Friday, October 26, 2012

Fox True Power Rankings, October 2012

The much-beloved True Power Rankings are BACK. I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

Two changes of note this year. First: next week, I will create a separate page for each network, and I will update those every week when I do all the SpotVault updates. This will keep the numbers linked on the right sidebar much more up to date than last year. But the full-fledged versions in which I actually write stuff will be considerably less frequent. The current plan is to do those four times: now (beginning of November sweeps), early January (beginning of midseason), late February (end of February sweeps) and late April (beginning of May sweeps/pre-upfront). Subject to change!

Second change: I'm trying yet another new "formula" for the averages below. The A18-49 and True2 averages now average the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. This seems like a decent way to quickly remove the value of inflated series premieres and give a show a larger sample if it's aired a larger number of episodes. I list how many episodes have aired (through the last full week, ending October 21) and how many of those are counted in the averages for each show.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1Family Guy2.703.4012
2New Girl2.472.7524
3The Simpsons2.413.1012

Surprise! Fox has three elite comedies, and they are the same ones as last year. The 2.8 demo on New Girl's premiere night may have been disappointing, but if it can continue to stay close to that, it will start looking like less of a fail on a year-to-year basis.

The Second-Tier Animation
4American Dad!2.012.6012
5The Cleveland Show1.942.2011
6Bob's Burgers1.802.3012

These shows, like the above shows, pretty much are what we thought they were. We don't have much of a sample size on these shows yet, but I would not expect a ton of separation. The Cleveland Show is not going to continue getting 2.2's at 7:30 once it stops getting regional NFL lead-ins, but the huge HUT decline in that hour post-football means it may not Truly drop by all that much.

The Tuesday of Patience
7Raising Hope1.591.7013
8The Mindy Project1.461.9013
9Ben and Kate1.301.3524

Want to note that Ben and Kate has a pre-debate number in here that deflates its numbers like Last Resort did on the ABC post. The weeks that both have aired: Mindy 1.99, B&K 1.95 on September 25, Mindy 1.66, B&K 1.62 on October 2 and B&K 1.47, Mindy 1.46 on October 9. In other words, I still believe the shows are about pretty close to equal thus far. Sadly, that probably does more to disparage Mindy than it does to build up B&K.

Fox DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
4The Mob Doctor0.940.9524

Fox is in the same place they were at with dramas six months ago. They have two dramas in contention, neither of which I would be all that excited about over the long-term. They will cross their fingers and hope The Following can get something going at midseason. If not, we have to look at this as a network that is almost completely out of the drama business.

Fox UnscriptedTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
1The X Factor Thu2.973.0525
2The X Factor Wed2.782.9026

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