Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Winter 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday

Introductory stuff now at the bottom.

Other Winter 2013 BC/WC: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Fri/Sat/Sun

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Wednesday 9.4 3 -6% 5 33.4 4 28% 2

Wednesday has not been as big a problem for broadcast as Tuesday, but nothing has really emerged as a clear success story. (Stay tuned on Chicago Fire, though.) The 8:00 hour is down 8% with The Neighbors well below last year's Suburgatory, NBC's Animal Practice/Whitney well below last year's Up All Night and Survivor and The X Factor each down double digits. (It's that rare slot where the CW actually made a meaningful difference thanks to its breakout hit Arrow.) 9:00 is healthier mostly because Harry's Law is gone, but 10:00 is down 10% with Nashville dropping well below last year's Revenge.

Image American Idol Slot Average
Premieres January 16 2.69
Best Case: Last season was a bit of an "overreaction" by the viewers. Things will straighten out somewhat this year, and the new judges work pretty well. Down just 8% to a 4.90, and it's miraculously the #1 (EDIT: broadcast-only) entertainment show yet again after The Big Bang Theory drops big late in the season.

Worst Case:
The new judges don't work, and what was once the gold standard in competition reality is now an X Factor-esque trainwrecky mess. Another -32% to 3.60 and squarely below The Voice.

I've overestimated the appeal of what I thought were huge names in judging, and I'm pretty sure Idol's new ones aren't huge names in judging. So the drops will continue. I kinda doubt it'll be as steep as last season, but it won't be pretty. I'll say a decline about as big as The X Factor's, -21% to a 4.20.
Slot Orig Avg
The X Factor Wed
y2y Label
-32% megahit2.97 2.92
True2 Sitch
5.33 +0%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00

Image Survivor Slot Average
Premieres February 13 2.55
Best Case:The last Fans vs. Favorites season (fall 2007) began to slow the show's decline during one of its tougher year-to-year stretches. This one will as well! Down just 5% to a 2.69.

Worst Case:
This group of so-called "favorites" is derived mostly from the last few years, which have generally been bad seasons. Idol holds up well this year. A typical -15% to 2.41.

As someone who just restarted Survivor watching about two years ago, I'm actually happy to be able to recognize most of the returning favorites, and it seems like a decent lineup. Like the last FvF season, the year-to-year trend will slightly improve vs. its -15%ish norm of late. -10% to a 2.55.
Slot Orig Avg
Survivor Fall
y2y Label
-14% solid2.81 2.72
True2 Sitch
3.13 -10%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
The AmericansFX1/30, 10/9cNEW!
WorkaholicsComedy1/16, 10/9c0.89-21%
Necessary RoughnessUSA1/23, 10/9c0.71-42%
SouthlandTNT2/13, 10/9c0.63-6%
Hot in ClevelandTV Landongoing0.30

Happily DivorcedTV Landongoing0.26

Fox. Idol. The end.

My extensive Best Case/Worst Case previews from the fall are BACK for the midseason. For the most part, these posts are the same as in the fall. You can refer to the Intro post from last summer to explain most of what you'll see below.

The main difference is that the timeslot info in "The Basics" and in the timeslot portion of each show card now cover the fall 2012 numbers, from September 24 through December 23. (In the Fall Best Case/Worst Case, they covered all of the 2011-12 regular season.) So the slot averages are all across that three-month fall span, and the "Occupants" are things the network aired in the slot this fall.

To avoid covering stuff that's too far down the road, I'm just hitting the January and February premieres here. I tried to figure out how to break these up with a similar number of shows in each post but couldn't really crack it. So I'm just doing one post for each day of the week until Friday, which will cover Friday/Saturday/Sunday.


Spot said...

Meh, nothing for me to comment here, I usually don't venture outside of scripted shows and there are none premiering on this night, except for the late premieres of how to live with your parents and family tools

Spot said...

Couldn't Walking Dead be the #1 entertainment show? I know it's cable, but you didn't specify broadcast.

Spot said...

Yeah, meant broadcast only. Thanks.

Spot said...

Idol's hitting a double whammy: airing after a successful Fall season of The Voice and more high-profile deck arranging to hide the show's age and familiarity. Fatigue is going to be the biggest obstacle this year. It's like Grey's Anatomy: compared to its history this season's ratings will be disappointing, but because it's such a standout it has the room to fall and still be a hit in the relative landscape.

I still think Fox should cut the show's length to 90 minutes and put a good sitcom at 9:30, though.

Spot said...

I'd go further than that and say go down to an hour and put on two sitcoms or a procedural. Pfft. I hope they enjoyed their Thursday and Friday afternoons the last couple years. Gloating while their drama and comedy slates got thinner and thinner. Well, they're paying for it now. They just renewed an 8-year-old show averaging just above 2.0. They'll likely renew a four-year-old show averaging less than 2.5. And if they want to keep the two-hour comedy block and have a chance at Syndie's money, they'll have to renew a three-year-old show averaging just over 1.5.

Spot said...

Cutting Idol down to 90 minutes is at least practical this season since they have three options: soon-to-announced-burnoff The Goodwin Games, The Mindy Project, or Ben & Kate. Shuffling any of the remaining dramas to Wednesday is problematic for different reasons:

Moving Bones means that The Following would be adrift on Mondays.
Moving The Following means that it would face Criminal Minds, which is tonally the most similar show on broadcast TV. And we've seen what can happen to Fox shows (Glee) that run against a similarly-skewed show (Grey's Anatomy).
Moving Touch offers the least downside since it's coming from Friday but if it fell apart against PoI and Grey's last season, then how would it fair against Minds and Modern Family?

Only ordering two new dramas for this season was real hubris on Fox's part.

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