Thursday, October 3, 2013

Premiere Week 2013 Year-to-Year: Top 10 Winners/Losers

While I've long retired the daily Demos Year-to-Year posts, I do want to continue doing the recap posts that spotlight the top gainers/losers of the week. Here's premiere week 2013, and there should be another one of these in each sweeps period.

As last year, since my "y2y" function compares premieres regardless of date, the SHOW section counts not just the premieres from premiere week, but all of the 2013-14 season/series premieres through September 29. The TIMESLOT winners/losers count only timeslot comparisons during the traditional premiere week (September 23-29). TIMESLOT also only counts original-vs.-original comparisons.

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW losers
1. The Neighbors (F 8:30-9pm vs. W 9:30-10pm) -69%
2. Revolution (W 8-9pm vs. M 10-11pm) -56%
3. Glee -35%
4. The X Factor Wed (W 8-9pm vs. W8-10pm) -35%
5. Once Upon a Time -33%
6. Elementary -32%
7. The X Factor Thu -29%
8. Nashville -29%
9. Revenge -28%
10. 20/20 -28%

The top two both had major timeslot downgrades. Revolution arguably still did pretty well even if it was down 56% from last year's premiere; Neighbors not so much. The others are all same-timeslot, though Elementary and Nashville both got compared against series premiere numbers that were not representative of anything the shows did after week one.

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW gainers
1. CFB on Fox +83%
2. America's Next Top Model +50%
3. Dateline Fri +44%
4. Chicago Fire (Tu 10-11pm vs. W 10-11pm) +42%
5. Law and Order: SVU +29%
6. Dancing with the Stars Mon +24%
7. The Voice Mon +21%
8. The Voice Tue (Tu 8-10pm vs. Tu 8-9pm) +18%
9. Blue Bloods +13%
10. 48 Hours +11%

2012-13 was the year of the sophomore timeslot upgrade. This season, Chicago Fire is really the only show that falls under that banner, but it has taken advantage in a big way early on. Dancing with the Stars also had a noticeable "upgrade" in that it got to premiere before The Voice began. Perhaps the list's biggest surprises were a couple veteran procedurals that perked up almost out of nowhere: SVU and Blue Bloods.

Top 10 year-to-year TIMESLOT losers
1. Perfect Score (vs. America's Next Top Model, CW Friday 8:30-9pm) -60%
2. Dads (vs. New Girl, Fox Monday 8-8:30pm) -46%
t-3. The Neighbors (vs. Shark Tank, ABC Friday 8:30-9pm) -38%
t-3. The Mindy Project, Fox Tuesday 9:30-10pm -38%
5. The X Factor, Fox Thursday 8-9pm -34%
6. Once Upon a Time, ABC Sunday 8-9pm -33%
7. Elementary, CBS Thursday 10-11pm -32%
8. Lucky 7 (vs. Private Practice), ABC Tuesday 10-11pm -32%
9. Betrayal (vs. 666 Park Ave), ABC Sunday 10-11pm -30%
10. Revenge, ABC Sunday 9-10pm -28% 

As I've said on these lists many times over the years, the ultimate insult is to make it onto the timeslot loser list when being compared against a previous occupant that didn't make it. Hello, Lucky 7 and Betrayal!

Top 10 year-to-year TIMESLOT gainers
1. Agents of SHIELD (vs. Dancing with the Stars, ABC Tuesday 8-9pm) +169%
2. Sleepy Hollow (vs. The Mob Doctor, Fox Monday 9-10pm) +138%
3. Parenthood (vs. Rock Center, NBC Thursday 10-11pm) +100%
4. The Big Bang Theory (vs. Two and a Half Men, CBS Thursday 8:30-9pm) +74%
5. Chicago Fire (vs. Parenthood, NBC Tuesday 10-11pm) +50%
6. Hawaii Five-0 (vs. Made in Jersey, CBS Friday 9-10pm) +45%
7. The Voice (vs. The Voice recap/Go On/The New Normal, NBC Tuesday 8-10pm) +45%
8. The Crazy Ones (vs. Person of Interest, CBS Thursday 9-9:30pm) +34%
9. The Goldbergs (vs. Dancing with the Stars, ABC Tuesday 9-9:30pm) +29%
10. Law and Order: SVU (NBC Wednesday 9-11pm) +29%

If there were one of these every week, Sleepy Hollow would almost certainly take over the #1 spot starting in week two.

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