Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Monday 2/11/13

  • Are we headed for a third straight season of inexplicable ratings downturns in the week after the Grammys? If CBS and Fox are any indication, it looks like a possibility. Six of seven shows on those networks were down multiple ticks from last week, including a fairly worrying week four from The Following. And The Carrie Diaries gave back its entire rally from last week. Among returnees, the downswing was most felt in the hour that appeared to get the Super Monday bounce: How I Met Your Mother (3.2) was down 20%, and Rules of Engagement (2.8) also lost three tenths post-premiere.
  • But ABC and NBC defied that potential gravity; The Bachelor hit its highest Monday number yet, and The Biggest Loser, Deception and Castle were even-ish to up. So the jury is still out.


Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelor 8.98 2.7 +0%n/a 1/7 +8% +11% +7% 2.53
Castle 8.97 2.0 +11%+13% 4/14 +0% +11% +0% 1.81
How I Met Your Mother 8.98 3.2 -20%n/a 8/15 -6% -20% -6% 2.78
Rules of Engagement 8.39 2.8 -10%-20% 2/2 n/a -10% -26% 2.34
2 Broke Girls 10.90 3.6 -3%-10% 8/16 -5% -3% -8% 3.19
Mike and Molly 10.50 3.0 -6%-3% 8/14 -12% -6% -12% 2.58
Hawaii Five-0 9.64 2.1 -9%-6% 10/16 -22% -9% -22% 1.84
The Biggest Loser 5.58 2.0 -5%n/a 7/7 -5% -4% -67% 1.92
Deception 3.23 1.2 +9%-5% 4/6 n/a +4% -57% 1.18
Bones 8.82 2.2 -8%n/a 7/15 n/a -8% -8% 2.03
The Following 7.79 2.4 -17%-8% 4/4 n/a -17% +26% 2.32
The Carrie Diaries 1.20 0.5 -29%n/a 3/5 n/a -23% +0% 0.49
90210 0.66 0.3 -25%-29% 13/13 n/a -14% -54% 0.32

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I don't know where to ask this, so I'll post it around!

I have two questions:

1. In September 2005, as you know, Desperate Housewives premiered to an 8.9 adults 18–49 rating. What would that equate to in terms of today's ratings? I wonder the same thing about Grey's Anatomy, which premiered to a 7.2 adults 18–49 rating in March 2005. I understand you may only be able to come up with a ballpark estimate, but I'd be pleased with just that.

2. I know that Super Bowl XLVI in February 2012 stands as the most-viewed telecast in television history, but what is the highest-rated (adults 18–49) telecast in television history?

I'd be thrilled if you could answer these questions!

Spot said...

My very rough impression is that entertainment ratings have almost but not quite cut in half since that time. So I'd peg Desperate at about a 5.0, Grey's at about a 4.0 and, not that you asked, but Lost's 6.8 somewhere in the upper 3's.

In other words, there is probably not anything recently as strong as Housewives, even relatively speaking. Grey's could roughly equate to Revolution; it may even be LESS impressive since DH was a bigger relative lead-in than The Voice. And Lost could probably be put in the same general vicinity as the fall 2011 premiere of Once Upon a Time. The real difference was that all those '04-'05 shows did much, much better post-premiere.

No idea on #2, though I believe the M*A*S*H finale in 1983 still holds the record for household rating, so it might be that.

Spot said...

On this regards, do you happen to have the seasonal averages of 18-49s? It would be interested to sort of work those averages mathematically to what they would look like today. I keep track of the averages of scripted original content, but only since two seasons ago. Two years ago, it was 2.7, last year it was 2.6 and this year, so far, it is 2.2. Do you have older data? But I actually think my measure is not the best because for instance a midseason failed drama like Deception will penalize this number more than repeats (since I ignore them) even if the later actually rate lower. Same goes for reality vs. scripted, since I ignore unscripted here. But anyway, do you have any type of this numbers? I find them very interesting because they tell me that for instance Big Bang's current 5.4 average would have been about a 6.5 two years ago.

Spot said...

Wow, that's very interesting, thanks so much! I thought those premiere numbers would have equated to higher current numbers. So would The Big Bang Theory's 6.4 a few week's ago equate to a number around 11.5 back then?! (It looks like you divided the premiere numbers by roughly 1.8, so I multiplied the 6.4 by that). Sorry to bug you, but do you remember when Grey's pulled an 11.6 in February 2007? That's a few years later than the 2004-05 season, so would the calculation to find the current equivalent be different? I remember it being a really big deal when Grey's pulled that number...

Edit: And 2.5 Men's 10.7 last year would be a 19.3?! OMG.

Spot said...

That's kind of the whole point of all the A18-49+ posts. :-P Though the "league averages" used there are original scripted and unscripted together. You can get a rough idea of the league average in a given season by going to a War of 18-49 page and doing Avg times 100 divided by A18-49+.

Spot said...

I only have what I call the "league average" for entertainment programs dating back to 2006-07. Since then the league average has declined roughly 9% per year. From 2006-07 to 2012-13 it's down a little over 40%. (I recently got some numbers for a couple years before that that I haven't finished entering yet, but my impression from what I have entered is that the declines are somewhat slower prior to '06-'07.)

Grey's 11.6 and Big Bang's 6.4 are not that far apart. Grey's was about 3.1 times the '06-'07 average, while BBT was about 2.9 times the '12-'13 average (to date). And yes, Men was truly unfathomable; it was about 4.5 times the average that season!

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