ABC True Power Rankings, January 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Elite
1	Modern Family	4.23	4.58	4	10
2	The Middle	2.29	2.33	3	9

The Middle being anything less than "Certain Renewal" is laughable. That's all I got.

		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Actual Middle
3	Suburgatory	1.93	2.37	3	7
4	Malibu Country	1.74	1.47	3	7
5	The Neighbors	1.73	1.88	4	10
6	Last Man Standing	1.64	1.53	3	7

These are the two big narratives for ABC's bottom-of-the-hour Wednesday sitcoms: 1) Suburgatory has been a huge disappointment at 9:30 after Modern Family! 2) Critically-reviled The Neighbors has not been as big a flop as most people expected!

I actually don't disagree with either of those. But just because the gap is smaller than expected doesn't mean there isn't a gap. Disappointing Suburgatory still looks to have a reasonable lead on overachieving The Neighbors almost every time they both air on the same night, even after factoring in the timeslot differences. This was on display to some degree on December 5 when Suburgatory had a Modern Family repeat lead-in and a little more competition and still beat The Neighbors by 0.3 points.

Though it looks like ABC will again have to look elsewhere to best utilize the Modern Family lead-in, Suburgatory still has a future somewhere. There will be a more direct comparison between the two when Suburgs returns to the 8:30 slot in April. If Suburgatory outrates The Neighbors' 8:30 numbers, perhaps it stays at 8:30 permanently.

		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Terrible Tuesday
7	Happy Endings	1.33	1.27	3	7
8	Apartment 23	1.30	1.10	3	7

In a not-so-shocking development, Happy Endings and Apartment 23 have had a rough go on Tuesday. There's a conventional wisdom that says Happy Endings has a much better shot at renewal than Apartment 23 because of its raw numbers advantage, its syndication proximity advantage and the fact that it's got the always renewal-friendly Sony studio on its side. I agree with all of that, although I would point out that I think the gap between the two in terms of ratings strength is actually pretty negligible. Were the two shows flipped, with Apt 23 airing right after Dancing with the Stars, the numbers would probably also (just about) flip.

Ultimately, though, neither one looks to be worth keeping around. Perhaps their random Sunday 10/9c airings will show us that huge chunks of their audiences were watching New Girl instead, but I can't say I expect much. Overall, I pity the poor show that would be paired with Happy Endings if it gets re-upped.

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		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Fab Five
1	Grey's Anatomy	3.30	3.00	3	9
2	Scandal	2.36	2.37	3	9
3	Once Upon a Time	2.30	2.97	3	9
4	Castle	2.06	1.87	3	9
5	Revenge	1.77	2.37	3	9

I feel I should note as always that Once and Revenge have extremely high Sitch scores due to the huge viewing totals on Sunday. Another factor working against them on this occasion is that they aired all of their episodes before True2's "fall hype" adjustment kicked in, whereas Grey's and Scandal got that in their favor for two of their three counted episodes. The point is that both Once and Revenge are a lot safer than their scores suggest, and hopefully their scores will even out a bit once the fall hype adjustment is fully in play and the NFL stops mucking up Sundays.

Scandal is probably not quite as safe as it looks here, simply because there's some question about whether it's going to keep getting mid-2's and beating Elementary on a sustained basis. But there's no doubt it finished 2012 as well as almost any show on TV.

		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Lone Bubbler
6	Nashville	1.65	1.83	3	8

This show is the only big question mark on the ABC drama sked right now. And there's a good chance it could stay that way all the way through May. It would take Zero Hour and/or Red Widow significantly outperforming their fall counterparts or Body of Proof somehow going about even year-to-year for Nashville to get any company. Not feeling too good about either of those prospects. But if all those midseason dramas fail, I would think ABC would strongly lean toward bringing this one back.

		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Dunzo
7	Private Practice	1.39	1.15	4	10
8	Last Resort	1.18	1.10	4	10
9	666 Park Ave	1.07	1.23	3	9

When ABC cancelled Last Resort and 666 Park Ave simultaneously, it was frustrating because it looked like there would be no way to confirm my belief that Last Resort was actually the stronger show. But things have changed since then, with 666 bumped to summer in favor of comedies and Last Resort (for now) still slated to run out the string. Last Resort wins! VINDICATION, BABY!

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ABC Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	Dancing with the Stars Tue Fall	2.07	2.30	3	9
2	Shark Tank	2.06	2.03	4	11
3	Dancing with the Stars Mon Fall	1.97	2.33	4	10
4	20/20	1.69	1.50	6	16
5	Primetime: What Would You Do?	1.55	1.45	2	5
6	America's Funniest Home Videos	1.34	1.55	4	10
7	Extreme Makeover: Home Edition	1.32	1.13	3	8

The Bachelor will join this list shortly. Could it actually outrate Dancing with the Stars this year? The gap wasn't that wide last year, and this year Bachelor doesn't face The Voice.