Monday, January 21, 2013

First Two Weeks, Deception

NBC's drama Deception got off to a not-good, not-awful start, hitting a 2.0 demo in its series premiere on January 7. Its The Biggest Loser lead-in averaged a 2.4 demo, including a 2.6 in the 9:30 hour. The show had to face an original Castle on broadcast and the high-rated BCS National Championship on ESPN. (It averaged a 9.2 overall, but if this viewership chart across the telecast is to believed, it was likely lower than that by the time Deception got going in the Eastern/Central time zones.)

Though there were no big sporting events up against Deception's second week, it did have to face another original Castle and the return of Hawaii Five-0. Deception took a 20% dip in week two, which is about the median drop among new shows this season. That left it at a 1.6. And The Biggest Loser averaged the same 2.4 as last week.

It's worth noting that one of my sure misses from the fall will be Chicago Fire, which I predicted would be cancelled after a week one (1.9) and a week two (1.5) that were each a tick below Deception's current track. By that standard, you might argue I should defer this and see what happens. Still, I'm pretty sure Chicago Fire was an exceptional case in which the first two weeks were actually the weakest data points the show has had yet, in terms of lining it up against a typical new show. (Week two actually remains a True2 series low.) And Deception's lead-in is a lot bigger. So it's not exactly completely over, but I think it'd take another round of atypical behavior beyond week two to save Deception. Most likely it settles a few more ticks lower than the 1.6 and gets a Cancel.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.

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