Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Winter 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday


Introductory stuff now at the bottom.

Other Winter 2013 BC/WC: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Fri/Sat/Sun




The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Tuesday 10.8 5 -9% 6 34.7 3 26% 5

Tuesday was one of the weakest nights on broadcast last season, and things have only continued to sour this fall, even with NBC massively growing in the 8:00 hour with The Voice. The other networks have continued to disappoint in a big way: ABC's comedy hour and Private Practice flopped, CBS' Vegas has not even come close to year-ago marginal occupant Unforgettable, and Fox's four-comedy night has been a disaster. The night remains more overall-viewed than Wednesday or Thursday, but the broadcasters are doing worse than on those two nights.



Image Off Their Rockers Slot Average
Premieres January 8 3.75
Best Case: Off Their Rockers got huge repeat ratings last week! It had a brutal timeslot last year and should benefit from little competition this year! Up nearly 20% to a 1.90.

Worst Case:
Maybe it has little competition, but it's certainly gonna have more than the marathon had on New Year's Day. -10% to a 1.46.

Likeliest:
I do think the New Year's Day ratings were a bit of an illusion, because this is the kind of show that tends to repeat extremely well and the competition was comically non-existent. Still, it has a much better slot than last year, so I think it can grow a touch and average about what the repeat marathon did. 1.65.
Slot Orig Avg
4.00
1.62Occupants
The Voice Tue
y2y Label
flop4.13 3.69
True2 Sitch
1.93 -16%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00

Image The Taste (NEW!) Slot Average
1.90
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres January 22 1.91
Best Case: The Taste actually brings something new and interesting to the cooking competition genre, and there isn't all that much competition in this timeslot when The Taste will be airing. 1.91.

Worst Case:
Don't overthink it. It's a bad piece of unscripted filler to get ABC through the winter. 1.15.

Likeliest:
Maybe this show is good, but even if so, being an out-of-the-box success seems pretty unlikely. I think it'd be more of a slow burn in the vein of Shark Tank. I don't know whether it's good, but the odds historically speaking say it isn't. 1.35.
Occupants
Dancing with the Stars Tue Fall
2.03 1.92

Image Body of Proof Slot Average
Premieres February 5 1.80
Best Case: If it can just get through this first month without Dancing with the Stars on the sked, Body of Proof will prove what a good pairing it is with DWTS. A dead even 1.74, and better than that in the back half of the season.

Worst Case:
It's gonna be a struggle to even get above a 1.0 when it has to air after Apartment 23. By the time DWTS rolls around, the ratings will be so low that ABC won't be promoting it much. Down 31% to a 1.20.

Likeliest:
Having to rely on Dancing with the Stars as a lead-in is not a great place to be considering how fast that franchise has been collapsing. It'll be on a little above 1.0 early in the season and barely above 1.5 late, all averaging out to a 1.44, down by 17%.
Slot Orig Avg
1.53
1.74Occupants
Private Practice
y2y Label
-25% marginal1.39 1.41
True2 Sitch
1.58 +10%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 10:00

Image Smash Slot Average
Premieres February 5 2.58
Best Case: Frankly, it would be a big win for NBC if Smash can manage Parenthood numbers, considering that's pretty close to where Smash settled (after The Voice) late last season. So I'll give it a 1.84. That's still -19% from last season!

Worst Case:
The Tuesday 10/9c slot is so bad that freakin' Vegas re-emerges as the front-runner. Sheds a full point to 1.27 and actually loses out to Body of Proof in the second-place race.

Likeliest:
Smash will, like BoP, be waiting for a reality show to come back and help it out. But in this show's case, it's a longer wait, and the reality show isn't even gonna be a direct lead-in. So this will be a pretty tough season. Down about a third to a 1.50.
Slot Orig Avg
2.12
2.27Occupants
Parenthood
y2y Label
marginal1.84 1.74
True2 Sitch
1.74 +30%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 10:00

Image Cult (NEW!) Slot Average
0.37
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres February 19 0.38
Best Case: It's not been scheduled well, but the promos are just wacky enough to attract some attention. 0.55 and a good shot at season two.

Worst Case:
It's not been scheduled well, and that's because it is a freaking dreadful program. Hello, The LA Complex levels. 0.30 and in a struggle to stay on the schedule every week.

Likeliest:
If a show that paired pretty well with Hart of Dixie couldn't make it, I'm not sure why a show that pairs awful with it would make it. Still, it's not gonna be easy to be a worse show than Emily Owens, so I'll guess that it makes it into its general vicinity ratings-wise. 0.39.
Occupants
Emily Owens M.D.
0.37 0.33



CABLE:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Cougar TownTBS1/8, 10/9c1.41-45%
Pretty Little LiarsABC Family1/8, 8/7c1.11-3%
White CollarUSA1/22, 10/9c0.91-26%
JustifiedFX1/8, 10/9c0.90-3%
Snooki & JwowwMTV1/8, 10/9c0.89
The Lying GameABC Family1/8, 9/8c0.59



NETWORK TO WATCH
Let's go with NBC, simply because they at least act like Smash is a big deal. Perhaps the more interesting storyline on this network is how Go On and The New Normal will do without the support of The Voice; we get an answer to that starting tonight.




My extensive Best Case/Worst Case previews from the fall are BACK for the midseason. For the most part, these posts are the same as in the fall. You can refer to the Intro post from last summer to explain most of what you'll see above.

The main difference is that the timeslot info in "The Basics" and in the timeslot portion of each show card now cover the fall 2012 numbers, from September 24 through December 23. (In the Fall Best Case/Worst Case, they covered all of the 2011-12 regular season.) So the slot averages are all across that three-month fall span, and the "Occupants" are things the network aired in the slot this fall.

To avoid covering stuff that's too far down the road, I'm just hitting the January and February premieres here. I tried to figure out how to break these up with a similar number of shows in each post but couldn't really crack it. So I'm just doing one post for each day of the week until Friday, which will cover Friday/Saturday/Sunday.

4 comments:

Spot said...

What a depressing day for television ratings is and will continue to be...


Agree with Off their Rockers, don't see the taste doing that well (your worst scenario is he one i would bet here). As for scripted:
- i agree that body of proof will have a very tough early run... and that might be more problematic this year because they are replacing half of the cast with new guys, so if people don't tune in early, they might be discouraged to do so later as they will have a harder time figuring out what is going on, even if it is a procedural. Still, i will go with a 1.5 for the most likely case, obviously better when dancing comes back.
- i agree 100% about smash
- probably even your likeliest scenario is too good for cult. i want to like that show but that schedule is just atrocious (even if i like hart of dixie, the pairing is just wrong).... And it gets on my nerves because beauty and the beast is toast at this point, so they are just waiting a perfectly compatible tvd lead-in on it... Stupid cw. 0.35 and done

Spot said...

This is a night where almost every show is being asked to "self-start" as either the lead-off program (Off Their Rockers, The Taste) or as an island adrift because it's lead-ins aren't going to be much help (Cult, Body of Proof, Smash). Tuesday comparisons this Winter on both a year-to-year basis as well as this Fall are going to be dreadful.


With the networks so collectively weak, this is the night where I would have put The Carrie Diaries at 8 PM. Cult would have it just as bad, but at least The CW could have marketed it as a brand new midseason night.

Spot said...

Smash is just not going to do well. The lead in awful and is much lower than the one it had last year. I just don't see this going well. My guess is low 1.0's before The Voice returns to its 8pm timeslot in March.

Spot said...

I think there is a chance NBC moves The Voice to 9pm to save Smash unless they have something they want to boost (Hannibal?) to put at 9pm, seeing as Go On and New Normal will be practically done by the time the voice gets back

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