Wednesday, October 23, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Tomorrow People

The CW's newbie The Tomorrow People started off with a 0.9 demo, adjusting up in finals to match its lead-in from Arrow (0.9). It was actually right on the verge of being a 0.8, as it averaged 1.084 million 18-49ers (or an 0.853 rating). Still, this was a reasonably positive start for The Tomorrow People given the somewhat disappointing Arrow numbers.

In week two, The Tomorrow People was down to a 0.8 demo. But since this one wasn't as easy as The Originals, I decided to consult the more precise number again, which said 1.079 million, or down less than 1%. It was about as close as you can possibly get to adjusting up to a 0.9; this number is literally a 0.8498 rating! It is worth noting that Arrow got a lot stronger in week two, surging to a 1.1, so that was probably a good part of why it was even. But it's still a good hold even after accounting for that.

My pre-season prognosis was that this would be a nice but unspectacular retainer of the Arrow audience, and I see no real reason to veer from that prognosis in either direction through two weeks. This looks like the kind of decent performer the CW could really use to fill out a schedule that still isn't that deep, and it appears to have the early edge on fellow newbie Reign, which premiered a tick worse out of a much better lead-in. It's not as safe a bet as The Originals, but Renew.

See also: the week three prognosis for Super Fun Night.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.


Spot said...

Agree with everything you wrote. Cool to know the exact same number of week 2. One thing that could be worth noticing is that the show increased in week 2 in adults 18-34, which I still believe being the most well paid shows. Due to all the rounding, skew is not that good of a measure here, but I believe that is significant. It's a renew and I like the show a lot so I hope it is a safe one.

Spot said...

Considering that I expect The CW to focus on Mondays next season (see rough idea below), having one night of consistency would be a plus for the network. Arrow/The Tomorrow People seems to be the best candidate for that, so I also vote renew.

Monday: Supernatural & Supernatural spin-off
Tuesday: The Originals & new drama
Wednesday: Arrow & The Tomorrow People
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries & new drama
Friday: ANTM & Hart of Dixie

Spot said...

Loving the exact numbers there. Makes a massive difference with CW shows.

Probably going to get a string of 0.8s through the season. On this network, that's still enough! Renew.

Spot said...

I agree with all of that.

Spot said...

They seem very reluctant to move Supernatural to 8pm, so I dunno. But I would also go with that.

Wildcard: I don't think it's unfeasible (I certainly hope so) that if The Hundred is placed after TVD come mid-season it scores a renewal.

Spot said...

Hard to disagree.
I can see The CW having a tough scheduling decision at the end of the season: stick with #AmellWednesday with solid-but-unspectacular retention from The Tomorrow People or launch something new out of Arrow, with Flash as the obvious candidate.

Spot said...

Flash would probably be a great candidate to lead-out of The Vampire Diaries if it's picked up to series. If ABC slides Scandal up to 9:00 and Glee is still in that hour, Flash would be a good male-leaning show to go against those female-focused dramas.

Spot said...

While I have more confidence than usual in The CW's midseason shows this year, the network's track record is less than inspiring; only Life Unexpected and The Carrie Diaries debuted in midseason and got a Year 2 (not counting Canadian import The LA Complex).

Spot said...

While that is true, the sample is quite small. For instance, two years ago (year of HoD, The Secret Circle and Ringer) there were no midseason scripted shows, so nothing could be renewed from midseason. Also, I think it is the first year a midseason show has a shot at a post TVD slot. And post TVD shows have a tendency to actually hold up decent in the first half of their seasons, which in this case would correspond to the entire season of said show (even accounting for spring declines, etc.).

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