Tuesday, January 29, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Carrie Diaries

The CW's Sex and the City prequel The Carrie Diaries got off to a disappointing start, opening its run on January 14 with 1.61 million viewers and a 0.6 demo rating. That was better than what 90210 averaged in the slot during the fall (0.48), but not by all that much. It faced a full-fledged slate of winter-time broadcast competition: The Bachelor, How I Met Your Mother and a high-rated The Big Bang Theory repeat, The Biggest Loser and Bones.

The Carrie Diaries downticked in week two to a 0.5 demo. That's a 17% drop, but since the number is so low, it's potentially very influenced by rounding. (It could be virtually even if it's 0.550 to 0.549, or it could be -31% if it's 0.649 to 0.450.) So I also tend to look at the total viewer number just for a little more clarity. It was pretty close to the same: -21% to 1.27 million.

If you're into putting Carrie on the network totem pole at this point, the rest of the week did not go well; Hart of Dixie beat it (0.6 on Tuesday), Beauty and the Beast beat it (0.7 after TVD) and Nikita tied it at 0.5 in a tougher Friday slot. But it is still a network with very little depth, and I have an inkling they really want to renew this considering the positive critical reception. I'm leaning toward cancel, but it's very tough to parse numbers as small as the ones that make up the CW bubble, so I'm gonna give this another week and just hope something makes the call abundantly clear. Defer.

Carrie stayed at a 0.5 in week three and added 110,000 viewers (while CBS went into repeats). Its relative standing actually improved a bit with Hart of Dixie dropping (0.5) and Nikita dropping (0.4) this week. I was slightly leaning cancel last week, and those things don't quite take me all the way to lean renew. They basically just take me to 50/50. I still really have no idea on this one. Since it's just a tick away from being almost completely dead, I'm going Cancel and just hoping that means I won't be wrong on both this and Beauty and the Beast. This is not one I'm going to beat myself up over if I miss it.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.


Spot said...

I could see this being renewed if they also plan on renewing Hart of Dixie, and the CW plans to pair them together, essentially writing off a night so they can focus on launching more genre-oriented shows like Arrow. Neither one of them is going to launch any other shows, and if Carrie bombs even harder next fall, 90210 can be brought back at midseason for a final run.

Spot said...

I agree with Billie_Dawn: Not much of what The CW has ordered to pilot this season looks very compatible with Hart of Dixie. Which means either Dixie may be canceled or the network wants to pair it with The Carrie Diaries, with 90210 getting the One Tree Hill/Gossip Girl final mini-season.

Spot said...

I think this is a cancel, unless they desperately want rid of 90210 (or love this show) to the point of renewing a lower-rated show.

Doubling-down on genre seems like a mistake to me. Networks need variety to succeed, there's diminishing returns appealing to the same audience, and it's possible the appeal starts wearing off. I think this is teen soaps all over again.

Spot said...

i think this is a cancel, would be surprised to see it getting back at this point

Spot said...

One question to Billie_Dawn and MScholar: What would you put on Mondays? That seems like a very tough night to be trying to launch from scratch, especially given the recent history of failure by what's already there.

Spot said...

I wouldn't put anything new on Monday. Next season, use whatever gets renewed out of Hart of Dixie/Carrie/90210/Beauty and the Beast. The network has so little depth that they're simply not going to be able to have a hit (even by their standards) on every night at this point, so write one night off for now and try to get new hits launched after Vampire Diaries and Arrow that they'll eventually be able to move to Mondays. Sure, that's only going to work if everything falls into place, but is it really worse than any other plan?

Spot said...

Your proposal still leaves a gaping hole of an entire night that needs to be filled. What will you program on Tuesdays?

Spot said...

Supernatural. Yes, it moved last year too, but its fanbase will follow it, and it should be used to fill out a compatible night while it's still around. Friday stays the same, so new shows go on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (same as this past season).

Spot said...

Mondays: This is the one night The CW shouldn't half-ass it with a new/old show pairing. Either go completely new or just surrender the night and focus on Tuesdays. If they go the latter, I'd program Hart of Dixie & The Carrie Diaries, with 90210 cycling in there for a final mini-season. But if The CW goes completely new, I'd put The Vampire Diaries spin-off (The Originals) here; with such a shallow bench, I hope they don't punt and put the two shows together on Thursdays.

Tuesdays: Supernatural should shift back here. I would pair it with either Beauty & the Beast (if it shows better promise in the back half of this season), Cult (if it succeeds [which I'm not counting on]), or The Originals.

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