Thursday, January 24, 2013

The Question, Thursday 1/24/13: How Much Glee Will a Better Lead-in Bring?


The last time American Idol and Glee were regularly paired together was the spring of 2010, when Glee was a promising new show launched to superstardom by the pairing. Fox planned on pairing them again in the second half of Glee's second season, but the show did so well on its own that it ultimately wasn't needed. Tonight, they reunite, with Glee in a very different place: fading fast. Now, the Idol boost is more about stopping the bleeding than creating a big hit. How much Glee will a better lead-in bring? That's The Question for Thursday, January 24, 2013.

American Idol This Season Glee in Recent Weeks
6.0 (Wednesday 1/16/13)
5.4 (Thursday 1/17/13)
5.4 (Wednesday 1/23/13, -10% vs.last wk)
2.2 (Thursday 11/29/12, 2.9 8:30 X Factor)
2.2 (Thursday 12/6/12, 2.7 X)
2.0 (Thursday 12/13/12, 2.6 X)

Assuming Glee's lead-in is about three points bigger than for its last episode, the True2 formula would suggest that Glee should go up by half a point to a 2.5. I'm leaning slightly above that since CBS is in repeats and maybe the 2.0 was a bit of an outlier (as the previous two weeks got 2.2).

Over/Under: 2.55.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

10 comments:

Spot said...

Over. A post-Idol episode of The Finder did a 2.8 on 1/26/12.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

The last Glee finale got a 2.9 out of Idol's 4.4 performance finale. Idol will be higher but Glee is in even worse shape at the moment, on a different day..I'll go under.

Spot said...

Yeah, it averaged a 4.4 and the half hours were 3.9 -> 4.8.

Spot said...

I'm taking the over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.


Related note: I knew there'd be a Glee-related Question for today, but I almost thought it'd be about the spread between it and Grey's Anatomy since Glee's getting a better lead-in for the back half of the season.

Spot said...

I'm gonna go with Over.

Spot said...

Over!

Spot said...

Just to clarify this point, and I probably should've elaborated above, I was referring to just the 8:30 half-hour. I assumed Idol would drop to a 5.0 with a 4.5ish at 8:00 and a 5.5ish at 8:30.

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