far, and one of them was extremely underwhelming.

Spot said...

Jeez. I thought your Question line was a bit pessimistic. Shows what I know.

With SHIELD (and ABC) down so much, where was the pop for Ziva's goodbye on NCIS? Where was the hold for FOX's guy comedies?

Could PoI be the only CBS 10PM show to stay above 2.0? Even so, it looks so weak compared to Chicago Fire, lead-in or no.

Spot said...

It's feeling like we might have a three-way chase this year, with ABC breaking away on the downside from last year's convergence.

I'd fancy NBC to win the fall, and I guess we'll see how fraudulent the CF numbers are when it gets the indirect lead-in for the spring cycle. I'd pick FOX as the likeliest season winner, but that might be entirely due to being out of the 10pm hour. CBS and/or will beat them in the common 8-10 hours, and if it weren't for Sleepy Hollow making a stunning start, I'd be predicting "and."

Spot said...

NBC: It was a solid night for them, with The Voice and Chicago Fire very stable.

CBS: CBS is the clear second-most-happy network today. I am, though, a little surprised that NCIS did not spike.

FOX: Only one of Dads and Brooklyn 9-9 will be on the midseason schedule, and I would give 9-9 the slight edge. New Girl has flat-out collapsed, while The Mindy Project is actually even with last week despite everything else being way down.

ABC: SHIELD still had excellent ratings, but it is key to see where the decline stops. There is still more coming. The Goldbergs was still solid, but cannot afford to drop a whole lot more. It is probably the classic "defer" scenario. Trophy Wife is dead, and Unlucky 0.7 will be lucky to even air next week.

Spot said...

I agree that Wednesdays and Thursdays are very likely to be sore spots. And their pre-Olympics winter schedule is such a huge unknown: for almost 2 months the network is losing 8 of its highest-rated hours (SNF, The Voice, and The Biggest Loser), more if NBC decides to put The Blacklist on a Voice-related hiatus. Those doldrums could more than offset the Fall.

Spot said...

I think people are over-analyzing the drop of Shield. What happened last week was a TV event. There were a lot of people watching the show live that normally don't watch TV; at least I imagine so. Out of this world premieres are followed by out of this world disappointing drops. If it keeps the 30% acceleration drop next week I will be worried, until then I think it is 100% normal. Sure it would have been nice for it to do better than normal like Sleepy Hollow appears to be doing, but this is still pretty good. Also, remember: next week the voice goes away and the ncis hype for cote de pable is also gone. The show should benefit from there. It should still decline but at a much slower rate.

Elsewhere, Trophy Wife is dying and I am sorry. If only Super Fun Night could bomb abysmally (I don't actually want to wish this on any show) so that ABC would put TW there and bring Suburgatory on Tuesdays..

Over at FOX, a disaster on 18-49, but really, I have trouble commenting on these comedies anymore because I a convinced we don't have all the information. Sad for B99, I am really loving that one. Hopefully it gains a bit from not facing the voice next week.

CBS did okay. I don't think they can collapse on this night this year, it is very solid. I still expect to see LA going way down, but so far it has been holding its own very well. I don't understand those spring drops when facing the voice now, how strange! POI may be regarded as a disapointent but I think we will finish the season understand that higher than 2.0 is the new hit for 10pm... Scandal is not of this world!

NBC continues to do very well. Chicago Fire is doing an excellent job. I have a feeling that NBC may venture on a Voice/Chicago PD/

Spot said...

The FOX comedies will certainly be bringing in more ad dollars per 18-49 point than most shows. The 9pm hour skews (even) younger than the 8pm hour, so that might be relevant for Mindy. You might well be right about NBC Tuesdays in the spring, the very fact they ordered a spin-off this early in the game suggests they see CF as their big-time procedural franchise already and that would be one heck of a way of showing it.

Spot said...

I'd agree that Goldbergs has 'defer' written all over it. It's like some of the high-concept drama launches of recent years - big premiere, falls hard in week two, still some time to stop the bleeding but no certainty that it'll happen.

Spot said...

Yeah, I thin that could give mind the edge over b99. I don't think Dads can be saved baring a successful move to sundays which I doubt. Also, mindy has also the edge over b99 in terms of proximity to syndication. And their ratings are even at this point, so I don't see why fox would keep b99 over mindy. Which sucks cause I love B99!

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