Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/30/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC won the season's second Monday with ease, but an overrun/New Orleans pre-emption took The Blacklist down to a 3.3. That was down a still perfectly reasonable 13% from last week's premiere.
  • As for CBS, apparently it does get worse than last year's Partners. They opened We Are Men to terrible numbers at 8:30, down over a third from an also-sagging How I Met Your Mother, and the negative mojo predictably continued into the last two hours. 2 Broke Girls suffered from the nearly two-point lead-in drop, week two of Mom was down 12% and the weak-starting Hostages dropped another 17%. Something's probably gonna change on this night in fairly short order, with Mom likely the only safe new show in the short term.
  • Fox had a great Monday as Bones rallied nicely from last week's big drop and Sleepy Hollow steadied the ship. On ABC, week three of Dancing with the Stars took another dip, finally dropping into the negatives year-to-year, but Castle held up great again.
  • The collective big four were up again year-to-year on Monday, this time by 7% vs. Monday #2 in 2012. Most of the credit goes to Fox, now up by nearly 200% in Sleepy Hollow's timeslot!

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars Mon 2.0 19% -13%-0.3n/a 3/3 -20% -12% -4% 2.1
Castle 2.2 26% +0%+0.0-0.3 1/2 +5% -2% +19% 2.3
ABC:-9%+3%
How I Met Your Mother 3.1 50% -16%-0.6n/a 2/2 -14% -11% -6% 3.0
We Are Men 2.0 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -47% -5% 2.0
2 Broke Girls 2.4 39% -14%-0.4-1.7 2/2 -35% -14% -29% 2.5
Mom 2.2 40% -12%-0.3-0.4 2/2 n/a -12% -24% 2.3
Hostages 1.5 32% -17%-0.3-0.3 2/2 n/a -17% -25% 1.6
CBS:-22%-19%
The Voice Mon 4.7 42% -8%-0.4n/a 2/2 +7% -7% +3% 4.7
The Blacklist 3.3 37% -13%-0.5-0.4 2/2 n/a -14% +3% 3.0
NBC:-9%+3%
Bones 2.2 38% +16%+0.3n/a 2/3 -4% +16% +5% 2.2
Sleepy Hollow 3.0 48% -3%-0.1+0.3 3/3 n/a -5% +186% 3.3
Fox:+4%+65%
iHeartRadio Music Festival p1 0.3 41% n/a +50% -48% 0.3
CW:+33%-48%
Big5:-9%+4%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

21 comments:

Spot said...

Friends With Better Lives at 8:30 PM; Mike & Molly at 9:30 PM.
It's not question of if, but when.

Spot said...

NBC and FOX had extraordinary nights and I am shocked at how well the blacklist and sleepy hollow hold week to week. So happy for both. I didn't know the blacklist was likely to adjust down but as you've said even a 3 tenths adjustment would still be quite positive. CBS is a mess... they did terrible and I can only think of short term patches, not long term solutions for this, at least this season. Hostages is doing worse than H50 on Fridays, that is something. Castle also hold up very well.

Spot said...

Is there much sense in premiering another comedy on Monday? They'll never make it against the Voice. I'm pretty sure the Millers dies quickly and Friends should premiere behind TBBT.

Mom goes behind HIMYM and M&M goes back to 9:30 - it seems like a good lineup.

Spot said...

Woo, Sleepy Hollow. I love this crazy hodgepodge.


I bet CBS never expected their H5O replacement to actually go lower. I figured that Hostages would be left to die on the vine, but now I'm not sure, especially since H50 is still doing better. How far along in production is Intelligence?



A few years, I would have laughed at the idea of Castle actually beating DWTS.

Spot said...

Not even a 2.3 for the We Are Men premiere. Shocked.

Spot said...

Off topic, but will there be a question today? It would be the first day since premiere monday without a question (excluding saturday)

Spot said...

Yeah H50 actually outrating Hostages even before accounting for the friday factor is shocking!

Spot said...

Yes. I don't think there will be one on this Friday/Saturday/Sunday though.

Spot said...

Cool to know! Thanks! Yeah not that much going on during weekend I agree.

Spot said...

There is also Bad Teacher. Although I suspect one will just end up as summer burn off.

Spot said...

Intelligence is probably not far enough in production to launch yet given its episode order. Plus CBS will need to put in some serious promotion for the show; if it disappoints, the network is in trouble since it's the only other new drama in reserves.


Barring any time slot swaps, I think it's more likely to let Hostages run its order out, plug the remaining 6 episodes of Unforgettable in January/February to take the Winter Olympics hit, then launch Intelligence in March.

Spot said...

They do have one other drama, the legal show Reckless. But that has "summer burn-off" written all over it, so I don't think anyone's counting on it.

I forgot about the extra Unforgettable episodes. Yes, those will definitely come in handy.

Spot said...

Yeah, you gotta love that that dose of concentrated insanity right at the beginning of the workweek.

As for Hostages, I've been predicting all along that it's five-and-out at best. The only thing that would prove me wrong is if they really don't have anything set to go - unfortunately, I'm unaware of the exact production schedule for Intelligence, or if they'd even want to risk their only mid-season replacement so early.

Spot said...

Man, has CBS Mondays come down to Earth the past two years.


Week Two 2011:
Mother: 4.5
Girls: 4.6
2 1/2: 7.4
M&M: 4.8
5-0: 3.3


W2 2012:
Mother: 3.3
Partners: 2.1
Girls: 3.5
M&M: 2.9
5-0: 2.0


And now this.

Spot said...

2011 to 2012 was a bad drop. This time, it is down less than 20% even before finals (likely positive adjustments). The 8:00 hour may actually be even or close to it year-to-year. Is it bad? Yes, but the bloick is not "dead".

Spot said...

Isn't Reckless supposed to be a bit more "soapy" than the usual CBS fare? That's probably best put in the summer, anyways.


I am surprised that CBS seems so bound and determined to go off-brand this season. Single-cams like WaM and Crazy (which the jury is still out on) and serialized dramas like Hostages and this.

Spot said...

... and Sleepy Hollow already surpasses The Blacklist in True.
But whatever. I haven't watched the networks on Monday since Raymond.

Spot said...

I agree with this notion. I think we have an overly optimistic view about how CBS has been doing the last years. Their skew is likely a major point, I don't think they have a financial advantage nearly close to the one they have in 18-49 ratings. In fact, I think sometimes they gain less than other networks who beat them in 18-49 ratings. That is probably why we are seeing all of this this year. But it is going south quite soon, so I will be surprised if they still pursue it that aggressively next year.

Spot said...

Might it be worth doing a SNF vs CBS/ABC/FOX Question, with the spread set two-and-a-bit points on the others' side, on Sunday as a further snark at the Sunday broadcast skedding? The Thursday Millers v Others Question was fantastic fun.

Spot said...

That seems obvious, and perhaps even what should have been the premiere night lineup, with the Chuck Lorre power hour remaining intact on Thursday and leading into a singlecam hour at 9. (WAM could've been replaced by Bad Teacher to maintain the singlecam block, or they could've flipped to the TBBT/TBBT rerun/Crazy Ones/2.5 Men Thursday we're presumably going to see if The Millers is a bomb.)

Spot said...

Might ABC flip the two shows round? Castle doesn't need the lead-in as much as we thought if it's actually building on it in the demo, and DWTS is a perfect 9pm-11pm show - the Voice-free 10pm hour would clearly do better, for a start. Also, as a league average show for now DWTS is in the same relative ratings space as Celebrity Apprentice when it was making that skedding work. Finally, it's dead-skewing (it skews older than CBS Tuesdays!!), so it makes sense at 10 to feed into the late local news.

You could also plug in a DWTS results show in the Lucky 7 slot. Again, it dodges The Voice (and probably takes a lump out of CF too).

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.