Tuesday, January 29, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 1/29/13: Will Scheduling Changes Be Raising New Girl's Ratings?

Perhaps the ugliest story of the 2012-13 season in entertainment programming has been the Fox Tuesday disaster, with centerpiece New Girl taking a "sophomore bounce" of negative 36 percent. How much of that is on the dud newbies with which New Girl is surrounded, and how much of it is on the "niche-ness" of New Girl itself? Opinions vary. But we'll get some potential insight tonight, as the yanking of Ben and Kate (replacing it with a second Raising Hope original) means the show could well have its best lead-in since premiere week. Will scheduling changes be "raising" New Girl's ratings? That's The Question for Tuesday, January 29, 2013.

New Girl In Recent Weeks Raising Hope In Recent Weeks
2.1 (Tuesday 1/8/13, 1.2 B&K lead-in)
1.9 (Tuesday 1/15/13, 1.1 B&K)
2.2 (Tuesday 1/22/13, 1.2 B&K)
1.7 (Tuesday 1/8/13)
1.6 (Tuesday 1/15/13)
1.7 (Tuesday 1/22/13)

If Raising Hope does at 8:30 what it's been doing at 8:00, that should be worth a solid tenth of a point for New Girl. Also, Fox has given this Tuesday a relatively strong promo push from what I've seen, with a wedding on Raising Hope and "the kiss" on New Girl this week. But I'm keeping expectations tempered since last week's New Girl was a higher-end performance anyway, and the competition is tougher this week with CBS is back in originals. While ABC will be weaker at 9:00 with Happy Endings, that show likely has more crossover with New Girl than did last week's The Taste.

New Girl Over/Under: 2.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.


Spot said...

I'm taking the over. After last night's...thing...I think I'm going to give Fox the benefit of the doubt this week. (except for Glee. [zing])

Spot said...

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'll let my love for the show sway me in an optimistic direction and say over.

Spot said...

New Girl started trending down once Happy Endings came on in October, so the crossover argument has merit (a second Fox show, after Glee, that's getting dinged by an ABC show). And HE may have a stronger lead-in with The Taste than DWTS. But in New Girl's favor is how Go On's raw numbers are starting to align with its weak True2 numbers, so there's a larger comedy audience pool to attract.

I think New Girl can exceed its season averages tonight. Over.

Spot said...


Spot said...

I'm sticking with under. Anchor shows shouldn't be that lead-in dependent. As much as I like NG, it has been trending down so fast that it's hard to see it turning around on a dime. 2.2

Matt said...


Spot said...

Survivor Fan said "under" but it doesn't seem to have made it through Disqus for some reason.

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