Wednesday, October 24, 2012

First Two Weeks, Nashville


WEEK ONE
ABC waited till week three of the season to premiere Nashville due to a week two debate. While the show had a seemingly decent 2.8 demo and was easily ABC's biggest drama premiere of the fall, that was below most expectations and represented a huge drop from its lead-in (the 4.9 demo from Modern Family at 9:30). It was 15% weaker than last year's Revenge premiere in the same slot, though Modern Family was 20% weaker than on that night.

WEEK TWO
Week two was another disappointing result for Nashville, as the show tumbled 29% all the way down to a 2.0. A lot of that was the change in lead-in; this time it only had a 2.8 demo at 9:30 from Suburgatory. In the True2 numbers, the drop was a more typical 15%, but that's still a more drastic tumble than Revenge took when it lost the Modern lead-in in week two. It also fell behind other timeslot occupants like CSI (2.3) and FX's American Horror Story (2.2).

PROGNOSIS
It was going to take a lot for me to not say Renew to this show, because I feel like ABC reeeeeally wants to renew this one. Unfortunately, a lot has happened. Week one was rather disappointing and week two, though I don't think it was as bad as some people think, was still at the very least rather disappointing. It's not a bomb yet, but it doesn't look like it's a Revenge either, and it's hard to feel all that confident about where it's going to settle. I need another week. One more sizable drop and I may have to bail on yet another ABC show. Defer.

WEEK THREE/PROGNOSIS (added 11/1/2012)
Nashville held on in week three, hitting another 2.0 demo despite Suburgatory dropping to 2.7 at 9:30. It also had stronger competition with CSI and Chicago Fire rising plus Game 1 of the World Series. Plus, 666 Park Ave is stuck in the mid-1's with a similar-sized lead-in and Last Resort dipped into the low-1's last week, meaning this now looks like the strongest option of ABC's three new dramas. The ratings are still disappointing relative to the preseason expectations, but they're going to have to get behind something, and right now the week three steadiness makes this the best candidate. Renew.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.

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