Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The True Top 25, Week Ending 10/28/12 (2012-13 Week Five)

Sunday Night Football won the True Top 25 once again, holding off the top comedies on ABC and CBS. Modern Family held off The Big Bang Theory in a week when TBBT didn't have very much competition. Outside of those usual suspects, it was a highly irregular week; most of the Monday programming was shortened or off the air due to a debate and Fox had five nights fully devoted to baseball. All four World Series games and both NFL games made the list, and a huge result from Grimm put it on the list for the first time.

Rank Name True2 A18-49 ARank
1Sunday Night Football5.557.01
2Modern Family4.664.93
3The Big Bang Theory4.625.02
4The Voice Tue3.964.35
5World Series (Thu)3.743.59
6World Series (Sun)3.734.74
7World Series (Wed)3.613.68
8The Voice Mon3.564.35
9Two and a Half Men3.313.77
10Saturday Night Football3.292.914
11Grey's Anatomy3.143.013
13World Series (Sat)3.042.816
14Criminal Minds2.833.112
15Person of Interest2.672.914
17Once Upon a Time2.553.410
18The Middle2.552.622
19New Girl2.432.719
20Dancing with the Stars Tue2.242.328
21NLCS (Mon)2.162.424
22NCIS: Los Angeles2.142.816
24Dancing with the Stars Mon2.112.424

Missing the True Top 25 but in the A18-49 list: Suburgatory (t-#19 in A18-49, #28 in True2), Revenge (t-#19 in A18-49, #29 in True2), The Amazing Race (#23 in A18-49, #31 in True2) and Go On (t-#24 in A18-49, #46 in True2).

For more on the True Top 25, click to expand.
I created the True Strength number so I could have an objective way of comparing shows across vastly different situations. One of the most fun comparisons to be made is among the biggest shows on TV. What's really the strongest show in a vacuum? Hence my new weekly feature the True Top 25. This will compare shows while accounting for everything so we can see who Truly comes out on top. I include both the A18-49 and the weekly ranking in A18-49 so you can see the changes within the rankings that True Strength makes.

The A18-49 rankings aren't based on Nielsen's "official" broadcast top 25. They're derived from my own spreadsheet just using the big-five networks, so none of the big players on Univision are included. I've also weeded out some weird programming like NFL overruns and sports pre-game shows. Most of that stuff airs largely out of primetime or is strangely split apart, so I don't want to muddle the list with that.

As mentioned on the sports SpotVault pages, True Strengths for sporting events are based on the primetime portion only. Perhaps in future editions I'll try to get the primetime portion only A18-49 into the A18-49 rankings so it'll be a totally fair comparison. 

Here's last week's True Top 25!


Spot said...

That's huge 33% SNF difference between True2 and Live+SD.
I thought your tweaks intended not to punish show for making viewers out of thin air (for increasing PUT), and in fact opposite happens.

Either I understood wrongly, either somewhere in formulas you have '-' where '+' should be.

Spot said...

My sincerest thanks as always. Yes, error in the formula.

As I wrote late last summer: , I made a last minute change to add back in half of a sports event's rating as competition to account for PUT inflation. But it seems that wasn't in the formula on my 2012-13 sheet. Guess I copied all the formulas over to 2012-13 before I made that 11th hour change. Have corrected all the SpotVault numbers. Thankfully this didn't affect anything other than sports programs.

It's now a 5.55 for Sunday Night Football. Perhaps still lower than it seems like it "should" be, but at least it's the actual formula now. I maintain that viewing would be high on Sunday even without the NFL inflation (as it is in the spring/summer without the NFL).

Thanks again.

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