Saturday, January 19, 2013

The Question, Sunday 1/20/13: Will Hawaii Five-0 Ride the NFL Wave?


The timeslot after the primetime NFL conference championship game gets much less scrutiny than the post-Super Bowl slot. But the NFL is so monstrous that the hour provides an extremely significant boost. So, you know, why not give it to a third-year drama that's already had the slot and doesn't have much growth potential? Sunday, CBS will put Hawaii Five-0 back into the post-AFC Championship slot and then air another original the next night. Will Hawaii Five-0 ride the NFL wave? That's The Question for Sunday, January 20, 2013.

Hawaii Five-0 This Season vs. 2010-11 Post-Championship Game Shows
2.17 (average through 12 eps)
2.3 -> 2.3 -> 2.5 -> 2.4 -> 2.4 (last 5)
3.09 (average thru 14 2010-11 eps)
3.3 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.9 -> 2.9 (last 5)
7.9 (American Idol, 1/22/12, game 21.4)
5.6 (Hawaii Five-0, 1/23/11, game 19.7)
4.6 (The Mentalist, 1/18/09, game 14.7)
4.7 (Without a Trace, 1/21/07, game 17.6)
9.2 (Numb3rs preview, 1/23/05, game 17.6)

These ratings are often more about the game than about what the show does in its regular timeslot. The Mentalist was getting bigger raw numbers in 2008-09 than Five-0 in 2010-11, but the game being five points bigger made a difference. Still, being a strong show matters too, as Idol proved last year.

CBS didn't get the dream AFC Championship matchup (Patriots/Broncos, AKA Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning), but Patriots/Ravens is still pretty good; it's a rematch of last year's game and a potential last hurrah for linebacker legend Ray Lewis. I'll guess it does better than the Five-0 lead-in from two years ago, Jets/Steelers, but a bit below Fox's Giants/49ers classic last year. Since Five-0 is not a new show anymore, it may not benefit quite as much from the exposure, but action-oriented Five-0 is still a pretty good fit with a football game. Overall, I'll say it adds up to about what it got two years ago.

Over/Under: 5.55.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

9 comments:

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under, like 4.0

Spot said...

I love Five-0, but under. Still very happy that it is getting the exposure though, I hope it benefits. I hated the way it started the season ratings wise, it was probably the biggest shocker I have ever had since I have started following ratings, probably because it was so much out of the blue and there was nothing that could have us made expect that

Spot said...

I'm gonna say Under too.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under.

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