Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Question, Tuesday 10/23/12: Do We Trust the Ratings to Have a Happy Ending?

Happy Endings and Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23 both aired their 2011-12 runs after the biggest scripted show on TV, Modern Family. But they're not in Kansas anymore; tonight they'll be asked to find a pulse on a very weak ABC night vs. brutal competition. Do we trust the ratings to have a happy ending? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 23, 2012.

Happy Endings in 2011-12 Apartment 23 in 2011-12
3.1 premiere (9/28/11, 5.7 Modern lead-in)
2.71 average (4.60 average lead-in)
1.7 finale (1.8 Modern (R) lead-in)
averaged 1.85 in spring 2012 after Modern repeats (which averaged 2.03)
2.9 premiere (4/11/12, 4.2 Modern lead-in)
2.34 average (3.86 average lead-in)
2.4 finale (4.1 Modern lead-in)
scored a 2.0 in week three after Modern repeat

As I said in the fall preview, there is really no reason to believe that this will work. Happy Endings faces a show that skews as similarly as probably anything in primetime, New Girl, and then Apartment 23 has to deal with a special The X Factor. There are also not-total-failure comedies airing on NBC. The other ABC shows that sandwich this block (Dancing with the Stars and Private Practice) don't seem compatible at all. I could see them getting near a 2.0 just because it's a premiere night, they've been really heavily promoted in the circles I frequent, and maybe there's a chance they were incompatible enough with Modern Family that they have an audience that'll follow them away from that show. I could also see low 1's right out of the gate; most of the lineups that looked bad before the season have ended up even worse than they looked. So I'm going right in the middle.

Over/Under: 3.25 for Happy Endings rating PLUS Apartment 23 rating.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.


Spot said...

I agree - this looks like a nasty timeslot, and I don't think either has a large enough following to get really good numbers...but it's going to be real close on premiere night.

Under. Just barely.

Spot said...

Line seems too pessimistic to me, that is for season premieres

Spot said...

Over. All I need is 1.8 and 1.5.

Spot said...

I think the line is right on, Silvio. Low 2s lead-in. Mid 1s lead-out. Neither show's really proven to be a self-starter. Mindy Project only managed a 2.4 with a LOT more advertising and a bigger lead-in. Plus, now they're competing with four like-minded shows instead of two (as Fox did) or none (as NBC did). That's a big head start for the competitors. My guesses:

HE: 1.6
Apt. 23: 1.4

Under at 3.0, and that pains me, because they're two of my favorite shows.

Spot said...

I'm probably going to regret this, but over.
(There may or may not be a little wishful thinking involved with this bet.)

Spot said...

< Soapbox >

This is so clearly a case of ABC not knowing what to do with its marginal :30 shows that are wildly off-brand. I love these two shows, but ABC's family-friendly lean with its successful sitcoms means Happy Endings & Apt. 23 stick out like a pair of sore thumbs. Plus this is a night that's been in mismashed shambles since According to Jim and NYPD Blue aired here, and even then that's with an asterisk. How could ABC's programming gurus look at Dancing with the Stars, HE, Apt. 23, and Private Practice and think this makes any sense? Honestly, I think ABC only renewed both of these shows because they skew so young that they make the network's audience look younger than in reality. Too bad the network didn't develop compatible shows and fully attempt to do for Tuesday what it did for Wednesday twice (!!) in less than 3 seasons: a wholesale makeover. Instead, there's a half-hearted programmed night that's going to be in triage, again, for the whole season.

< /Soapbox >

I'm with Billie_Dawn: over, for no logical reason whatsoever.

Spot said...

Over, because I want to be optimistic despite strong evidence to the contrary.

Spot said...

I'd like to think they could go over, but I've been wrong too many times so will go the other way. Under.

Spot said...

I have been doing so poorly, and the one time that I placed my pick after 6:00 AM, I got it right!

Happy: 1.8
Apt 23: 1.6
Total: 3.4


Spot said...

Over. But not by much and I will probably be wrong as always anyway. I wanted this block to work so badly. It would make sooooo much more sense to put the freaking comedies at 8 and run away from new girl and go on. yes the voice is bigger but the crossed audience at 9 is bigger. new girl proved it could do the same audience at 8 than at 9, and new girl and happy endings are basically the same type of show.... So sad to see them against each other. I prefer new girl but i love my happy endings too (and I also have been liking go on), so i want all three to survive, but seems very difficult for happy endings at this point. apartment 23 is the only want i watch at 9h30 and i actually think it could surprise a bit since mindy is underperfoming a lot (and i dont really think it appeals to the same people that enjoy the new normal)

Spot said...

I agree about liking this block. At 9, I love Go On and Happy Endings. I also like New Girl, but I do not usually watch it. At 9:30, though, I only like Apt. 23.

Spot said...

Over, but not by much!

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