Wednesday, January 16, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 1/16/13: The Idol Slide'll Be How Big?


Tonight, we get one of the most important data points of the season in TV ratings: the American Idol premiere. It may also be the most important Idol premiere ever, because there's a lot of uncertainty about where this show is headed. Will it hold up well and remain a megahit "Death Star"? Or will it take another nearly one-third step down, the way it did last year? With another 50+ hours on tap, the answer to this question is hugely important for Fox. The Idol slide'll be how big? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 16, 2013.

American Idol Last Season The X Factor In Timeslot This Fall
7.4 (premiere, 1/18/12, -24% year-to-year)
5.33 (Wednesday average, -32%)
4.89 (Thursday average, -31%)
6.4 (finale, 5/23/12, -30%)
3.4 (premiere, 9/12/12, -23% year-to-year)
2.92 (Wednesday average, -23%)
2.79 (Thursday average, -22%)
3.1 (finale, 12/20/12, -18%)

So my prediction for the full season was that Idol would be down 21%, just about in line with what The X Factor did this fall. I don't particularly think any of the new Idol judges are huge gets, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say Idol does a little better than that -21% for the premiere. The X Factor premiered this fall at a few ticks behind the previous season's finale, so I'll say Idol does that as well.

Over/Under: 6.15.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

13 comments:

Spot said...

Under. I could easily see it fall at least a point and a half to a 5.9.

Spot said...

Over.

Though I dislike all kind of reality shows, and nothing would pleased me more than Idol going 90% down.

But ... I don't expect free fall for two seasons in a row, I have kind of a zig-zag theory in mind here. Second, The Voice returns only in March, so Idol has undivided attention of singing competitions audience.

Spot said...

Under. I don't know who the new judges are.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'll go with over. Mariah & Nicki should draw enough interest even if the latter especially seems to divide opinion.

Spot said...

@ig:disqus

"Under. I don't know who the new judges are."



Sorry if this sounds rude, but you don't know who Mariah Carey is?

Spot said...

Per the intel bestowed upon me by last night's Bones, one of them is Nicki Minaj. I think.

Spot said...

Over. But I think it will be close.

Spot said...

Under 5.6 (Thursday results shows will struggle to even get a 3.0)

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over at 6.5. Monstrous yes, but the decline continues.

Spot said...

No, I just missed the announcement, like One guessed.

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