Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Question, Thursday 1/31/13: Will NBC Do Even More Harm to Thursday?


Nothing invites historical ratings comparisons and "death of TV" memes quite like NBC Thursday. And tonight, NBC gets back into the medical drama business in the timeslot occupied for a decade and a half by ER. Since ER left Thursday 10/9c, NBC's tried really hard ("next great cop shows" like Southland and Prime Suspect), tried not at all (The Jay Leno Show, Rock Center) and tried just about everything else, including a third comedy hour. Nothing has stuck, and I don't see much reason to believe critically-reviled Do No Harm will buck the trend. Will NBC do even more harm to Thursday? That's The Question for Thursday, January 31, 2013.

The Office Lead-in In Recent Weeks Recent NBC Drama Premieres
2.2 (Thursday 1/10/13)
2.1 (Thursday 1/17/13)
2.0 (Thursday 1/24/13)
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 The Voice)
1.9 (Chicago Fire, 10/10/12, 1.9 SVU)
2.0 (Deception, 1/7/13, 2.6 Biggest Loser)

Back when we thought 1600 Penn would be the Do No Harm lead-in on premiere night, I felt confident Do No Harm was headed for sub-The Mob Doctor premiere numbers. It could still happen. But replacing Penn with a second original The Office should give the show a reasonable lead-in, and that should be worth a little bit of a boost. Dramas usually haven't premiered that well out of the comedy block, and the promos and reception for this show have been pretty laughable. Starting as well as last year's Awake would be a win, and I'm not seeing a win.

Over/Under: 1.55.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

16 comments:

Spot said...

Forgot this was starting tonight, thought there might have been a question about Idol vs. TBBT. But I'm going under, looks awful and I really don't have a good feeling about it.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

under, 1.5

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

How dare you insinuate that this is reviled by the critics, when the light on Metacritic is still yellow. YELLOOOWWW!!!!


That said, this kinda looks like an easy under. The ads did a progressively better job of unselling me on the show.

Spot said...

Under. 1.2 demo...if its lucky.

Spot said...

Over. 1600 Penn did 1.6 in its first post-The Office episode three weeks ago.

Spot said...

If either Elementary or Scandal were a rerun tonight, Do No Harm would have an easier time getting past this line. But being the first night of sweeps, it gets no such luxury. Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

(goddamned Metacritic, go and make a liar out of me w/ your styupid 38...)

(bonus points if anyone gets the reference I made w/ that "misspelled" word above...)

Spot said...

Under: 1.4

Spot said...

Under at 1.3.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over, if Office goes to a 1.8 at 9:30, 1.7 -> 1.6 for Do No Harm. I don't see it having that much crossover with Scandal and Elementary. Awake premiered with a 2.0 and a worse lead-in.

Spot said...

It was red when I first checked it! I guess 40 is the cutline.


But I'd have been willing to say the critics were mixed/average if it'd have gotten more people to go over...!

Spot said...

And it was yellow when I first went. Then two more critics went to the red, so to speak.

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