Thursday, October 3, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/2/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The Rebel-lion began quite well for ABC as Super Fun Night was one of the more impressive post-Modern Family launches, as the Rebel Wilson fanbase likely helped the show pretty much match up skew-wise with its young-skewing ModFam lead-in. I totally whiffed on this one, but in my defense, part of my miss was because I didn't remotely see Modern Fam holding 100% of its week-ago premiere rating. Nashville rounded out a strong final two hours for ABC by almost completely holding up week-to-week even in the face of a one-point-plus lead-in downgrade.
  • It wasn't nearly as rosy in the 8:00 hour for ABC, though The Middle and Back in the Game both adjusted up in finals to better levels. BITG was even with last year's The Neighbors.
  • NBC's relatively huge premiere Wednesday was just extra credit in a week they would've dominated anyway on the strength of The Voice and football. But it doesn't look like the night will be that kind of asset going forward. Revolution mimicked its spring trajectory, with one good week and then a drop in week two (though it got some finals help), Law and Order: SVU came way back to earth (though it's still a big positive, on the year-to-year plus side) and Ironside launched rather terribly at 10/9c. As predicted pre-season, there was a major skew discrepancy here; it matched SVU in viewership but had 30% fewer 18-49ers.
  • No broadcast-wide year-to-year comparisons this time since there was a debate on the second Wednesday last year.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.3 36% -8%-0.2n/a 2/2 +5% -8% +5% 2.1
Back in the Game 1.9 36% -14%-0.3-0.2 2/2 n/a -14% +0% 1.7
Modern Family 4.2 48% +0%+0.0-0.3 1/2 n/a +2% +40% 4.2
Super Fun Night 3.2 49% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -26% +7% 2.7
Nashville 1.9 40% -5%-0.1-1.0 2/2 n/a -5% -31% 1.7
ABC:-10%-1%
Survivor 2.7 34% +13%+0.3n/a 1/3 -10% +10% -8% 2.5
Criminal Minds 2.7 31% -4%-0.1+0.3 2/2 n/a -4% -10% 2.6
CSI 2.1 28% +5%+0.1-0.1 1/2 n/a +2% -18% 1.9
CBS:+3%-12%
Revolution 1.6 37% -11%-0.2n/a 2/2 -50% -11% +10% 1.5
Law and Order: SVU 2.0 37% -26%-0.7-0.2 2/2 n/a -18% -33% 2.1
Ironside 1.3 24% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -55% -55% 1.4
NBC:-31%-33%
The X Factor Wed 2.4 39% -4%-0.1n/a 2/4 -31% -6% -26% 2.4
Fox:-6%-26%
Arrow (R) 0.5 36% +67% +43% 0.5
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 48% +100% -56% 0.4
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 45% +100% -50% 0.4
CW:+80%-25%
Big5:-8%-19%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

I did not see Super Fun Night debuting this well. I thought high 2s, not this. Maybe them changing the pilot episode was actually a good idea, we will have to see how it holds next week. I am not sold yet that it will work for them, but for now they have proven me wrong. And damn about revolution, I am very worried about it now.

Spot said...

Wow, big surprise from Super Fun Night. Next week will be verrrrrry interesting, though.


Will NBC leave Revolution and Ironside on until the Olympics roll around? They could be already be planning post-Olympic launches for Chicago PD and something else (Believe?).

Spot said...

Will NBC leave ... Ironside on until the Olympics roll around?


Horrible but hilarious pun.


Of the two, right now I'd say Revolution stays just because it already has the 22 episode order while Ironside doesn't. Chicago PD feels likely to slide into 10:00 here than a post-Olympics Sunday.

Spot said...

Holy cow, I didn't even realize I did that.



*Hides face in shame*

Spot said...

It's not a rebellion, it's a rebel-olution, as per the horrible ads that my radio stations kept blasting at me. I hope it fails, based on the very little I saw of the pilot.

Spot said...

Maybe Super Fun Night might have fitted as part of a CBS four-hour slate in 2012/13 after all. (2BG lead-out, with 2.5 Men launching the Thursday 9pm hour?) It's launched better than anything else CBS has done since they turned down SFN...


Not that I expect anything with this critical reception to keep the audience of a show like MF for more than a week. Though even 25% erosion would be one of the better post-premiere holds of the ABC newbies!

Spot said...

I agree, I think Ironside is in definitely worse shape than revolution. Ironside is dead, Revolution is on the low end of the bubble but still has some sort of chance.

Spot said...

[quote]I totally whiffed on this one, but in my defense, part of my miss was because I didn't remotely see Modern Fam holding 100% (or more after finals) of its week-ago premiere rating.[/quote]This. So much this for me. I was expecting mid-3s for MF and a lack of men.

Spot said...

Yeah me too. I figured a full point drop.

The Middle: 2.0
Back in the Game: 1.2
Modern Family: 3.3
Super Fun Night: 2.2

Revolution: 1.4
SVU: 2.2
Ironside: 1.3


The NBC side was pretty good though.

Spot said...

To be fair, The Crazy Ones launched better than SFN. It has the lead-in excuse, but so does SFN (although less significantly). I remain unconvinced of the show's ratings in the future. I am less pessimistic than I was before seeing these numbers but I still have doubts about it.

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