Monday, October 8, 2012

The Question, Monday 10/8/12: Does the CW's Big Week Begin Weak?



It's go time, CW. This week they have what feels like a very high-stakes premiere on Wednesday (Arrow), then they trot out their latest post-Vampire Diaries attempt on Thursday (Beauty and the Beast). While the returns of Hart of Dixie and Supernatural last week went all right, that was kind of expected; Hart of Dixie is a young program that may have picked up some audience over the summer, while Supernatural was moving from Friday to Wednesday and facing a simulcast on the big four. If it's gonna be another brutal season on the CW, the first big warning sign probably comes tonight, when the CW goes with low-rated veterans 90210 and Gossip Girl. Does the CW's big week begin weak? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 8, 2012.

90210 Premieres/Averages/Finales Gossip Girl Premieres/Averages/Finales

2.6/1.42/1.1 (2008-09)
1.2/0.95/0.8 (2009-10)
0.9/0.87/0.8 (2010-11)
0.9/0.70/0.5 (2011-12)
1.6/1.22/1.4 (2007-08)
1.7/1.40/1.1 (2008-09)
1.4/1.09/1.1 (2009-10)
1.0/0.86/0.7 (2010-11)
0.7/0.59/0.6 (2011-12)

The Gossip Girl finale ended up outrating the 90210 finale after 90210 was consistently stronger (or less weak) for pretty much the whole season. The 0.5 finale for the Zip on 5/15/12 was the first 0.5 in the history of the series. You can say that means it'll continue to melt down, or you can say that means it'll probably get back to a more typical 0.6. While Gossip Girl had a 0.6 for the finale, 0.5 was the usual number starting in mid-February.

Over/Under: 1.15 for 90210 18-49 rating PLUS Gossip Girl 18-49 rating.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

12 comments:

Spot said...

under
two dead shows walking vs big competition

Spot said...

Under. It's gonna be a bloodbath. And as several shows have proven by now, it's clear that the whole "Viewers will return for the final season!" straw that people like to grasp for doesn't actually exist.

Spot said...

It's gonna be close, but I feel compelled to say over.

Spot said...

Over. There's some promotion behind GG's final season.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under. One could get 0.6 whilst the other gets 0.5 but I don't see them going any higher.

Spot said...

I barely follow the CW, so this one is difficult, but:


GG- 0.5
90210- 0.6


Under

Spot said...

Over. I think both will get a 0.6.

Spot said...

I want to say over, because 0.5 is pathetic even by cw standards, but I'm going to have to go with under, the voice seems fairly female skewing, and we've already seen how it can hurt other shows

Spot said...

This is a hard one - with low rated shows, precision becomes more important as each 0.1 change represents a massive percentage change in viewership. That said, going to have to go with OVER. But it would not suprise if I get it wrong...

Spot said...

Some strong competition leads me to call UNDER

Spot said...

You make it so tough on us. That's what makes it fun. I think the way to go is negative. Two .5s for a total of 1.0. Under.


The sad thing is...I still think I'm a bit optimistic.

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