Monday, January 28, 2013

The Question, Monday 1/28/13: Will The Following Follow It Up In Week Two?

Last week, Fox finally ended its season-long streak of underwhelming premieres with a solid start from The Following. Only The Voice-fueled Revolution had a better start among dramas this season. But a good premiere is only half the battle, as last year's timeslot occupant Alcatraz can attest. The quest to hold onto that audience begins tonight, and with timeslot leader CBS sitting out the last pre-sweeps Monday, it should have pretty much the best possible opportunity. Will The Following follow it up in week two? That's The Question for Monday, January 28, 2013.

The Following Last Week Recent Fox Drama Week Twos
3.2 (Monday 1/21/13, 2.3 Bones lead-in)
1.1 (pilot encore, Friday 1/25/13)
-0% (Terra Nova)
+29% (The Finder (with Idol lead-in))
-9% (Alcatraz (with House lead-in))
-18% (Touch)
-13% (The Mob Doctor)

The over/under is essentially an 8% drop, which is much less than the median week two drop among newbies this season (about 19%). But other recent shows (aforementioned Alcatraz as well as Go On particularly spring to mind) suggest that the best way for new shows to hold audience in week two is to get very little resistance from the broadcast competition. And The Following actually has less competition this week than last, with CBS in repeats. I don't see it holding 100%, since surely not everyone drawn in by the mega-promotion liked what they saw out of this polarizing show, but I think it could be pretty close.

Over/Under: 2.95.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.


Spot said...

Very tricky. I would go with -19% were it not for the absence of CBS of the night. As it is, I will give it a -10%. That is still a 2.9, but that would a good result IMO. So under.

Spot said...

I will go under at 2.8.

Spot said...


Spot said...

Under, 2.8.

Spot said...

Over. It might be one of those rare shows that grows in week two.

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