Monday, October 8, 2012

First Two Weeks, The 2012-13 Lineups


Here are my yearly lineups of each new scripted show's premiere rating and its week two drop. I will add the "system" scoring method once I get a few more numbers in. This page will be linked on all of the individual First Two Weeks posts.

A18-49 Ratings:

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Revolution 4.1
Arrow (3.9)
Beauty and the Beast (3.6)
Go On 3.4
The Neighbors 3.3
The Following 3.2
Elementary 3.1
How to Live 2.9
Malibu Country (2.9) 
Nashville 2.8 
Vegas 2.5 

The New Normal 2.5
The Mindy Project 2.4
Partners 2.4
Last Resort 2.2
Ben and Kate 2.1
666 Park Ave 2.1 
Deception 2.0 
Chicago Fire 1.9 
The Carrie Diaries (1.8) 
Golden Boy 1.8 
Hannibal 1.6

Guys with Kids 1.6
1600 Penn 1.6
Emily Owens M.D. (1.5)
Family Tools 1.5
Red Widow 1.5
The Mob Doctor 1.5
Zero Hour 1.4
Animal Practice 1.4
Made in Jersey (1.4)
Do No Harm 0.9 
Cult (0.9)

Friday shows multiplied by 1.25. CW shows multiplied by 3.

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Hannibal +6%
The Following +3%
Arrow even
Go On even
Guys with Kids even
Cult even
Animal Practice -7%
Golden Boy -11%
The New Normal -12%
Partners -13%
The Mob Doctor -13% 

Last Resort -14% 
How to Live -14%
The Carrie Diaries -17%
Revolution -17% 
666 Park Ave -19%
Elementary -19%
Vegas -20%
Deception -20%
Family Tools -20%
The Mindy Project -21%
Chicago Fire -21%

Zero Hour -21%
Do No Harm -22%
Ben and Kate -24%
1600 Penn -25%
Malibu Country -26%
Red Widow -27%
Made in Jersey -27%
Nashville -29%
Emily Owens M.D. -40%
The Neighbors -41%
Beauty and the Beast -42%

6 POINTS: Arrow, Go On, The Following
5 POINTS: Elementary, Revolution, Vegas, How to Live
4 POINTS: Beauty and the Beast, The Neighbors, The New Normal, Partners, Malibu Country, Golden Boy, Nashville, Hannibal
3 POINTS: The Mindy Project, 666 Park Ave, Deception, Chicago Fire, The Carrie Diaries, Last Resort
2 POINTS: Ben and Kate, Guys with Kids, Animal Practice, Cult
1 POINT: The Mob Doctor, Family Tools
0 POINTS: Emily Owens M.D., Made in Jersey, 1600 Penn, Do No Harm, Red Widow, Zero Hour

True2:

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Arrow (3.90)
Revolution 3.64
Elementary 3.02 
The Following 2.87
Beauty and the Beast (2.73)
Go On 2.63
The Neighbors 2.52
How to Live 2.52
Deception 2.36
Last Resort 2.34 
Malibu Country 2.22  

Partners 2.14
The New Normal 2.05
Hannibal 2.04
Vegas 2.03
Nashville 2.02
The Mindy Project 1.99
Ben and Kate 1.95
666 Park Ave 1.86
The Carrie Diaries (1.82) 
Family Tools 1.80
Zero Hour 1.79 

Guys with Kids 1.78
Chicago Fire 1.72
1600 Penn 1.69
Golden Boy 1.65
The Mob Doctor 1.49
Red Widow 1.37
Animal Practice 1.37
Made in Jersey 1.32
Emily Owens M.D. (1.23) 
Do No Harm 1.03 
Cult (0.93)

CW shows multiplied by 3.

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
The Following +3%
Golden Boy +1%
Cult -4%
How to Live -5%
Hannibal -6%
Arrow -6%
Guys with Kids -7%
Animal Practice -7%
Revolution -9%
Go On -12%
Do No Harm -12%

Last Resort -14%
Nashville -15%
Vegas -16%
Chicago Fire -16%
Ben and Kate -17%
The Mindy Project -17%
The Mob Doctor -17%
The New Normal -18%
Partners -20%
Red Widow -21%
Family Tools -22%

1600 Penn -22% 
666 Park Ave -23% 
Malibu Country -24%
Elementary -25%
The Carrie Diaries -25%
Made in Jersey -27%
The Neighbors -30%
Zero Hour -32%
Emily Owens M.D. -34%
Deception -39%
Beauty and the Beast -41%

6 POINTS: Arrow, Revolution, Go On, The Following, How to Live
5 POINTS: Last Resort
4 POINTS: Elementary, Beauty and the Beast, The Neighbors, Deception, Hannibal, Malibu Country
3 POINTS: Partners, The New Normal, Vegas, Ben and Kate, The Mindy Project, Nashville
2 POINTS: Guys with Kids, Animal Practice, Do No Harm, The Carrie Diaries, Cult, 666 Park Ave, Zero Hour, Golden Boy
1 POINT: Chicago Fire, The Mob Doctor, Deception, Red Widow, Family Tools
0 POINTS: Emily Owens M.D., Made in Jersey, 1600 Penn

The "Eye Test" Prognoses:

Go On - RENEW - INCORRECT
The New Normal - CANCEL - CORRECT
The Mob Doctor - CANCEL - CORRECT
Revolution - RENEW - CORRECT
Partners - CANCEL - CORRECT
The Mindy Project - RENEW - CORRECT
Ben and Kate - CANCEL - CORRECT
Vegas  - CANCEL - CORRECT
Animal Practice - CANCEL - CORRECT
Guys with Kids - defer -> CANCEL - CORRECT
The Neighbors - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Last Resort - defer -> CANCEL - CORRECT
Elementary - RENEW - CORRECT
Made in Jersey - CANCEL - CORRECT
666 Park Ave - CANCEL - CORRECT
Arrow - RENEW - CORRECT
Nashville - defer -> RENEW - CORRECT
Chicago Fire - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Beauty and the Beast - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Emily Owens M.D. - CANCEL - CORRECT 
Malibu Country - defer -> CANCEL - CORRECT
Deception - CANCEL - CORRECT
1600 Penn - CANCEL - CORRECT
The Carrie Diaries - defer -> CANCEL - INCORRECT
The Following - RENEW - CORRECT
Do No Harm - CANCEL - CORRECT 
Zero Hour - CANCEL - CORRECT
Cult - CANCEL - CORRECT
Golden Boy - CANCEL - CORRECT
Red Widow - CANCEL  - CORRECT
How to Live - RENEW - INCORRECT
Hannibal - RENEW
Family Tools - CANCEL - CORRECT 

FINAL RECORD: 26-6 (81%) with Hannibal pending (so it'll be either 79% or 82%)

3 comments:

Spot said...

I do not Understand why Last Resort was cancelled since the above numbers seem to be favorable with a 14% addage??

Spot said...

80% is pretty good.

The only incorrect guess that ended up being a clear-cut decision was Chicago Fire. Every other one ended up being on the bubble at the end of the season.

Spot said...

It is interesting that you did quite well in this, it really shows that the first two weeks are very telling. I think that the only major miss was Chicago Fire because the situation of the show really changed and the first weeks' data did not reflect that. To another extent, I would say Beauty and the Beast was the second biggest miss because although its situation didn't change much, the CW situation as a whole changed a lot, so its relative position ended up changing more than the first weeks led us to believe too. Go On would be your other miss in my eyes, because it really fell a lot, so its position ended up changing too.

Your other three misses are shows that I believe the networks did an incorrect call such as How to Live, The Carrie Diaries and The Neighbors (although I would add MC to this group by definition since I am saying TN should have been canceled and you got that one right).


Excellent job, you certainly established your credibility with this!

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