Thursday, February 7, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/6/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Yesterday I suggested the gap may have closed somewhat between CSI and Chicago Fire over the two months they haven't faced each other. After finals it ended up as the smallest gap the two have had (aside from when CF had a Voice boost), but CSI and Chicago Fire were each down multiple ticks from their last airings not against the other. It's still a great result for NBC considering how much of a rout it is at 9/8c between Criminal Minds and Law and Order: SVU. The hour's biggest disappointment was ABC's Nashville, whose brief return to 2.0+ levels now feels like a long time ago.
  • Everyone being original took a toll in the first two hours, too, where usual leaders American Idol and Modern Family were both way behind previous results. Most other shows were near the low end.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 8.21 2.3 -8%n/a 9/13 -12% +77% -12% 2.29
The Neighbors 6.04 1.7 +6%+77% 13/15 n/a +6% -35% 1.66
Modern Family 9.83 3.7 -12%-15% 14/14 -33% +68% -33% 4.22
Suburgatory 5.73 2.0 +11%+68% 11/12 -23% +11% -31% 1.95
Nashville 5.30 1.7 -11%-9% 12/12 n/a +79% -32% 1.87
Person of Interest (R) 7.17 1.2 -41% +14% 1.24
Criminal Minds 11.98 2.8 -10%-20% 13/14 -15% +81% -14% 3.35
CSI 10.97 2.4 -8%-10% 6/13 -4% +60% -2% 2.46
Whitney 3.56 1.2 -8%n/a 7/8 -20% -8% -20% 1.23
Guys with Kids 3.20 1.2 +9%-8% 12/14 n/a +9% -20% 1.40
Law and Order: SVU 5.23 1.5 -12%+9% 11/12 -25% -14% +36% 1.90
Chicago Fire 6.60 1.9 -10%-12% 5/14 n/a -7% -5% 2.17
American Idol Wed 14.27 4.6 -16%n/a 4/4 -25% -16% +2% 4.67
Arrow 2.96 1.0 +11%n/a 10/13 n/a +5% +43% 1.06
Supernatural 2.29 1.0 +11%+11% 1/13 +25% +18% +186% 1.12

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

4 comments:

Spot said...

I thought it was wrong to try to predict adjustments based on the half-hours? Bill and Robert over Tv By The Numbers are always saying that at least, I don't know anything myself!

Spot said...

Wasn't really a "prediction," just me lamenting that I usually don't seem to get help in finals whenever it looks like it will be close in the prelims.


I do consider a 1.8 -> 1.9 more likely than a 1.8 -> 1.8 to get adjusted, simply because a 1.8 -> 1.9 with 1.8 for the hour is always guaranteed to be somewhere between 1.80 and 1.85 (because the lowest possible half-hours are 1.75 and 1.85, which averages to 1.80). A 1.8 -> 1.8 could be anywhere from 1.75 to 1.85. So, on average, there's less distance to get to 1.9. But that's not reason enough to have much confidence.

Spot said...

It is wrong to do that, because adjustments are independent of anything seen in the half-hours. Unfortunately, the TVBTN article which discusses this is lost to me at the moment.

Spot said...

That makes sense indeed.

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