Thursday, January 3, 2013

Fox True Power Rankings, January 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1Family Guy2.722.7339
2American Dad!2.122.1337
3New Girl2.032.08411
4The Simpsons1.992.8038

OK, so I don't actually think Dad! is a stronger show than The Simpsons. This is mostly because of some recent Sunday chaos. Dad! got a big boost from its new episode on December 23rd (when it held pretty steady due to NFL overrun support, but overall viewing was extremely low), while The Simpsons got knocked down by its terrible result on the Sunday that was in part mucked up by the presidential address from Newtown. By the next one of these, The Simpsons will probably reclaim the #2 spot among Fox comedies. The big takeaway is that it does look like American Dad! has separated a bit from the other bottom-of-the-hour animations on Fox.

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Two Safes and a Bubble
5Raising Hope1.611.60410
6The Cleveland Show1.541.5026
7Bob's Burgers1.511.8039

Unless Fox decides they're almost completely bailing on live action comedy, they're probably bringing back Raising Hope. Bob's Burgers is already renewed. Since those are safe, it might follow that The Cleveland Show should be safe... yet it doesn't seem to be. It has no lead-in and airs against the tail end of the CBS late afternoon NFL games, and its ratings aren't that much worse than the other two shows, but it could wind up a casualty.

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Tuesday Blues
8The Mindy Project1.331.4339
9Ben and Kate1.181.18410

Almost every time these two shows have aired on the same night, they have virtually identical True2 scores. In fact, B&K is often ever so slightly ahead. Yet somehow the averages always show Mindy with a reasonable lead. It seems B&K does awful whenever it airs without Mindy and Mindy does decently whenever B&K doesn't air. Maybe they will air on the same night enough in the winter that they'll get evened out.

As I've said a million times, I believe the ratings would pretty much flip if the timeslots flipped. And while I say that hoping it will be a good thing for Ben and Kate, it's really mostly just a bad thing for Mindy. Bringing either of these shows back seems highly iffy, even on a network without much depth.

Fox DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Not Dunzo

Fox DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
4The Mob Doctor0.920.9339

The drama mess on Fox has been re-hashed enough on this blog. From where we sit right now, it's hard to imagine Glee or Bones not continuing. The Following is shaping up as a pretty high-stakes show for Fox as a network.

Fox UnscriptedTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
1The X Factor Thu2.782.70513
2The X Factor Wed2.712.66515
3Kitchen Nightmares1.411.1526

Kitchen Nightmares started the season in horrific fashion and has quietly worked its way upward since. With Fox having a lot of uncertainty on Friday over the long term, I'd guess Nightmares will continue to be a part of it.


Spot said...

My ranks (I take into account syndication proximity, number of episodes, new show vs. old show, etc):


1. Raising Hope: 1.57
2. The New Girl: 1.14

3. The Mindy Project: 0.69
4. Ben and Kate: 0.60

Yeah, as shocking as it is to have Raising Hope so much higher than new girl, that is what syndication does. Both will be renewed regardless, so it is a theoretical discussion only. As for the other two, I agree that both are toast but that ben and kate is not that much worse than the mindy project.

1. Glee: 1.46
2. Bones: 1.24

3. Fringe: 0.81

4. The Mob Doctor: 0.49

Agree with everything.

Spot said...

I can see The Cleveland Show ending up as Seth McFarland's Futurama: poor timeslot, erratic scheduling, lack of network support especially compared with the moneymaking cartoon. All this leads to being canceled.

I agree that Raising Hope's main argument for being renewed is Fox's desire to have live-action comedy. I almost think Fox should cut both B&K and Mindy for 2013-14 (or at most save one for midseason), shift Hope & New Girl to the 8PM hour, and get another drama onto Tuesdays. Bones & Glee are turning into Fox's SVU: increasingly expensive shows that see another season in part because there's nothing else that's doing better.

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