Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Premiere Week Year-to-Year: Top 10 Winners/Losers

As I said before the season, I'm retiring the daily Demos Year-to-Year posts, but I do want to continue doing the recap posts that spotlight the top gainers/losers of the week. I may not do them for every single sweeps week, but I'm definitely doing at least one for each sweeps period.

For this premiere edition, the SHOW winners/losers count not just the premieres from premiere week, but all of the season/series premieres that I count under the 2012-13 banner through September 30 (dating back to Grimm on August 13). The TIMESLOT winners/losers count only timeslot comparisons during the traditional premiere week (September 24-30). TIMESLOT also only counts original-vs.-original comparisons.

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW losers
1. Two and a Half Men (Th 8:30-9pm vs. M 9-9:30pm) -67%
2. Up All Night (Th 8:30-9pm vs. W 10-10:30pm) -65%
3. America's Next Top Model (F 8-9pm vs. W 9-10pm) -56%
4. 2 Broke Girls (M 9-9:30pm vs. M 9:30-10pm) -48%
5. Hawaii Five-0 -47%
6. The Office -46%
7. New Girl (Tu 8-8:30pm vs. Tu 9-9:30pm) -42%
8. Dancing with the Stars Mon -38%
9. The Voice Mon -37%
10. Mike and Molly -35%

I'm always careful to note that these lists are poisoned somewhat by the occasional number that's extremely inflated or deflated for whatever reason. Two and a Half Men, Up All Night and 2 Broke Girls are all being compared against hyper-inflated episodes that were about 50% stronger than anything else the show's ever done. Top Model moved to Friday. But then again, it's not like all those results weren't somewhat disappointing anyway. Among the more "organic" drops: Hawaii Five-0, The Office, New Girl and Dancing with the Stars. But even some of those have good excuses, like DWTS facing The Voice.

Top 10 year-to-year SHOW gainers
1. 20/20 +50%
2. Rock Center +40%
3. Bob's Burgers +37%
4. The Voice Tue (Tu 8-9pm vs. Tu 9-10pm) +25%
5. Saturday Night Football +11%
6. Grey's Anatomy +7%
7. Primetime: What Would You Do? +6%
8. Shark Tank +6%
9. Scandal +5%
10. The Big Bang Theory +2%

These were both the top ten gainers and the only ten gainers. Again, I only count a few of these as truly "organic" results: Grey's Anatomy, Primetime: What Would You Do?, Shark Tank, and The Big Bang Theory. 20/20 did great, but it also had much better teammates on the night. Rock Center was NBC's choice to lead out of the America's Got Talent finale. Bob's Burgers finally gets to feel what it's like to air in the time of year when the NFL is uplifting the animation. And The Voice never aired on Tuesday during the high-rated blind auditions phase last year.

Top 10 year-to-year TIMESLOT losers
1. 2 Broke Girls (vs. Two and a Half Men, CBS Monday 9-9:30pm) -65%
2. Mike and Molly (vs. 2 Broke Girls, CBS Monday 9:30-10pm) -56%
3. Rock Center (vs. Prime Suspect, NBC Thursday 10-11pm) -54%
4. Partners (vs. How I Met Your Mother, CBS Monday 8:30-9pm) -54%
5. Parks and Recreation (vs. Whitney, NBC Thursday 9:30-10pm) -52%
6. Scandal (vs. Grey's Anatomy, ABC Thursday 10-11pm) -51%
7. The Mob Doctor (vs. Hell's Kitchen, Fox Monday 9-10pm) -50%
8. The Neighbors (vs. Modern Family, ABC Wednesday 9:30-10pm) -48%
9. Ben and Kate (vs. Glee, Fox Tuesday 8:30-9pm) -48%
10. Glee (vs. The X Factor Thu, Fox Thursday 9-10pm) -47%

In case it's not clear from the top five, CBS Monday (compared to last year's Ashton-inflated Monday) and NBC Thursday were both really big year-to-year droppers. Other occupants on those nights like The Office and Hawaii Five-0 just barely missed the list despite being same-timeslot. There were a few shows that, while perhaps still disappointing, suffered from having to go up against a double-length premiere for a big hit last year: Partners, Scandal, The Neighbors, Glee.

Top 10 year-to-year TIMESLOT gainers
1. The Voice Mon (vs. The Sing-Off, NBC Monday 8-10pm) +132%
2. Revolution (vs. The Playboy Club, NBC Monday 10-11pm) +106%
3. The Voice Tue (vs. The Biggest Loser, NBC Tuesday 8-9pm) +87%
4. Once Upon a Time (vs. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, ABC Sunday 8-9pm) +70%
5. 20/20 (ABC Friday 10-11pm) +24%
6. Guys with Kids (vs. Free Agents, NBC Wednesday 8:30-9pm) +23%
7. Law and Order: SVU (vs. Harry's Law/Law and Order: SVU, NBC Wednesday 9-11pm) +13%
8. Go On (vs. The Biggest Loser, NBC Tuesday 9-9:30pm) +17%
9. Elementary (vs. The Mentalist, CBS Thursday 10-11pm) +13%
10. Sunday Night Football (NBC Sunday 8:30-11pm) +12%

NBC!!! What a difference a Voice makes, as it and the shows airing right after it have four of the top eight spots. In total, the peacock's got seven of the top 10. Always helps to have bombed really hard last year. Once Upon a Time, meanwhile, enjoys one last favorable comparison with Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, which it regularly thumped on these lists last season.

1 comment:

Spot said...

3 hours of The Voice Mon/Tue and another 3 fueled by it anchoring nights makes the difference. Voice is to flame out too soon going all season around ... but launching some new shows + weakening other broadcasters = positive move, 2 to 1.

If I'm not wrong, NBC is y2y up 12% in premiere week with other big 3 each down more than 20%. Then it would mean big 4 as total lost as much as 2 rating points, from 12.1 to 10.1? Ouch. I suppose HUT is not dramatically down, but cable&others taking another chunk.

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