Monday, February 4, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Following


WEEK ONE
Kevin Bacon's The Following continued in the recent Fox Monday tradition of premiering in the low 3's (The Mob Doctor excepted). It began with a 3.2 demo, making it the second-strongest drama premiere of the season to date. Considering it faced pretty much the "normal" winter competition (CBS original comedies, The Bachelor, The Biggest Loser) and it did so largely as a self-starter (lead-in Bones had a 2.3), that was a pretty solid start.

WEEK TWO
Week one was solid, but week two was exceptional. The Following became the first scripted newbie this season to uptick in week two, hitting a 3.3. It had a bit more help from Bones (up to 2.6) and from lesser competition (CBS comedies went into repeats), but this is still a hard feat to pull off unless the show is very well received.

PROGNOSIS
Last year I guessed renewal for Alcatraz, which started at 3.3 and dropped to 3.0 in a similar competitive situation. To my credit, I did have more reservations about it than I probably normally would with a 3.3 -> 3.0 start, because of the lack of competish. I can't completely rule out another Alcatraz situation. But this week two was clearly a lot more favorable than the Alcatraz week two, so I'm less reserved this time around. When a show drops a few ticks against lessened competition, you can make the argument that it'd have dropped much more in a normal spot. Actually growing is a different story. And Fox is even more drama-starved than a year ago, hard as that is to believe. Renew.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.

2 comments:

Spot said...

@Spot
Do you know of any past occasions, where a freshman scripted show grew in week 2.

Spot said...

A few recent examples: GCB, The Finder (though this one was just b/c of Idol lead-in), The Mentalist, The Good Wife.

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