Thursday, October 3, 2013

The Question, Thursday 10/3/13: Does The Millers Have More Gas Than the Other Premieres?


Somehow broadcast TV ended up with an evening after the premiere week that contains four series premieres, all of them at least somewhat interesting. CBS has its permanent The Big Bang Theory lead-out The Millers, NBC hopes to avoid complete disaster by adding not-good-enough-for-premiere-week Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family to its already struggling lineup, and the CW opens its 2013-14 season by spinning off its most successful brand with The Originals. The ratings expectations are pretty wildly different here; while The Millers would be considered very weak at a 3.0, the others would kill to hit 2.0 (or maybe even 1.5). Does The Millers have more gas than the other premieres? That's The Question for Thursday, October 3, 2013.

The Lead-ins
5.5/6.1 (The Big Bang Theory last week) (Millers)

1.3 (Parks and Recreation last week) (WTTF/Sean)

1.6/1.24/1.1 (The Vampire Diaries prem/avg/finale) (Orig)

When I saw the listings for this night, my instinct was to pit The Big Bang Theory-fueled The Millers against all the other series premieres combined. Upon further consideration, I'm thinking that's a bit of a reach, but perhaps not that much! So we'll still do that, but I'll put a few additional tenths on the Millers side of the spread.

By the way, in case this is too convoluted, you can just put your picks for all four shows and I'll figure out which side you're on. :-)

Spread: "The Others" (Welcome to the Family + Sean Saves the World + The Originals) beat The Millers by 0.55 points.

(Reply with "The Others" if you think the combined WTTF + Sean + Originals ratings beat The Millers by 0.6 points or more. Reply with "The Millers" if you think WTTF + Sean + Originals beat The Millers by 0.5 points or less or if you think The Millers beats/ties WTTF + Sean + Originals.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. Results based on finals rounded to one decimal point.

35 comments:

Spot said...

Stop forcing me to do simple arithmetic, Spot! My college years are over and done with!

OK, fine:

Welcome to the Family: 1.4
Sean Saves the World: 1.9
The Originals: 1.2
The Millers: 3.9

Bah, I didn't expect it to be so close. You know what? I'm just going to forget all the math, count on the "NBC fails" rule, and go with The Millers

Spot said...

The Millers.

Spot said...

I'm thinking Millers gets somewhere around a 4, and Originals gets around a .7. Can Wttf and Sean average 1.7? I just don't think it's possible. The Millers.

Spot said...

Amongst all this and the premiere of Scandal, it definitely feels like premiere week. I thought you would go for a Scandal vs. The Millers one since the NBCs are kind of afterthoughts but well done with this one.

So, if I am reasonably pessimistic:
Welcome to the Family: 0.9
Sean Hayes: 1.4
The Originals: 1.1

It adds up to 3.4.

If the Millers does Crazy Ones numbers, which I don't think it does, it's a 3.9 so it would be close. I don't think the millers can do crazy ones, I think it will be something closer to a 3.5. I also think some of the others can uptick more than I am giving them here and I see little room to downticks.

So, a reasonably confident "The Others" which means I am wrong most likely

Spot said...

The Others.

Spot said...

The Millers: 3.5


The Originals: 1.0 (maybe a tick over, hopefully not under!)
WTTF: 1.4
Sean: 1.7


That totals 4.1..which I think puts me with The Others ;p

Spot said...

Welcome to the Family - 1.3
Sean Saves the World - 1.6
The Originals - 1.1

= 4.0

The Millers - 4.0

So that would appear I'm in THE OTHERS?

Spot said...

Tie goes to THE MILLERS.

Spot said...

I'll give the NBC sitcoms a couple of ticks over Ironside, but no more, and The Originals will be in low-1s territory like TVD has generally been. Mid-4s for The Others - and I think The Millers will be in the 3s if The Crazy Ones got a 4.0 out of a 6.1 with much more hype. That means that the NBC-CDub triplet cover the spread.

The Others.

Spot said...

Welcome to the family 1.2
Sean Saves the World 1.5
The Originals 1.1
= 3.8


The Millers 3.4


Millers. I just think having "Bang" as a lead in will pull the Millers up enough to beat the spread.

Spot said...

Welcome to the Family : 1.3
Sean Saves the World : 1.6
The Originals : 1.2
The Millers : 3.8

The Millers

Spot said...

The Millers was an 0.55 underdog, meaning that if the others are a 3.4, The Millers would only need a 2.9 to win.

Spot said...

Ah okay! You think I'd read all of the bold typing. Thanks Spot!

Spot said...

Show-by-show:


WTTF: Obvious flop- Potential Range: 0.8-1.5 Prediction: 1.2
SSTW: Probably a little better- Potential Range: 1.3-2.0 Prediction: 1.6
Originals: I have little knowledge of the CW- Potential Range: 0-5-1.3 Prediction: 0.9
That gives me a prediction of 3.7 for the others (but a range of 2.6-4.8)


The Millers: Has TBBT Lead-in- Potential Range: 3.0-4.1 Prediction: 3.6


So I will pick The Millers, though I am far from certain.

Spot said...

The Millers: 3.7
Welcome to the Family: 1.4
Sean Saves the World: 1.7
The Originals: 0.9
Combined others is 4.0, so i vote for The Millers.

Spot said...

I must have misunderstood something. 0.6 is a pretty big gap, and I think the three shows combined might beat The Millers, but not by that much. So, **The Millers**.

Spot said...

What hurts the side of the Others is that WTTF faces The Millers and will clearly deflate that show. And if sure-fire MJF could barely muster a 2.1 across the hour, how does Sean Saves the World stand a chance? This is a rare moment where a CW show may make a meaningful difference just like in The Question with Grimm & Fashion Star's combined rating.

WTTF: 1.1
SSTW: 1.5
The Originals: 1.4
TOTAL: 4.0
The Millers: 3.9

The Millers.

(And if this is the Official Question, I would love to hear unofficial answers to the question of how high Scandal will go. Grey's Anatomy is going to be roughly the same kind of lead-in help as Scandal got in May when the show hit more ratings highs. Though Parenthood is also chasing a female audience, it and Elementary combined aren't hitting the same buzzy levels as Scandal. Another sophomore bounce [junior bounce?] should be in the making. Scandal: 3.55.)

Spot said...

The Millers.
I'm not a buyer on The Millers, but it has the TBBT lead-in and I'm an even bigger seller on the NBC comedy block.

Spot said...

I'm giving Scandal a 3.4, so unofficially under ;)

Spot said...

WTTF 1.2
Sean 1.6
Originals 1.1
= 3.9



The Millers 3.6


So.......The Millers!

Spot said...

3.5- Under for the Scandal prediction, though it may go over if Season 2 ended on a major cliffhanger (I don't watch the show).

Spot said...

I'd say over. I think people are underestimating the power of Shonda.

Spot said...

The Millers.

Spot said...

"THE OTHERS"

Spot said...

Gonna do a little long-form guessing here:

The Millers: 4.0

Welcome to the Family: 1.3
Sean Saves the World: 1.7
The Originals: 1.3
TOTAL: 4.3

The Millers.

Spot said...

Welcome: 1.4
Sean: 1.7
Originals: 1.3


That makes a total or 4.4, which is about as high as can be expected. I'll say that The Millers gets a 4.1, so Under.

Spot said...

The Millers

Spot said...

Unofficially under, my guess is a 3.5. But I adore Scandal so anything higher would be even better

Spot said...

The Others. Where's mah Scandal question?

Spot said...

The Millers 3.6
Welcome to the Family 1.2
Sean Saves the World 1.6
The Originals 1.0


So...The Others, but barely.

Spot said...

My unofficial answer is under at 3.2, but I'm prepared to be proven very wrong indeed. If so, that might be more evidence for the cable-stripping advantage, because Scandal has very unusually benefitted from that through BET. (And I will say that my Twitter timeline had almost BB levels of buzz - but that's largely because I follow a few black feminists.)

Spot said...

My pix, for the record:


WTTF 1.4 + Sean 1.7 + Orig 1.2 = 4.3


Millers 3.7-3.8


I didn't expect that a 1.4 for WTTF would make me the nutbar optimist.

Spot said...

I actually think that your The Millers number is the optimistic one. I've already seen the early top-25 numbers but even ignoring those, as I said yesterday, I think it is very unlikely that the millers pulls the crazy ones type of numbers. Its big bang lead-in should be more than a half point lower than last week (the 8pm show was quite lower rated than the 8h30, which was the crazy ones lead-in). Besides, the crazy ones had way more hype than the millers. I know it's facing welcome to the family and not michael j fox, but I don't think that's enough to counterbalance the previous two facts. We will know very soon though. I could eat sand in an hour :P

Spot said...

I expected The Originals to out-do WTTF based on how strong The Vampire Diaries typically launches (my number was 1.5) and decided to go with near-100% retention. So I was a nutbar optimist for a show, too. Good thing my pre-guessing math was too high anyway. :-)

Spot said...

FAST NATIONAL:


THE MILLERS: 3.3
THE FLOPS: 3.7


ANOTHER CBS WIN, EASY AS USUAL

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