Monday, October 1, 2012
With a full premiere week in the books, Revolution remains the season's biggest premiere to date by a pretty long shot. It began on pre-premiere Monday with 11.65 million viewers and a 4.1 demo. Its lead-in was also huge (The Voice averaged a 5.1 demo in the 9:30 half-hour), but this show did a better job of holding onto it than most people expected.
In week two, Revolution had to square off with the returns of staple dramas Hawaii Five-0 and Castle, but it turned out they weren't much trouble. Both underperformed, and Revolution (3.4) dropped 17% to a 3.4 demo and remained well over a point ahead of the both of them.
I've mentioned on a couple occasions that I'm adding the option to defer a First Two Weeks prognosis to week three. Essentially that option is tailor-made for genre shows, which far and away have the greatest tendency to drastically change in prognosis several weeks beyond the premiere (usually for the worse). Yeah, the premiere did great, but 17% is on the high-side of a normal week two drop. So I should defer it, right?
Well... the thing is, this show still has a lot of cushion, and this wasn't even as bad as your average 17% drop since the ABC and CBS competition got stronger in the hour. (Plus, The Voice lead-in got a touch weaker.) I'd like to save the deferrals for 1) genuinely marginal starts (like last year's Pan Am/Revenge), 2) the shows that take big drops in week two and have some but not a ton of cushion left (Mr. Sunshine) and 3) the shows that face some pending uncertainty in week three (Alcatraz). I don't really think Revolution's drop is big enough or cushion small enough to put it in #2. I'll probably regret this in 24 hours when the show plummets sub-3.0, but I'm saying Renew.
"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.