Friday, October 26, 2012

CW True Power Rankings, October 2012


The much-beloved True Power Rankings are BACK. I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

Two changes of note this year. First: next week, I will create a separate page for each network, and I will update those every week when I do all the SpotVault updates. This will keep the numbers linked on the right sidebar much more up to date than last year. But the full-fledged versions in which I actually write stuff will be considerably less frequent. The current plan is to do those four times: now (beginning of November sweeps), early January (beginning of midseason), late February (end of February sweeps) and late April (beginning of May sweeps/pre-upfront). Subject to change!

Second change: I'm trying yet another new "formula" for the averages below. The A18-49 and True2 averages now average the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. This seems like a decent way to quickly remove the value of inflated series premieres and give a show a larger sample if it's aired a larger number of episodes. I list how many episodes have aired (through the last full week, ending October 21) and how many of those are counted in the averages for each show.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1The Vampire Diaries1.391.3012
2Arrow1.231.3012
3Supernatural0.841.0013

Supernatural took a huge dip this Wednesday, not yet included above. That might push it down a notch, but for now it still looks like this season may once again not be the end for Supernatural. Arrow also took a dip to a 1.1. Still strong, but now the CW is just crossing their fingers that the show will continue to have a "1" on the left side of the decimal point over the long term.

The Second Tier
4America's Next Top Model Fall0.660.5338
5Beauty and the Beast0.620.7012
6Hart of Dixie0.580.6013
7902100.560.6012

You have to give the CW a ton of credit for tanking the rest of their ratings so hard that Top Model once again looks like a show that deserves to stick around, especially once week-to-week drops from the other shows are incorporated in the next version. Oh, wait, that's not credit-worthy.

The Dunzo...?
8Gossip Girl0.410.4012
9Emily Owens M.D.0.410.5011
10Nikita0.330.3011

The first one is ending. The second one certainly doesn't seem to have any real hope, especially since this week's drop to 0.3 isn't in there. The third one... well, I guess it'll be our best test yet of the true value of syndication. Even being able to recoup half a season of production costs from four seasons of syndication seems optimistic, and I don't know that a season four looks like a good deal even if half of it is "paid for" in that sense. I guess there isn't much else to say till the upfronts roll around.

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