Tuesday, February 26, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 2/26/13: Will CBS' Drama Premiere Strike Gold?


Tonight, CBS replaces struggling Vegas with the new drama Golden Boy, in what's currently slated as a two-week Tuesday preview before it heads to Friday. Having whiffed with most of their new shows this season (and Elementary's only barely a success), CBS is promoting this show with a certain degree of desperation. If there's even a hint of success here, that move to Friday may never come to fruition. Will CBS' drama premiere strike Gold? That's The Question for Tuesday, February 26, 2013.

Recent CBS Drama Premieres Previous Occupant Vegas
2.9 (Unforgettable, 9/20/11)
3.1 (Person of Interest, 9/22/11)
1.5 (NYC 22, 4/15/12)
2.5 (Vegas, 9/25/12)
3.1 (Elementary, 9/27/12)
2.5/1.73 (premiere/average)
1.6 -> 1.6 -> 1.9 -> 1.5 -> 1.5 (2013 eps)

This show has a somewhat interesting premise, but I'm not convinced the "rookie and veteran are working together" promos really get at it. Maybe that's a bit of a red flag, because NYC 22 proved that there's a certain level of genericness that the CBS audience won't go for. That being said, they're still snappy enough promos, and CBS is promoting this show a ton, perhaps moreso than any recent show I can remember from them. So I think this show will premiere decently: not quite at the Vegas premiere level, but in the vicinity of CBS' current solid 10:00 hour offerings and well above current Vegas. The real question is whether it stays well above current Vegas in week two. Don't be shocked if it hangs on Tuesday if so.

Over/Under: 2.25.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

14 comments:

Spot said...

Under. A 2.1

Spot said...

Under. Like omabin, I was thinking a 2.1.

Spot said...

I think 2.3 would be stretching it a bit. Under.

Spot said...

Over. Its lead-in, NCIS: LA bounced back to a 3.1 this week last year. The weak competition helps.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over. I feel as though you're underestimating this one.

Spot said...

Under, at a 1.9

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Slightly over.

Spot said...

I will go over at 2.4.

Spot said...

I'd feel more confident about my guess if Golden Boy was staying put on Tuesdays instead of getting previewed here. It makes me think CBS knows something we don't. But the incredibly weak Tuesday at 10 field gives the show a better shot. Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. 2.5.

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