Monday, January 7, 2013

The Question, Monday 1/7/13: Is NBC's Midseason Drama Deceptively Strong?

Tonight NBC dives into the heart of its three months of Voice-lessness with the regular timeslot premiere of The Biggest Loser and, at 10/9c, new drama Deception. It's a little bit Revenge, a little bit Dirty Sexy Money, and NBC hopes its likely female skew will match up well with The Biggest Loser. Reviews thus far are merely OK, and I don't think anyone really expects a big out-of-the-box smash. Is NBC's midseason drama deceptively strong? That's The Question for Monday, January 7, 2013.

The Biggest Loser (Lead-in) Last Night Recent NBC Drama Premieres
2.9 (average 9-11pm)
3.0 (10:30 half-hour)
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 The Voice)
1.9 (Chicago Fire, 10/10/12, 1.9 SVU)

I had this premiering a little below 2.0, but I'm adjusting it up a bit based on how wildly The Biggest Loser exceeded my expectations. Beyond the question of how much interest there is in this show in a vacuum, it's also worth mentioning that it's facing college football's BCS National Championship. While the shows will skew pretty differently, the football game is gonna cast a wide net; double-digit demos are likely. That competition and typical post-premiere drop tendencies mean the lead-in The Biggest Loser will probably drop at least somewhat from what it got last night.

Over/Under: 2.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.


Spot said...

really tricky... under, a 2.0

Spot said...

Gonna be optimistic again and say this goes over, though by nowhere near as much as TBL.

Spot said...

The Alabama / Notre Dame game will be huge. It should even cut into typical primetime watchers. I will give Deception a 2.0. UNDER

Much like you yesterday, I think that I will miss by a lot, but I am not sure which way.

Spot said...

Over. People who watch NBC don't seem to mind knock-offs.

Spot said...

The Biggest Loser will probably take some knocks from the BCS game and The Bachelor, so I don't think Deception will have a 3.0 lead-in. And I feel like NBC is putting more effort into Do No Harm than this. Under.

Spot said...


Spot said...

After the score of the game (42-14 Alabama), I am much less confident, but I am not changing my pick. Maybe there should be a rule to prevent pick changes when sports are indirectly part of the question.

Spot said...


Spot said...

Over. Aggressive promotion, slightly bland but not self-evidently terrible promos, and it should have a decent lead-in from TBL. Last season, Awake premiered to 2.0 in March with a smaller and less compatible lead-in, this should be able to beat it.

That said, I doubt it will hit 2.0 again.

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