Two changes of note this year. First: next week, I will create a separate page for each network, and I will update those every week when I do all the SpotVault updates. This will keep the numbers linked on the right sidebar much more up to date than last year. But the full-fledged versions in which I actually write stuff will be considerably less frequent. The current plan is to do those four times: now (beginning of November sweeps), early January (beginning of midseason), late February (end of February sweeps) and late April (beginning of May sweeps/pre-upfront). Subject to change!
Second change: I'm trying yet another new "formula" for the averages below. The A18-49 and True2 averages now average the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. This seems like a decent way to quickly remove the value of inflated series premieres and give a show a larger sample if it's aired a larger number of episodes. I list how many episodes have aired (through the last full week, ending October 21) and how many of those are counted in the averages for each show.
Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
|NBC Comedies||True2||A18-49||Counted Eps||Eps|
|Still in the Game|
|2||Parks and Recreation||1.80||1.75||2||4|
|4||The New Normal||1.56||1.85||2||6|
|5||Guys with Kids||1.46||1.40||2||5|
This is one of those rare cases where my True2 numbers tell a very different story than the raw numbers. Go On looks like a success in the raw numbers (where it's 0.2 ahead of even The Office), but True2 thinks it is pretty fraudulent. It's a weaker show than not only The Office but even (narrowly) Parks and Rec. Getting a low-to-mid-2 out of a megahit program will do that. Bottom line is the show would be much lower in virtually any other situation, and we saw this in the one episode it aired after a (still pretty high-rated) Voice clips show. Still, it does Truly edge the other NBC new shows in worse situations, and it'd probably get renewed even if it were getting a 1.7 in a "normal" situation.
With all that being said, the main reason why other people get away with ignoring lead-ins is because networks tend to give the big lead-ins to the shows they really like. Go On is almost certainly getting renewed. It's just not a show that I'd feel comfortable moving into an anchor role anywhere else at this juncture.
|6||Up All Night||1.31||1.20||2||5|
The bottom two are definitely ending. Is Up All Night definitely ending? I think so, but then I thought so for most of the stretch run last year. We know 30 Rock will be leaving the Thursday mix; is it a given that Community will take its place? Do they also add a newbie like 1600 Penn or The Farm in place of Up All Night? Or might they even contract the lineup to one hour so they can fit in something like The Biggest Loser?
|NBC Dramas||True2||A18-49||Counted Eps||Eps|
|4||Law and Order: SVU||1.58||1.60||1||3|
Unlike Go On, Revolution has big enough numbers that it seems fairly legit even after you strip out the huge boost from The Voice. There are only a couple dramas on TV (NCIS and Grey's Anatomy) that at this point appear definitively Truly stronger than Revolution. There's still a whole lot of season to go, but at the moment it looks like it could possibly be a show that NBC could consider to anchor another night in season two.
While the bottom three dramas all had pretty good results this week (not included above), my guess is that they will still line up in close to the same order on next week's version. Parenthood routed its broadcast competitors and may be as safe as ever right now, and Chicago Fire definitely helped its odds in week three.
|NBC Unscripted||True2||A18-49||Counted Eps||Eps|
|1||The Voice Mon||4.11||4.80||2||6|
|2||The Voice Tue||3.94||4.55||2||6|