Thursday, October 11, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/10/12: Green Giant


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The CW certainly proved they can still open a show, but Arrow was not quite the massive smash in younger demos that appeared possible based on early metered-market household numbers. It had about four million viewers, a 1.3 A18-49, and a 1.1 A18-34 number. Those numbers get worse the younger you go. It is a fantastic start by current CW standards, and a bit better than I expected; my pick was 1.2, but I set the over/under lower because it seemed like most people were going lower. It's not necessarily a big game-changer, but I'm sure the network will happily take it. The show also helped Supernatural take a noticeable week-to-week upswing; I guess having a 333% bigger lead-in is a good thing.
  • The other point of huge interest was the 10/9c drama battle. Chicago Fire did exactly what I expected, holding onto its Law and Order: SVU lead-in (1.8 overall, 1.9 in the 9:30 half-hour) and going just south of 2.0. Nothing special, but potentially workable on scripted-challenged NBC. Nashville of course rode its three-point lead-in advantage to an easy demo win in the head-to-head battle, but I expected a little better, and it dropped noticeably at the half (3.0 -> 2.5). This matchup should tighten up once Suburgatory takes over at 9:30 on ABC, and a rising CSI has a good shot to finish first by next week.
  • As first reported here, last week's debate situation was a boon to NBC, where Animal Practice and Guys with Kids each dropped by two tenths with no debate, and a bane to ABC, where The Middle and The Neighbors rallied a bit with Modern Family (4.7 at 9:00, 4.9 at 9:30) back in the mix.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 7.90 2.4 +9%n/a 2/3 -14% +9% -14% 2.18
The Neighbors 6.39 2.0 +5%+9% 2/3 n/a +5% -35% 1.84
Modern Family 12.08 4.8 -13%-31% 2/2 -16% +60% -16% 4.70
Modern Family 12.31 4.9 +2%+140% 2/3 -14% +63% +75% 4.55
Nashville 8.93 2.8 n/an/a 1/1 n/a +2% +17% 2.02
Survivor 9.82 2.8 -7%n/a 4/4 -10% -7% -11% 2.60
Criminal Minds 11.49 3.0 -3%-10% 2/2 -21% +0% -21% 3.02
CSI 10.70 2.6 +4%-3% 1/2 -10% +2% -12% 2.15
Animal Practice 3.80 1.1 -15%n/a 3/3 n/a -15% -52% 1.03
Guys with Kids 4.19 1.4 -13%-15% 4/4 n/a -13% +40% 1.51
Law and Order: SVU 6.24 1.8 -14%-13% 2/2 -14% -40% +44% 2.01
Chicago Fire 6.61 1.9 n/an/a 1/1 n/a -34% -12% 1.74
The X Factor Wed 9.56 3.5 +0%n/a 2/5 -15% +8% -2% 3.42
Arrow 4.14 1.3 n/an/a 1/1 n/a +333% +271% 1.27
Supernatural 2.51 1.0 +25%+333% 1/2 +43% +25% +25% 0.97

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

2 comments:

Spot said...

I really liked Arrow's premiere, and after seeing it I was tempted to change to over, but didn't. I just was more wary of The CW's promotional effort than the show itself. I didn't know if the channel lost their male audience for good. Plus, like most others, I was spooked by the super-low numbers the first couple of days.


As for the Battle of the 10 PM dramas, I have to say that Chicago Fire basically met expectations. There's only so much you can do with a comparatively weak lead-in. Growing from SVU is a good start, but it still needs to get into the 2s and stay there to really have a chance.


As for Nashville, I seem to be in the minority, but debuting below 3.0 is a fairly big disappointment. The huge drop halfway isn't exactly encouraging, either.

Spot said...

If Nashville's half hours had been a 2.9 and a 2.7, I would call its 2.8 a moderate success. But that huge drop could be a major problem.

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