Wednesday, October 3, 2012

The Question, Wednesday 10/3/12: How Neighborly is the 8:30 Timeslot?


In a very underwhelming traditional premiere week for new show debuts, the biggest of the week raw numbers-wise was one of the most critically-loathed shows of them all: ABC's comedy The Neighbors, airing after megahit Modern Family. But premiering the biggest is no guarantee of success, as the biggest premiere week premiere two years ago ($#!* My Dad Says) can attest. And The Neighbors won't even have the long-term lead-in support that Bleep had; instead, it moves to the 8:30 slot tonight and follows much more middling The Middle. How neighborly is the 8:30 slot for The Neighbors? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 3, 2012.

ABC Comedy Wednesday Premieres Week Twos with Big Lead-in Drops
2.9 (The Middle, 8/7c)
5.5 (Modern Family, 9/8c)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9:30/8:30c)
-36% (Happy Endings) (2.8 -> 1.8)
-35% (Up All Night) (3.7 -> 2.4)
-38% (Free Agents) (2.1 -> 1.3)

I couldn't think of a lot of precedents for this kind of situation, but the ones I did think of took really big drops. And I'm pretty sure the critics hate The Neighbors more than they hated any of those shows. That said, The Middle is still a more reasonable lead-in than some of these shows had in week two. If pre-tune-in is a thing, The Neighbors may suffer a bit from the 5.0+ Modern Family audience not turning to ABC early; the net instead will broadcast a debate tonight starting at 9/8c.

Over/Under: 2.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

12 comments:

Spot said...

Under. Close, but under.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. I'd estimate a 2.2 for tonight.

Spot said...

Over. I imagine it to fit well with The Middle so I'd be quite surprised if it were to go under.

Spot said...

Under, around 1.6.
People gathered last week just to see if it's so bad it's funny. That + not as strong lead-in this week = 50% drop.

Spot said...

Over- it takes a lot for a show to drop by more than a point in a week- 2.3

Spot said...

Over. 2.1. Its half-hour drop last week from 3.5 to 3.0 means only 1 out of 7 people changed the channel in disgust / disinterest.

Spot said...

Under.
In the off-chance, The Middle maintains it's premiere numbers, I'd say 1.7.
If The Middle drops to 2.5, I'd say 1.5

Spot said...

I'm probably going to regret this but over

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