Premiere Week Year-to-Year: Winners, Losers, Networks

With Premiere Week 2014 in the books, let's take a look at how it compared with Premiere Week 2013. We'll examine the shows and timeslots that changed the most vs. 2013, plus the network race.

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2013 Winners/Losers

While I've long retired the daily Demos Year-to-Year posts, I do want to continue doing the recap posts that spotlight the top gainers/losers of the week vs. the same time a year ago. Here's November sweeps 2013; since sweeps began a week later on the calendar last year, I'm actually comparing week two of this sweeps vs. week three of last year. This seemed the best combination of weeks to ensure that almost all entertainment programs got a comparison.

Premiere Week 2013 Year-to-Year: Top 10 Winners/Losers

While I've long retired the daily Demos Year-to-Year posts, I do want to continue doing the recap posts that spotlight the top gainers/losers of the week. Here's premiere week 2013, and there should be another one of these in each sweeps period.

As last year, since my "y2y" function compares premieres regardless of date, the SHOW section counts not just the premieres from premiere week, but all of the 2013-14 season/series premieres through September 29. The TIMESLOT winners/losers count only timeslot comparisons during the traditional premiere week (September 23-29). TIMESLOT also only counts original-vs.-original comparisons.

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2013 Winners/Losers

Though I retired the formal daily year-to-year posts, after the premiere week I did pledge to shoot for at least one weeklong summary to put a spotlight on where we are vs. one year ago during each sweeps period. I'm trying to pick out the most "normal" week from each period, so this time I'm dipping back to week one (April 25 to May 1), when almost all regular schedules were still airing. Would've done this a week earlier but all the upfront coverage got in the way!

---

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW losers
1. Smash (Sa 8-9pm vs. M 10-11pm) -78%
2. Touch (Fr 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -68%
3. Fashion Star (Fr 8-9pm vs. Tu 10-11pm) -53%
4. 90210 (Mo 9-10pm vs. Tu 8-9pm)  -50%
5. American Idol Wed -38%
6. Dancing with the Stars Tue -38%
7. Once Upon a Time -33%
8. Hawaii Five-0 -32%
9. The Cleveland Show -31%
10. American Idol Thu -30% 

In one year, Smash has quite literally moved from the best timeslot on NBC to the worst. Touch and Fashion Star can also blame timeslot downgrades for much of their problems. Beyond that, most of these declines are unfortunately fairly "real."

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2013 Winners/Losers

Though I retired the formal daily year-to-year posts, after the premiere week I did pledge to shoot for at least one weeklong summary to put a spotlight on the year-to-year landscape during each sweeps period. I'm trying to pick out the most "normal" week from each period, and it looked like week three was by far the best this time. (Namely, it was the only week without a big event on Sunday.)

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW losers
1. Smash (Tu 10-11pm vs. M 10-11pm) -61%
2. The Mentalist (Su 10-11pm vs. Th 10-11pm) -41%
3. Glee (Th 9-10pm vs. Tu 8-9pm) -39%
4. The Good Wife -38%
5. Last Man Standing (F 8-8:30pm vs. Tu 8-8:30pm) -36%
6. Hawaii Five-0 -31%
7. Raising Hope (Tu 8-9pm vs. Tu 9:30-10pm) -29%
8. The Vampire Diaries -29%
9. 60 Minutes -28%
10. American Idol Thu (Th 8-9pm vs. Th 8-10pm) -27% 

Should note here that Valentine's Day probably puts the Thursday shows (Glee, TVD and Idol) in worse shape than they would normally be. It was a particularly ugly point for The Vampire Diaries, which has been close to even for much of the year, but Idol and Glee would've been down big anyway (just not quite as big). The three CBS Sunday shows also had a pretty horrifying evening compared to their usual results. The others were not that far off of their typical year-to-year losses.

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2012 Week Three Winners/Losers

Though I've retired the formal daily year-to-year posts, after the premiere week I did pledge to shoot for at least one year-to-year summary for each sweeps period. I'm trying to pick out the most "normal" week from each period, and it looked like week three was by far the best this time. (No weather-related pre-emptions, no election pre-emptions, no awards shows, no Thanksgiving Eve.)

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW losers
1. Private Practice (Tu 10-11pm vs. Th 10-11pm) -61%
2. Happy Endings (Tu 9-9:30pm vs. W 9:30-10pm) -59%
3. Nikita (F 9-10pm vs. F 8-9pm) -50%
4. Last Man Standing (F 8-8:30pm vs. Tu 8-8:30pm) -38%
5. Whitney (W 8-8:30pm vs. Th 9:30-10pm) -38%
6. New Girl -37%
7. Hawaii Five-0 -36%
8. How I Met Your Mother -35%
9. Dancing with the Stars Mon -34%
t-10. Gossip Girl (M 9-10pm vs. M 8-9pm) -33% 
t-10. 2 Broke Girls (M 9-9:30pm vs. M 8:30-9pm) -33%

As always with the show lists, many of these numbers were inevitably going to be bad because of timeslot downgrades: namely Private Practice, Happy Endings, Last Man. But I don't think anyone would argue any of these shows (except maybe Last Man?) are doing "well." There's a big CBS Monday presence on this list, and Mike and Molly (at -32%) just barely misses.

Premiere Week Year-to-Year: Top 10 Winners/Losers

As I said before the season, I'm retiring the daily Demos Year-to-Year posts, but I do want to continue doing the recap posts that spotlight the top gainers/losers of the week. I may not do them for every single sweeps week, but I'm definitely doing at least one for each sweeps period.

For this premiere edition, the SHOW winners/losers count not just the premieres from premiere week, but all of the season/series premieres that I count under the 2012-13 banner through September 30 (dating back to Grimm on August 13). The TIMESLOT winners/losers count only timeslot comparisons during the traditional premiere week (September 24-30). TIMESLOT also only counts original-vs.-original comparisons.

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2012 Week Four Winners/Losers

As usual with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest gainers and losers among adults 18-49. I stick to only original-vs.-original comparisons for these lists.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Dancing with the Stars Mon -38%
2. Glee -37% 
3. American Idol Tuesday -31%
4. American Idol Wednesday -30%
5. American Idol Thursday -30%

This is not a week of particularly useful comparisons, since so many shows sat out the final week of the season. But this one paints a pretty good picture of some of the biggest falls from grace of the 2011-12 season, especially if you add in #6 (the DWTS finale, -28%) and #7 (Celebrity Apprentice, -27%).

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2012 Week Three Winners/Losers

As usual with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest gainers and losers among adults 18-49. I stick to only original-vs.-original comparisons for these lists.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Cougar Town (Tu 8-9pm vs. W 9:30-10pm) -50%
2. America's Next Top Model -50%
t-3. Dancing with the Stars Mon (M 8-9:30pm vs. M 8-10pm) -43%
t-3. The Cleveland Show (Su 7:30-8pm vs. Su 9:30-10pm) -43% 
5. Nikita (F 8-9pm vs. Thu 9-10pm) -43%

While DWTS has been on the fringes of this list all season, it got even worse this week since the episode was just 90 minutes long and it had to face a similar-skewing America's Got Talent. Otherwise, this is a fairly familiar group of faces (get used to me saying that in this last full-strength week of the season), with three of them undergoing major timeslot downgrades from this time a year ago.

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2012 Week Two Winners/Losers

As usual with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest gainers and losers among adults 18-49. I stick to only original-vs.-original comparisons for these lists.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. America's Next Top Model -60%
2. Nikita (F 8-9pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -50%
3. Bones (M 8-9pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -41%
4. Private Practice (Tu 10-11pm vs. Th 10-11pm) -39% 
5. American Idol Wednesday -37%

This list is almost completely overhauled from last week, with only disastrous Top Model returning. Nikita has been a fixture on the list all season thanks to its Friday move, while Bones and Private Practice (which faced the Voice finale) join the list this week thanks to major timeslot downgrades vs. last year. American Idol, which was dominating this list during February, sneaks back on this week, and the Thursday edition was a very close sixth.

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2012 Week One Winners/Losers

As usual with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest gainers and losers among adults 18-49. I stick to only original-vs.-original comparisons for these lists.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. The Office (Th 9-9:30pm vs. Th 9-9:53pm) -50%
2. America's Next Top Model -44%
3. Cougar Town (Tu 8:30-9pm vs. W 9:30-10pm) -41%
5. The Voice (M 8-10pm vs. Tu 9-11pm) -39% 
5. Dancing with the Stars Monday -38%

As I said on Thursday, The Office comparison for this week is a bit exaggerated because last year's episode was the Steve Carell finale, but I'd expect it to be a contender for this list the next two weeks too. Top Model will be lucky if it ever doesn't make this list. Cougar Town never made this list during February sweeps because it was on hiatus at that time last year, but the Tuesday pairing with Last Man Standing has obviously not been good to it. And Dancing with the Stars would probably be down big even without The Voice, but that show's presence makes the declines big enough to make this list. Fading The Voice gets compared to week two of the blind auditions in season one.

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2012 Grading the Networks

If you've followed my Demos Year-to-Year posts last month, you know I've started tracking each network as a whole along with the combined total of the networks each night. I tacked that on kinda late, so I didn't really have the framework to examine them on a larger scale... UNTIL NOW. First, here are the total Live+SD adults 18-49 counts for each network across the sweep:

Feb Sweep 2012	ABC	CBS	NBC	Fox	CW	Total
A18-49 Average	2.25	2.76	(3.40)	2.69	0.59	11.68
Year-to-Year	-3%	+7%	(+121%)	(-53%)	-28%	-10%

Obviously, the Super Bowl and the fact that it switches networks is a big part of any February sweep network evaluation. Hell, it's so huge that it's a big part of any network evaluation for the full season. So I put the numbers for directly affected nets in parentheses. But there are two ways we can get around that...

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2012 Week Four Winners/Losers

We've reached the end of another sweep! For now, one last look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. Additionally, there'll be one more year-to-year post looking at the networks as a whole coming up a little later today.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. America's Next Top Model (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -44%
2. American Idol (Th 8-9pm vs. Th 8-10pm) -38%
3. American Idol (W 8-10pm vs. W 8-9:30pm) -36%
4. 30 Rock (Th 8-8:30pm vs. Th 10-10:30pm) -35%
5. American Idol (Tu 8-10pm vs. Tu 8-9:30pm) -33%

The year-to-year drops have been ugly for Idol all season, but they've gotten worse over the course of this February sweep. The show went from just missing this top five list (it was -27% on both nights in week one) to barely getting onto the list last week to pretty much monopolizing it this week. For Top Model to be down this much following a year-ago season that was down so much is almost unimaginable. (This situation has really required me to unearth the full extent of my un____able vocabulary!) The show has gone from near-crown jewel of the network to literally a H8R-sized program in the space of about one calendar year.

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2012 Week Three Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. The Cleveland Show (Su 7:30-8pm vs. Su 9:30-10pm) -54%
t-2. Gossip Girl (M 8-9pm vs. M 9-10pm) -38%
t-2. Nikita (F 8-9pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -38%
4. Law and Order: SVU -36%
5. American Idol Wednesday -35%


This week, "broadcast" (or the sum of the big five networks' averages for the week) was down by 7% year-to-year. How much of that year-to-year drop is wrapped up in the fast crumbling American Idol? If I plug in the year-ago numbers for Idol (that is, if we pretend Idol were even year-to-year), that year-to-year trend comes all the way up to exactly even. (OK, actually -0.05%.) This show is such a big part of the ratings picture that when it airs four hours a week as it did this week, the massive drops don't just hurt the show or even Fox. They are felt across the entire broadcast week as a whole to the tune of more than 3% per night. But let's talk about Fox. They can't like having two of these top five, plus #6 (Idol Thursday, -33%), #7 (Glee, -32%) and #8 (House, -31%).

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2012 Week Two Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. The Cleveland Show (Su 7:30-8pm vs. Su 9:30-10pm) -46%
t-2. Glee -33%
t-2. Desperate Housewives -33%
4. Winter Wipeout -32%
5. 30 Rock (Th 8-9pm vs. Th 10-10:30pm) -30%

There's a lot of new blood on the show losers list this week (with only 30 Rock returning from last week). I guess that's a reminder that there are a lot of struggling shows. Because of its timeslot downgrade, The Cleveland Show was the biggest year-to-year victim on Grammy night, but Fox as a whole was down over 20%. Desperate Housewives has had a rough year, but it was yet another result that was largely about Grammy's surge.

Demos Year-to-Year, February Sweeps 2012 Week One Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. 30 Rock (Th 8-8:30pm vs. Th 10-10:30pm) -46%
2. Nikita (F 8-9pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -44%
3. Dateline (F 10-11pm vs. F 9-11pm) -42%
4. House -42%
5. Parks and Recreation (Th 8:30-9pm vs. Th 9:30-10pm) -29%

It's been the "year of the comedy" for pretty much everyone but NBC, as you can see by two of their comedies making this list. To be fair, both of those shows also moved into tougher situations, facing Idol in the lead-off hour. Also, NBC claimed 30 Rock got hosed by some program guide mix-ups. But even if it got the 1.5 demo they think it shoulda gotten, it'd still make this list! (At -38%) Nikita's a Friday exile, while Dateline is losing the Friday 10/9c battle with 20/20 in a big way.

Then there's House, down 42% from its Super Monday 2011 airing. Later in the week, it was announced it's done after this season. Coincidence?! Probably so, since huge year-to-year drops are nothing new for this House season. There's a chance House could finish down by 25%+ in three of its last four seasons, which I guess says a lot about how big the show once was; most shows don't have the ratings cushion to be able to weather multiple drops of that size.

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week Four Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -47%
2. America's Next Top Model (clips) (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -43%
3. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -42%
4. 20/20 -30%
5. The Biggest Loser: Where Are They Now? -29%

Just spitballing here, but here's a theory: perhaps as television franchises head into the toilet, the non-essential "specials" that come along with them become even less important. Case in point: the fast-declining The Biggest Loser and even faster-declining America's Next Top Model both saw their Thanksgiving Eve specials (one a clip show, one a "Where Are They Now?") take even bigger drops than the seasons as a whole generally have. 20/20 was crushed on Friday at 10/9c by a couple shows up at least 25% year-to-year. (See below.)

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week Three Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (F 8-9pm vs. Su 8-9pm) -68%
2. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -50%
3. Glee -40%
4. House (M 9-10pm vs. M 8-9pm) -38%
5. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -35%

Chuck and Home Edition will always be down because they got moved to Friday; Home Edition's larger drop this week is (at least I think) because it aired a clip show-ish thing this week. Then you have three Fox dramas, all down massively from last year. It hints at something that's been percolating in my brain this week but that I think has been really under-reported; when you think about it, Fox has a surprisingly thin roster of scripted shows moving forward over even the somewhat long term. Glee and House may be around next year but are almost certainly "over" as big tentpoles. They have a still somewhat solid drama in Bones, a couple animation anchors on Sunday, and they admittedly have a promising new comedy in New Girl. And... that's basically it, in terms of stuff you can feel pretty good about. Three of those four are really old shows. What's the future of the network, drama-wise? Something to think about.

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week Two Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (F 8-10pm vs. Su 8-9pm) -48%
2. 60 Minutes (Su 8-9pm vs. Su 7-8pm) -42%
3. 20/20 -39%
4. Nikita (F 8-9pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -40%
t-5. America's Next Top Model (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -33%
t-5. Gossip Girl (M 8-9pm vs. M 9-10pm) -33%
t-5. Private Practice -33%

It was a particularly bad week for the newsmagazines, as I'm guessing (but could be wrong) they both had year-ago coverage of the midterm elections, and apparently this year's editions couldn't come up with anything that interesting. (60 Minutes also had a national NFL overrun.) Friday exiles Nikita and Home Edition should be mainstays on this list. Then there are a couple struggling CW shows and Private Practice, which had the misfortune of facing a year-ago crossover episode that did easily a season high.

Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week One Winners/Losers

As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.

The rules for what qualifies for these lists seemingly change with every new sweep, but for now, I'm going with this: all totally original vs. original comparisons qualify and all repeat vs. repeat comparisons qualify (except for Saturdays, sports overruns and pregame shows). Original vs. repeat comparisons only qualify for the losers lists and repeat vs. original comparisons only qualify for the winners lists. These rules kind of muck up some of the lists this week, but we'll go with it.