Wednesday, October 10, 2012

First Two Weeks, Guys with Kids


WEEK ONE
As with all the other NBC comedies, I'm not counting the preview ratings (a 2.2 demo after America's Got Talent, airing two weeks before the timeslot premiere). In its debut at 8:30, Guys with Kids scored a pretty weak 1.6 demo. The good news is that this was better than what its Animal Practice lead-in managed (a 1.4).

WEEK TWO
In week two, the gap between Guys with Kids and Animal Practice opened a bit more. While AP was down a tick, Guys with Kids held up completely at a 1.6. The caveat is that this was a pretty atypical Wednesday. NBC aired debate coverage at 9:00.

PROGNOSIS
If there weren't two much more compelling The Question posts begging to be made on this day, I'd probably have considered asking, "Is Guys with Kids For Real?" 1.6 is still a pretty weak number, but it's a number that could stick around on NBC, and it's a number that would likely inspire NBC to try the pairing of Whitney and Guys with Kids that should've been announced at the upfront. That said, the wonkiness of the debate situation on Wednesday makes me feel like Guys with Kids might take a plunge in week three. NBC was really the only of the four networks where the debate created much better ratings than the normal 9:00 hour programming would have, and because it's largely watched live, it's also more likely to get people tuning in early. So I'm finally going to Defer one. Hold onto that 1.6 for one more week and I'd have to lean renewal. Even with a 1.5 (especially if it still does a lot better than AP) I might slightly lean that way. 1.4 or lower and I'm going cancel.

WEEK THREE/PROGNOSIS (added 10/17/2012)
The third week indeed saw a drop, and it was to the top end of what I said I'd rule a cancel: 1.4 (-13%). However, the gap with Animal Practice remained, as that show fell to a 1.1. I'm now going to lean Cancel on this one, though I am not incredibly confident. The show's probably getting a change (and quite possibly an upgrade) in situation if/when Whitney gets skedded on Wednesday. But Whitney is not exactly some huge-rated savior, and a 1.4 is still a 1.4.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.

1 comment:

Spot said...

I think people are being way too optimistic about this show.

This seems like a clear-cut cancellation to me. Sure, it gained on the half-hour with a miserable lead-in but, ultimately, its timeslot premiere was 1.6. Its ratings only look good because its sat next to a bigger bomb.

I can't see Whitney, whose own existence is under threat, providing it with much cover nor can I imagine NBC saving the show by putting it after Go On (ala 30 Rock).

I can foresee a situation where it does well enough to drag itself into a back 9 but I struggle to imagine it getting renewed. If it's getting 1.6 now, what sort of ratings will it be getting by Spring?

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