Monday, January 7, 2013

Winter 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday

My extensive Best Case/Worst Case previews from the fall are BACK for the midseason. For the most part, these posts are the same as in the fall. You can refer to the Intro post from last summer to explain most of what you'll see below.

The main difference is that the timeslot info in "The Basics" and in the timeslot portion of each show card now cover the fall 2012 numbers, from September 24 through December 23. (In the Fall Best Case/Worst Case, they covered all of the 2011-12 regular season.) So the slot averages are all across that three-month fall span, and the "Occupants" are things the network aired in the slot this fall.

To avoid covering stuff that's too far down the road, I'm just hitting the January and February premieres here. I tried to figure out how to break these up with a similar number of shows in each post but couldn't really crack it. So I'm just doing one post for each day of the week until Friday, which will cover Friday/Saturday/Sunday.

Other Winter 2013 BC/WC: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Fri/Sat/Sun

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Monday 9.6 2 -5% 4 36.7 2 26% 4

Monday's broadcast numbers have been a clash of inflationary and deflationary events. Though The Voice and Revolution have lifted NBC by triple digits, that's been more than cancelled out by significant declines across the board on all the other networks, resulting in a fairly typical 5% average decline. The decline is biggest in the 9:00 half-hour (-13%), where hyper-inflated Two and a Half Men departed in favor of an often underwhelming 2 Broke Girls. Broadcast has had something of a revolution (get it?!) in the 10:00 hour: +12% at 10:00 and +9% at 10:30.

Though the bc/TPUT number suggests Monday is not all that competitive, it doesn't include ESPN's Monday Night Football. With ESPN and NBC both much weaker this winter, the landscape should become more manageable for the other networks.

Image The Biggest Loser Slot Average
Premieres January 6 4.23
Best Case: Getting trimmed back to one regular season cycle a year worked wonders for The Bachelor! Jillian's back! New life, up 10% to a 2.40.

Worst Case:
Jillian's departure didn't seem to make a huge difference; the show was plummeting before she left and kept plummeting. So why would her return help? Down 25% more to 1.64 and dunzo.

I like the idea of using this show in a Bachelor-type role, but the resuscitation of The Bachelor was a truly freak occurrence. This show was trending down fast. Jillian and better scheduling will help a bit, but not a ton. Down 13% to a 1.90, but likely to eke out one more season in this kind of role.
Slot Orig Avg
The Voice Mon
y2y Label
-23% marginal4.38 3.78
True2 Sitch
2.21 -1%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:00

Image Deception (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres January 7 2.83
Best Case: Hey, a lot of people thought Revenge had no chance! The Biggest Loser does well and Deception holds onto pretty much all of it, making for another sleeper success in the increasingly stocked NBC drama stable. 2.00.

Worst Case:
It's filler between "cycles" of Revolution, and it's not gonna do any better than filler type ratings. 1.10, way below its TBL lead-in, but probably runs all of the episodes anyway.

Somewhat to my surprise, I actually rather liked this pilot, so I'm gonna be somewhat optimistic here for really no reason other than that. I'll say it averages a 1.65, retains about 85% of TBL and has a decent shot at another go-round.
3.09 2.65

Image The Bachelor Slot Average
Premieres January 7 1.96
Best Case: Remember how The Bachelorette was nearly even year-to-year last summer? This franchise is finding new life yet again! Even at 2.57.

Worst Case:
People are bailing on ABC reality, and similar-skewing The Biggest Loser will hurt the opening weeks. Down another 21% to 2.03.

Admittedly I'm not up to speed on my Bachelor/ette gossip, so I am not quite sure what to make of The Bachelorette's solid season last summer. It feels kinda unsustainable. But there's also a lot less competition this winter than last. That should help the show to swing upward in its second and third month, which didn't happen last year because of The Voice. It loses 12% to a 2.26 and ties the fall DWTS.
Slot Orig Avg
Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y Label
-21% solid2.26 1.99
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
True2 Sitch
2.47 +4%1.00 1.02
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:00

Image The Carrie Diaries (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres January 14 0.45
Best Case: Just when we thought the CW was out of the teen soap game, suddenly they somehow figure out how to do one, and they're pulled right back in. The show actually somehow pulls in a chunk of the Sex and the City audience. 0.80 and an anchor show for a new generation of bad teen soaps.

Worst Case:
This genre is so over on the CW. An Emily Owens-esque 0.37.

The reviews have been surprisingly positive, but as said above, it'll be tough to get back in the teen soap game, especially against some similar-skewing competition (Switched at Birth and The Bachelor). I'm giving it a 0.52 average, barely better than 90210 in the fall. But the way the CW bubble's shaping up, that could very well get it renewed.
0.49 0.46

Image The Following (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres January 21 0.98
Best Case: The Following is truly the event TV Fox is hoping for. While its premiere numbers are limited somewhat by the Bones lead-in, it takes a cable-esque trajectory; by the second half of its run it actually builds to above the series premiere number, boding very well for season two. 2.75.

Worst Case:
It's hard to imagine that it'll do as poorly as The Mob Doctor, but the drama audience has pretty much given up on Fox. Premieres poorly, and many people opt out of this and into the CBS comedies early on. 1.30.

I talked pre-season about how big a deal Arrow was for the CW. The Following feels like it has nearly that same level of significance. It's another of those "If not now, when?" situations. And, like with Arrow, it sounds like this one's pretty good. I don't see quite as clear a hook, so it will not premiere as well as Arrow did (by its net's standards), but it has little crossover competition, and by season's end there will appear to be some real promise. Builds on Bones, averages 2.30 and cruises to renewal.
The Mob Doctor
1.03 1.01

Image Rules of Engagement Slot Average
Premieres February 4 2.32
Best Case: Last year Rules stepped in and did about 40% better than How to Be a Gentleman before seeing its average wrecked by a long hiatus. No such hiatus this time. Even at 2.91, about 40% better than Partners.

Worst Case:
2.7 was the show's most typical number last spring after BBT, and it's not gonna have a lead-in anywhere near BBT's size this year. 20%+ drops are the norm on CBS Monday. Down 24% to a 2.20, only a bit better than Partners.

Unless CBS goes to four comedy hours, which I still consider unlikely, this'll probably finally be the year CBS feels comfortable doing away with Rules. It'll do clearly better than Partners but noticeably worse than Big Bang Theory repeats at 8:30. 2.50.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
+1% solid2.07 1.69
True2 Sitch
2.61 +12%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 8:30


ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
WWE Raw (2012-13 avg)USAongoing1.36
DallasTNT1/28, 9/8c1.11
Switched at BirthABC Family1/7, 8/7c0.70-9%
Being HumanSyfy1/14, 9/8c0.66+11%
BunheadsABC Family1/7, 9/8c0.54
Lost GirlSyfy1/14, 9/8c0.42
Monday MorningsTNT2/4, 10/9cNEW!

This is tough, because I actually find this a pretty interesting night for every network this winter, and most of what I consider the promising winter shows are on this night. But I'm taking Fox, simply because The Following has the highest stakes of the Monday premieres.


Spot said...

Yay, glad to have this back. I think I agree with you on everything. I don't go into unscripted ratings usually, but i think the biggest looser will do nicely and will beat the bachelor, but that it will also look good when compared to how bad dwts did this fall. As for deception, i hate to say it, because i adored the pilot, but i expect something closer to your bad scenario than to your likely scenario. It can break a 2.0 tonight but that will be a series high and it will fall from then onwards imo... but hope to be wrong. Spot on for tcd... i don't think it will suceed and i think the cw has a big incentive to pick just two out of hart of dixie, 90210 and the carrie diaries for next season to reduce these nights to 1, so i think carrie diaries won't be back unless it does really good. It wil probably have a good premiere though. Don't know what to expect with the following. I agree with you that it is a lot make it or break it, but i just don't know what to expect... I can see your optimistic prediction being right just as well as can see the optimistic one. I agree with rules, nothing to add there

Spot said...

Minus CBS, I also agree that every network has an important midseason show on the night. Both NBC and ABC can't afford for their reality shows to go bust (and NBC must be beyond happy about TBL's strong Sunday premiere). Fox needs The Following to work so they don't bat .000 in their self-infected drama predicament. But I think The CW has more riding on The Carrie Diaries than you think. It's another high-profile property based on a preexisting idea, similar to Arrow. And it's getting what is proving to be a valuable position on that network: the 8 PM lead-out from affiliates' programming.

Spot said...

I reckon it will take a minor mircle for the following not to be renewed, fox probably lost millions of dollars keeping the mob doctor around, partly because they had no back-ups, but a large part for appearances I reckon they would want to keep the following around even if it bombs, because they have a lot invested in it, (see: touch) on that note, I think the following is going to be one of the very few mid-season success, and with the exception of the carrie diaries, probably the only one renewed for next season

Spot said...

I love the Best Case/Worst Case stories.

It'll be interesting to see how The Carrie Diaries does this season. If it can do above a 1.0 all season (something I don't see happening) the CW may finally dump Supernatural, America's Next Top Model, or even Nikita. Small steps, but lets hope something gets rolling for them (similar to Arrow).

I'm hoping for more solid ratings for Rules of Engagement. I love the show, but I'm going to agree with you and say this is the final season. If it came back though, how could anyone be surprised?

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