Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Question, Thursday 10/11/12: Ratings Beauty or Ratings Beast?


One night after Arrow brought some much-needed promising news to the CW, the network dips right back into the series premiere pool with new The Vampire Diaries lead-out Beauty and the Beast. The reviews have been putrid (35 Metacritic as of this writing), and the CW still hasn't been able to get anything to stick in the post-TVD slot. But the TVD lead-in has helped previous occupants to at least open somewhat respectably, and the big four simulcasting a debate tonight should be an advantage competition-wise. Is this show a ratings beauty or a ratings beast? That's The Question for Thursday, October 11, 2012.

Recent CW Drama Series Premieres This Season's CW Premieres
1.2 (Hellcats, 9/8/10)
1.4 (Nikita, 9/9/10) (TVD 1.6)
1.2 (Ringer, 9/13/11)
1.3 (The Secret Circle, 9/15/11) (TVD 1.5)
0.8 (Hart of Dixie, 9/26/11)
1.3 (Arrow, 10/10/12) (preliminary)
0.7 (Hart of Dixie, 10/2/12)
0.8 (Supernatural, 10/3/12)
0.4 (90210, 10/8/12)
0.4 (Gossip Girl, 10/8/12)
1.3 (Arrow, 10/10/12) (preliminary)

The Vampire Diaries lead-outs (in bold) have historically done a little better than the non-TVD lead-outs on premiere night. I don't expect that streak to continue with BatB and Arrow, but I do see it holding a pretty decent chunk of the TVD audience as an alternative to the simulcast vice presidential debate on the big four. A big part of this question is where TVD premieres; it began with a 1.5 and ended with a 1.2 last season. So it'll probably be somewhere in the low 1's.

Over/Under: 0.95.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

12 comments:

Spot said...

I'm not confident, but over.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

So Nikita & TSC both lost two tenths of the lead-in, I doubt The Vampire Diaries would do worse than a 1.2 tonight so I'll guess that B&TB is very similar and goes over.

Spot said...

Under.
I'm only 51% sure, though with some other lead-in I would be 100% sure. Those promos looked like footage lost by highschool kids, subsequently killed by witches or whatever as usual (kind of deserved considering low quality of video material they made).

Spot said...

I think I'll go with under. Negative publicity going in. Vampire Diaries will likely be slightly weaker. I'll say it gets a .9.

Spot said...

I have much more confidence in the CW after last night, so I will make the same guess as yesterday.


1.0 rating (but that is over this time)

Spot said...

I do think debuting opposite the debate helped Supernatural. And the Smallville connection could help. I'm not incredibly confident but I'll go over.

Spot said...

Under. 0.8. I was pessimistic about Arrow last night and was happily proven wrong but I am pessimistic again here. I just dont see this show working. I see vampire diaries doing a 1.3, same as arrow tonight btw.

Spot said...

Over. Between the debate and the TVD leadout, it'll get that 1... for now!

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.

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