Thursday, February 7, 2013

The Question, Thursday 2/7/13: How Big is the Community of Viewers?


It's often said that the best way to improve your renewal odds on NBC is to stay off the air, just sit in the clubhouse and watch the carnage pile up on other fronts. It's certainly worked for Community this season; a fall of "peacocking comedy" produced only one show with any real separation (Parks and Recreation) and a total morass of confusing low-ratedness. But now Community can't just point and laugh at the others anymore. It's back into the fray starting tonight. Creator Dan Harmon is out, but the brutal timeslot remains. How big is the Community of viewers? That's The Question for Monday, February 4, 2013.

Community Last Season Previous 8:00 Occupant 30 Rock
1.7/1.54/1.3 (premiere/average finale) 1.4/1.37/1.9 (premiere/average/finale) 
1.8/1.54/1.4 (last season) 

The funny thing about this comparison is that Community and 30 Rock were virtually the same show ratings-wise in 2011-12. So 30 Rock's 1.4 premiere in the fall should be a good starting point for this prediction. The fanbase is so engaged on Community that new showrunners may actually bring some additional interest, but tougher competition (American Idol) and a weaker NBC than when 30 Rock premiered in October likely cancel that out, and maybe more than cancel it out.

Over/Under: 1.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

14 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over. Narrowly.

Its brutal timeslot is probably the toughest on television, but it's nothing new. Sitting next to Parks should help it a little, especially compared with 30 Rock which was trapped next to Up All Night in fall.

That said, I think the new showrunners (and subsequent weak reviews) will hurt rather than help the show. If Harmon was still around then Community would benefit from fan enthusiasm and effusive critical press, much as it did at mid-season last year. Instead, the more muted reaction has starved the show of the publicity that has been its life-blood.

Spot said...

Over. A 1.4

Spot said...

Over. I'm going to invoke the "Glee rule" and say that next week disappoints but week one is solid.

Spot said...

Over, though I debated Under for a long time.

Spot said...

Community is a tough cookie to figure out. Its ratings are always horrible, but it seems to come out of the gate strong (well, for NBC standards).

I'm going to go Over on this one. 1.4.

Spot said...

Ugh. I guess I'll take the over on the hope that the fanbase is still hungry for the show and will ignore the middling reviews and decide to watch for themselves. 1.7 is my guess.

Spot said...

Under. N.B.Flee

Spot said...

I'm split. On one hand, absence helped Community's ratings grow fonder last season as it hit its season high coming back from hiatus. And Community has stayed in the news. Unfortunately, it's been more for off-screen problems than raves about the quality of the show. Plus this is an 8 month hiatus versus a 3 month one with not even reruns to remind people that the show is still on.

So far, I think two things are at work here with the bets so far: unbridled optimism for Community's fans and/or a Line that's a tenth too low to evoke splits. Since I checked out of the show mid-season 2 (courtesy of a DVR pile-up), the latter is the rationale for my choice.

Over.

Spot said...

I'll guess it comes back even with last season's finale. Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under-1.3

Spot said...

I felt pretty good about 1.4 but decided to err on the side of pessimism. As usual I am comically incompetent at reading the room.

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